Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Gameweek 22 Preview

Last week made waves in the fantasy league for all the wrong reasons. One team in my mini league scored zero as his only two starting players were Phil Neville (2 points) and captain Darren Fletcher (-2). Those with Tevez will have fared better, especially if they captained him, though points elsewhere were hard to find. While embarrassing to score down in the 20s, chances are you only lost a few points on your competitors. This week is more important. Playing double gameweeks well (or poorly) can make or break your league and with four of the best fantasy squads around playing twice, there could be some very large scores around this week.

Man United, Arsenal, Spurs, Liverpool, Bolton and Hull all play twice and some fantasy value can be had from each of these squads

* For United I think Rooney and Valencia are incredibly good starts this week and are close to being the pick at each of their respective positions. Defensively, United are hard to judge but I am confident Brown will play and becomes a great option. Evra is a great player and may even justify some captain consideration.

* Arsenal give us the best midfielder of the week - Fabregas - who could return to the heights of weeks 8-12 with a double digit performance. The back line is also a good play though Bolton have been in good home form so I wouldn't rush to pickup 2 Arsenal defenders unless you already own them. For Traore owners, Clichy looks like he might return but Wenger says he does not wish to rush him so stay tuned.

* Torres picked up a knock tonight in the cup but the early signs are that he'll be good to go and is of course a great play. The defense is a useful play and with decent fixtures ahead they might be a decent buy low option.

* Lennon is expected to miss the Liverpool game so becomes too risky despite the double gameweek. I like Modric alot, and although I had suggested delaying his purchase until the fixtures got better, the double gameweek means he is a buy prospect now. The defense is an okay play and worth a look as the fixtures start to open up soon defensively.

*Bolton and Hull provide good depth players who will at least give you 4 points if they play. Hunt and Taylor are the obvious candidates while both defenses should be avoided.

Clean Sheet Rankings
  1. Man United (0.4 and 0.4)
  2. Arsenal (1.1 and 0.9)
  3. Chelsea (0.4)
  4. Tottenham (0.4 and 2.3)
  5. Aston Villa (0.4)
  6. Liverpool (1.4 and 1.0)
  7. Blackburn (0.8)
  8. Stoke (0.8)
  9. Birmingham (1.1)
  10. Wolves (1.1)
  11. Portsmouth (1.2)
  12. Man City (1.3)
  13. Fulham (1.3)
  14. Everton (1.5)
  15. Wigan (1.8)
  16. West Ham (1.8)
  17. Bolton (3.1 and 3.6)
  18. Sunderland (3.1)
  19. Hull (4.3 and 4.0)
  20. Burnley (4.7)
The top 6 teams are all really good plays and I would be aiming to try and get 4 defenders from this group this week if you can. Be careful though with United players as remember they, along with City Hull and Stoke, have no game in week 23.

Captain Rankings
  1. Rooney
  2. Fabregas
  3. Valencia
  4. Arshavin
  5. Torres*
  6. Defoe
  7. Gerrard*
  8. Eduardo
  9. Modric
  10. Evra
*Check injury status

I am currently riding high after last week's Tevez tip so I am bound to crash and burn with the picks this week. In truth, their isn't too much to pick between the top 4 and I wouldn't argue if you liked any of them more than the other. Check back later in the week on Torres and Gerrard's injury status but if they go, then they're excellent plays this week. My only issue with Rooney is the chance of squad rotation due to the League Cup semi finals also being played but I am still confident he will give top returns this week.

Post your thoughts and questions below or @plfantasy to discuss your transfers and lineup questions.

26 comments:

Elliot said...

Would you leave Kuscazk in net or bring in VDS?

I was thinking if VDS plays 1 of the 2 games in the double GW I think it's worth it since he'll start in goal from then on.

Steven said...

Good question, of course I transferred out Sorensen for Kuszczak only today to find out van der sar has resumed training.. ugh! Joe Hart, get ready buddy :)

auburn.tigers2011 said...

Hey guys I need some advice here...

I have one more spot to fill for this week and I am choosing between Tevez, Hunt, and Ivanovic. I currently have them ranked in the previous order of who I want to play with Tevez leading big because of his amazing form. However, with Hunt having a DGW and Ivanovic having a good shot at a clean sheet I thought I would run it past you guys to see what y'all thought.

