Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Goalkeeper Strategy II

This season I have used a combination of two keepers (Hart and Sorensen) playing the one each week with the the best matchup and factoring in Birmingham's comparative home advantage (4 goals conceded in 7 games). I think this gives you the best chance to win as regardless of how good your top 'keeper is, you must still invest 4m on a sub. So, why play Petr Cech every week including when he faces United and Arsenal when you get a pair of budget 'keepers and never play anyone in the top half of the table?

Let's look at how this strategy has fared so far this season:


To date I played each keeper as highlighted in green, based on the matchup rankings I post each week. This has led me to score 69 points through 14 weeks out of a possible 79. If I had simply played Sorensen every week I would have scored 64. Compare this with scores of 59 for Given (25% owned), 58 for Cech (14% owned) and 53 for Reina (7% owned) and the value of the budget keeper becomes clear. While I accept the difference between the rotation strategy and simply playing Sorensen every week is small, this is largely due to the incredible value of Sorensen together with Stoke's relatively easy schedule to date. As these matchups get harder it will be important to have a pair of budget keepers to allow for proper rotation should you choose to go this route.

Complimentary Combinations
Given my desire to save cash at the keeper position I am only considering Sorensen, Hart, Jensen and Robinson who all cost below 4.5m and have each notched 50 points this year.
Over the next 10 weeks, the average opponent's GPG you will face by having the following pair of 'keepers is as below:
  • Robinson and Jensen - 1.04 (8.6m)
  • Hart and Jensen - 1.08 (8.4m)
  • Hart and Robinson - 1.11 (8.6m)
  • Robinson and Sorensen - 1.17 (8.8m)
  • Sorensen and Jensen - 1.26 (8.6m)
  • Hart and Sorensen - 1.34 (8.6m)
The best schedule you can get by playing one keeper is Shay Given's 1.14 due to City's excellent schedule from weeks 18-24). Given and the cheapest player available will cost you 9.6m which is 1m more than most of the above pairings. If you can afford this extra cash without hurting your team then it is tempting to recommend getting Given, in light of City's extraordinarily easy schedule (no other team is below 1.30).

It's tough to get rid of Sorensen before week 20 as he faces two opponents with GPG under 1.25 and I might stay put until then. The downside of this is having to either Chelsea or @Man City in week 19 so it becomes a tough decision. All four keepers have a decent matchup this week so we have another week to decide but with Stoke on a bye next week, you need to decide on how to juggle your keepers very soon.

As always, why not post your thoughts below or tweet @plfantasy.

4 comments:

NotoriousDre said...

a must needed update on the goalkeeper position Chris.

Im concerned with Jensen. I feel the league is starting to figure them out. But at his value he is still a great pickup.

Your analysis will make me re-evaluate my pair of Hart & Soresen. Thanks

NotoriousDre said...

Chris,

would be interesting to see your analysis for the whole second half of the season.

i like to set my keepers and leave them

Mish said...

nice timely post Chris.
I'll go for Robinson next week.

And like Dre said, looking forward to see your second half of the season analysis.

Chris Glover said...

Yeh good call guys, I couldn't decide between 10-12 weeks and the whole season myself. I'll post the whole season after I do this week's preview which is already a bit late.