Thursday, December 17, 2009

Gameweek 18 Preview

Gameweek 18 Fixtures
Portsmouth v Liverpool

Aston Villa v Stoke City

Blackburn v Tottenham

Fulham v Man Utd

Man City v Sunderland

Arsenal v Hull City

Wolves v Burnley

Everton v Birmingham

West Ham v Chelsea

Wigan v Bolton


Alot of us suffered a tough gameweek over the midweek games and will be looking to bounce back here. Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool all face comparatively weak opposition and so there should be plenty of goals to go around. The premium players should be back in force with Drogba expected to be fit and Torres should surely get a start after his midweek goal. Fabregas appears likely to miss out but his injury is less serious than expected and he could figure next week.

Clean Sheet Rankings (adjusted GPG in parentheses)
  1. Aston Villa (0.6) - HOLD
  2. Arsenal (0.8) - HOLD
  3. Man City (1.0) - BUY
  4. Man Utd (1.1) - BUY
  5. Wolves (1.3) - HOLD
  6. Blackburn (1.3) - HOLD/SELL
  7. Liverpool (1.4) - BUY
  8. Portsmouth (1.4) - SELL
  9. Wigan (1.4) - HOLD
  10. Birmingham (1.4) - BUY
  11. Chelsea (1.5) - BUY
  12. Everton (1.5) - SELL
  13. Fulham (1.5) - SELL
  14. Bolton (1.6) - HOLD
  15. Tottenham (1.6) - BUY
  16. Stoke (1.6) - HOLD
  17. Sunderland (1.9) - SELL
  18. Burnley (2.1) - HOLD
  19. West Ham (2.3) - SELL
  20. Hull (2.9) - SELL
The top of the list is dominated by premium teams but budget options can still be found even within these premium backlines. Warnock (4.9m) provides a good option at Villa, Silvestre (4.4) should get a game this week for Arsenal while De Laet (4.5m) apparently impressed Ferguson and could get another start for United this week. Chelsea don't have a great fixture after their poor run of form but West Ham's solid home GPG score of 1.9 is skewed somewhat by their early form and the 5 goals they put past Burnley. I'd be pretty happy starting anyone from Chelsea up this week but be mindful that the above represents the season's form and extra consideration for form needs to be added in (I am trying to devise a new formula to do this).

Captain Rankings
  1. Didier Drogba
  2. Fernando Torres
  3. Andrei Arshavin
  4. Frank Lampard
  5. Nicolas Anelka
  6. Darren Bent
  7. Richard Dunne
  8. Emmanuel Adebayor
  9. Hugo Rodallega
  10. Eduardo
Drogba is obviously a massive risk this week and I will be looking for some positive confirmation that he will play before I hand him the armband this week. That said, West Ham are giving up 2.38 GPG and I can't see them stopping Drogba and co this week. I equally love Torres this week even though the fixture isn't quite as good on paper (Portsmouth only give up 1.5 GPG at home). No defense is a match for a fully fit Torres and I am hoping that after only playing for just 30 minutes midweek the Spanish hitman will be back to full strength. Fabregas would have been the top pick this week as Hull surrender 2.63 GPG but in his place I like Arshavin to step up and have a big game. The lack of other Arsenal stars means that only Eduardo also cracks the top 10. The Villa defense looks like the best pick this week and the goal and bonus threat from Dunne makes him a great play this week.

African Nations
With just three gameweeks until most African players depart, its time to start considering whether to sell them now of wait until the death. Drogba is a great play this week but next week Chelsea travel to stingy Birmingham and that could be a window to switch Drogba for Torres or Rooney before the masses sell him and his value falls. Adebayor is out of form and might be a sell now anyway. Not many other players are widely owned enough to justify selling early so I'd only sell when they leave.

Why not post your lineup and transfer questions below or tweet them @plfantasy.

12 comments:

NotoriousDre said...

hey Chris,

like u im waiting on the medical reports on friday.

I hope Didier will play....and im prepared to hold on to Cesc even if he is injured for a couple gameweeks. Reason being that alot of folks in my mini leage would have to downgrade some part of their team to get him back in if they sell him now....

Steven said...

You need to use a new picture of Torres :)

Mish said...

looking for Brown replacement.
Warnock or Dawson?

Declan said...

Who should you bring in for Adeybour, any tips anyone? Even though Ecerton are terrible at the back, they are still scoring, would Saha be a good cheap option? Any help much appreciated

David said...

very stoked with how that arshavin transfer worked out. And that arsenal double gw is back as well. extra stoked.

Personally i think the cesc injury is a great chance to differentiate and find a new bandwagon. I hope the competition panics

Steven said...

Declan,

My team is doing pretty terrible at the moment, but if I had my way, I'd say you'd want either Defoe, Agbonlahor, or Saha. Saha is the highest risk/reward guy because he seems to be in and out of the starting XI. Defoe has a tough schedule ahead. Agbonlahor seems to be the most consistent however with little to no upside. What you see is what you get. My front 3 right now is Defoe/Bent/Drogba

Chris Glover said...

Steve - duly noted, you're right. I need to refresh my stock pictures of players.

Mish - I am in the same position and I'm leaning towards Warnock due to Villa's fixture. I think Silvestre is also a short term pickup along with De Laet if you want to keep the Utd theme.

Declan - I think to replace Ade you need to either go big (Torres or Rooney) or sell him for a cheaper option like Bent and re-invest the money elsewhere. Saha is a solid pick due to Everton's good fixtures while Defoe is always solid though his fixtures aren't too good.

David - you could be right about cesc, this is a great time to differentiate your team. I am planning to sit on him for fear of losing 0.6m but I can certainly see the advantage of selling. I really like Arshavin due to his ability to score from nowhere though I havent yet seen his top form from last year yet. I really like Rodallega if you want to save cash and Wigan's fixtures are decent starting this week with Bolton. He's still only held by 9% owners too.

skipdeedy said...

I imagine there's going to be an almightly dump of Drogba as soon as this game week closes. I'm thinking Torres as I have Defoe and Rooney, but what's the general consensus? Move the money to the midfield with the purchase of Arshavin?

I lost faith in Ade a few game weeks ago. Wouldn't consider him at all. He didn't have one single shot on target against Spurs, and didn't fare much better the week before that either.

The kicker for me is that I've had Drogba from the very start and his value has skyrocketed beyond what I paid for him. Hopefully his value falls considerably, but I doubt it.

Thinking about bringing Mascherano this week for Huddlestone based on Chris's advice mid-week. Is there a better choice this week in the 4.5 – 5.5 max price range?

skipdeedy said...

If only I could have Phil 'The Power' Taylor up front.

skipdeedy said...

Apologies for 3-in-a-row but I've just read disturbing reports that Collins in 'out of favour' at Villa. Should I look to transfer asap?

Chris Glover said...

Skip - Not sure what to make of Collins. I was really high on him but Cuellar seems to be in favour. I think Warnock is a safe pick and provides the best access to the solid Vila defense.

Totally agree about Ade - I was high on him but I'm totally done with him through the African Nations and beyond. He looks uncommitted and the system doesnt suit him. Bad choice for 10m.

I highly recommend Torres to replace Drogba and think pairing him with Rooney is an excellent choice. As a Torres owner i am looking to bring in Rooney next week.

For 4.5 - 5.5 I like:
1. N Zogbia (fixtures)
2. Etherington (double gwk)
3. Nenad Milijas (fixtures/upside)
4. Mascherano (consistency/bonus)
5. Cohen (double gwk/price)

Mmmarek83 said...

news about swp or david dunn?