Thanks in advance.

Ryan said...

Tevez may be worth considering. EV's strikeforce has recently shown some resurgence, but their defence is still somewhat porous.

Ivanovic is also worth a punt because CH host SU at Stamford Bridge. SU may have injury problems, but as recent form suggests, CH's defense is also not bulletproof (1 clean sheet in the last 6 matches) and Darrent Bent could even score a goal.

I don't think Hunt will give much returns bcoz HC has 2 away games against TH who are in a bit of a purple patch defensively (4 clean sheets in their last 4 games) and MU who might start getting cleanies with VDS coming back.

Tough call bro. Ivanovic might concede but he at least compensates with an assist or two. But Tevez is currently on fire. Hope this helps!

auburn.tigers2011 said...

Thanks Ryan, you gave me what I needed to start Tevez.

Ryan said...

Auburn, no worries mate!

Chris (or anyone else interested), I'm having a huge dilemma over whether to put Roo or Fab as captain.

One one hand, Roo does remarkably well at home against teams with crappy defences, notching double digit scores in the 2 matches before the 1-1 draw with BI. BU and HC look like the perfect victims, playing at Old Trafford. Besides, Roo has a week's rest between both matches, unlike Fab who only has 3 days.

On the other hand, Fab is also awesome and should be involved in most of AR's goals. Also, BW tends to leak goals. Plus, MU has recently been lacking in attacking tenacity.

After considering the pros and cons, would you go for Roo or Fab? What's your take on this?

Steven said...

I have the same dilemma. I'm starting Rooney reluctantly because of the two home fixtures against teams that have give up a combined 57 goals away this year in 20 matches. Plus like you said, he's coming off rest and is stellar at home.

As for Fabregas, he's coming back from injury (which I don't think even matters considering he's proven this isn't a factor in the past) and is facing the same team twice. 47 goals allowed for Bolton total this year and they've actually fared better on the road. I think Bolton will find him hard to contain in both games, I just worry about the fitness of his surrounding teammates with Denilson and Walcott looking iffy.

Ok maybe I convinced myself to change, but I feel like the safer play is Rooney.

Ryan said...

LOL yeah Denilson and Walcott are often plagued by injuries. However, that might not be an issue as Fabregas seems to cope well with their absence. And as you say, returning from injury need not necessarily affect his point-scoring abilities. He may not even start both matches and still 'do an Aston Villa' twice!

Having said that, the more-rest-is-best strategy is equally appealing! Dammit I'm going round in circles really! And I have a good feeling about Rooney. Burnley is currently in decline, their misery exacerbated by Owen Coyle's exit. Hull's defence is a laughing stock! And also taking into account Chris's stats, all arrows seem to be pointing to Rooney.

OK so that makes me 51% confident of Roo. I'll probably end up tossing a coin for this one! Anyway, thanks for your input!

Andrew said...

I think you guys are delusional as to the effectiveness of Cesc this week. Bolton are a rather physical side and will hound him all game with minor fouls to make sure he can't be comfortable. I would be shocked if he played more than 120 minutes between the two games simply because Bolton are a physical teams and Wenger shouldn't risk him being so fresh off injury.

Rooney comes up against two absolutely embarassing defences, at home, a week apart. That gives time for minor niggles to heal. Hull and Burnley are the last two teams on the clean sheet rankings. I personally guarantee returns for United. I think I would even captain Valencia ahead of Fabregas this week.

As for the Tevez/ Ivanovic/ Hunt question. Wow I'm jealous, I wish that was a problem I was having. All 3 are good picks this week. I would go with Tevez simply because of form. Its tough to ignore someone in such incredible goalscoring form when they play a team that has been unable to gel this season due to injuries.

Chris Glover said...

Elliot - There are suggestions VDS will return on the weekend so Kuscazk is a risk. That said, if he is benched then barring an injury your sub will come in anyway.

Auburn - I would be going all out for dble gameweek players this week. @Eve isn't a great fixture (1.5 GPG) so Tevez is good but not great value. Ivanovic has a good chance at a clean sheet but Chelsea have looked shaky. Could you afford Valencia or perhaps Wes Brown?

Ryan - I love Fabregas and think he's the best player in the league. However, Rooney has 2 dynamite fixtures and his form and the oppoisiton are a perfect storm. For me he is the best pick of the week and the only risk is him being rested (which is also a risk for Cesc)

Andrew - I think youre right, Valencia is close to Cesc this week such are Utd's fixtures.

Thanks for posting guys. I have brought in Rooney for Torres and I am considering using my spare cash to get Valencia and pay the 4 points. This leaves me with 3 players out next week though which is a huge risk.

auburn.tigers2011 said...

Chris, yea I've had Valencia for like 5 weeks and I picked up Wes Brown 2 weeks ago. The only players I have starting that do not have a DGW are Tevez and Sorensen.

By the way, whats the thought on starting Sorensen over Hart? I was starting Hart but changed once Torres, Gerrard, and Benayoun got hurt.

NotoriousDre said...

Chris,

i picked up Tevez a few gameweeks ago and have reaped the benefits. But im considering him....(until gameweek 24)

Tevez & Garrido for Defoe, Dawson

what do u think about this side

Hart
Evra Ivan Dawson
Milner, Cesc, Demps, Lamps
Defoe Rooney(C) Klasnic

still thinking about it...i just hope Tevez goes easy at Everton

Open to getting Brown instead of Dawson

opinions?

NotoriousDre said...

i forgot my bench....

Sorensen Lee Ridgewell Mears

Ryan said...

Andrew - I think you've got a point. We shouldn't get too caught up in historical data (eg. Fab's 27-minute rampage against Villa) and lest we forget to make decisions based on predictions, which is essentially the whole point of the game!

Chris - Thanks! I'm now convinced to stick to Rooney.

Auburn - I'm in a similar quandary about which goalkeeper to use.

a) Hart plays PO at Fratton Park - PO these days have a higher tendency to score at home, while BI's defence has been phenomenal of late. So these 2 things cross each other out, or do they?

b) Sorensen looks attractive at home, especially now that LI are without Gerrard, Torres & Benayoun. But with the latest news linking Sorensen to other European clubs and with David James possibly joining Stoke, we (or is it just me?) can't be sure that Sorensen will play in GW 22, or even be in the right frame of mind to keep clean sheets.

Stoke has a bye in GW 23 so I'm thinking of selling Shawcross for Dawson in time for GW 22 because of the double. Problem is, I've already made 2 transfers. Is it really worth sacrifing another 4 points for this?

Opinions, anyone?

Andrew said...

Ryan - I don't think that transfer is worth the hit. I think Stoke will keep a cleanie this week against Liverpool. Torres, Gerrard and Benayoun has combined for 22 of the 36 goals for Liverpool. Not only will the finishing be lacking, but the creativity and leadership will be gone too.

Dre - I don't think I would transfer Tevez out yet. Sure he doesn't play next week, but his next 3 weeks should see more goals/assists, and its capped off with a double. I would go with Dawson over Brown to make sure you're not double up on ManU defenders. Also Dawson could be considered for next week too. Plus he's cheaper than Brown.

I've decided on my side for the week:
Given me Hart atacks:
Hart
EVRA ivanovic FAYE dawson
ARSHAVIN valencia TAYLOR
AGBONLAHOR rooney(c) RODALLEGA

GIVEN duff ELLIOTT baird

Best part is that I don't have to use any transfers so I can make two freebies next week to get rid of valencia and/or evra.

Steven said...

Right or wrong I sacrificed 8 points to get 2 additional 2 GW players. I think it's worth the risk.

hakim said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
hakim said...

hye guys. this is my first post here. would like some advice on my lineup. currently my team

hart
dunne cahill zabaleta
fab arsh diaby valencia milner
roo tevez

i would like to add krancjar/modric(maybe both) plus defoe. could you suggest which pair i should drop?i would like to drop arsh+diaby and upgrade to modric+kranc.but i've gut that arsh will perform since fab is returning from injury. but his performance in the last 5 games was frustrating. i just dont wanna regret not having any spurs player after this GW. the fact that defoe scored hatrrick last time at hull and the sluggish performance from liver just make feel this will be spurs week. would love to hear from you guys. thanx in advance

Chris Glover said...

Auburn - 9 players on a double gameweek! very nicely done. I only have 5 but I'm pretty happy with the Rooney/Cesc/Valencia combo.
I have Stoke ranked slightly ahead of Birmingham this week - and that does not factor in the absense of Torres and Gerrard. If Sorensen goes he looks like a good play.

Dre - I think switching out Tevez this week is a decent option providing you are happy to use another transfer to bring him back in week 24 when City have a nice run of games. Defoe is a good pickup while I like but don't love Spurs' defense. I personally like Brown over Dawson but Brown could well be due for a return to the bench as Ferdinand nears fitness so Dawson is a better long term bet. Andrew also has a good point about doubling up on United defenders though this week I think this is a sound strategy. It does give you three Utd players out in week 23 though so it is not without risk.

Ryan - I wouldnt pay 4 points to get Dawson as although the double gameweek is appealing Spurs' game @Liv is tough despite Liverpool's injuries. Liverpool haven't been shutout at Anfield all season. On the road they are a different story and I like Stoke to have a chance at a clean sheet. Spurs' other game is very good (Hull) but chances are they get one clean sheet at best which I think you get an equal shot at with Stoke.

Andrew - the team is looking good. If you have the cash I would consider using my transfer to maximise the double gameweek, perhaps bringing in Modric for Taylor or Defoe/Eduardo for Agbonlahor. But holding out for next week is also a sound strategy as many people will be scrambling to move out Utd players and you'll be well placed to capitalise.

Steven - I paid 4 points this week too. Double gameweeks are one of the few times when paying for transfers can work. If the fixtures are good and you're current player doesn't look like a good play then the 4 points can often be justified.

Thanks for all the posts - some great discussion this week

NotoriousDre said...

@ Andrew...im bring Tevez back for gw24

Chris, i'll go with Dawson...this way i will be able to field a full 11 next gameweek with taking a points hit...

Chris Glover said...

Hakim - welcome to the blog, thanks for posting. Spurs are a good play this week but I think it's a risk to pay 4 points and lose 2 Arsenal players. Arshavin and Diaby should both play twice hence getting you 8 points. Assuming they get the odd assist, goal or bonus point between them, you're looking as double digits already. Factor in the 4 point transfer hit and you need Modric and Kranjcar to get 14 points just to break even.

Factor in that Arsenal's fixtures are actually better (2.1 GPG and 1.88 GPG vs 2.6 GPG and 1.1 GPG) and it leads me to the conclusion that I would stick with your Arsenal pair. Spurs' next three fixtures (Ful, @Bir and Ast) also aren't great so I would be loathed to be too heavily into them right now.

Cahill is a risky play this week and might be a candidate for you to transfer out. Brown, Shawcross and Dawson all play twice and would give a good value upgrade over the Bolton ace.

Defoe scares me just because he has generally been pretty average this year but has had 2 season changing games, one of which came against Hull in August. He is a good bet in the double gameweek but I wouldn't bring him in for Rooney though he is a short term upgrade over Tevez (gameweeks 22 and 23)

Andrew said...

Chris - I think it would be a mistake to transfer Taylor out. Not only because he too has a double gameweek, but because Arsenal are week at defending set-plays. A fact even more likely to be highlighted by the lack of Song, the biggest of the regular backline. Taylor takes the free-kicks for Bolton, and I expect some results from that and along with any goal/assist would come the bonus points.

Dre- Depending on how long ago you picked up Tevez, would you be able to afford him financially to bring him back in? Just something to consider.

Chris Glover said...

Andrew - Ive nothing against Taylor this week and would rate him highly among all mids. I just like Modric a bit more. Whether that justifies a transfer or not is up for debate. I would do it because I like Modric alot going forward but for this week I agree theyre pretty close.

hakim said...

i will take ur advice. but cahill looks promising next week when bolton host burnley. another reason for me not to drop him. maybe i will drop zaba and upgrade to dawson since city will have no game next week.anyway thanx mate and looking forward to add more post here. cheers =)

David said...

As much as i think bolton are a side slipping backwards, they do have some decent matches coming up as well as a few postponed matches that need to find their way into the schedule somehow. on that basis I recommend gary cahill as a good pick. Ill be keeping him for a little while longer.

表情 said...

我是天山,等待一輪明月。.........................