Monday, December 14, 2009

Gameweek 17 Preview

Gameweek 17 Fixtures
Sunderland v Aston Villa

Birmingham v Blackburn

Bolton v West Ham

Man Utd v Wolves

Burnley v Arsenal

Chelsea v Portsmouth

Liverpool v Wigan

Tottenham v Man City


The most important issue this week are the four teams on a buy and what you should do with their players. To briefly sum up my thoughts:
  • Stoke - Sorensen has been in incredible form (35 points in 4 games) of late thanks to 3 penalty saves in that period. The defense hasn't actually been that good with just 3 clean sheets in the last 11 games though the Stoke defense as a whole remains okay value for the time being. The next two games after the bye are tough and so you might consider selling but unless you need to play them this week or next, I would simply bench my Stoke defenders and hold them for the double gameweek 20. I don't like the attack as much and I think Etherington is the only legitimate fantasy option for now. Sanli Tuncay intrigues me for the future but until he proves his ability to play every week I'd stay away. Etherington remains a hold despite the off week.
  • Fulham - Fulham's offensive fixtures are awful with no less than 6 red light games between now and week 24. Considering their off week, I consider all Fulham forwards and midfielders sell options as better value can be found elsewhere: Duff (Etherington, N'Zogbia), Dempsey (Dunn, Reid), Zamora (Fletcher, Doyle). The defensive fixtures are slightly better but the double gameweek is marred by having to go to Chelsea and I think better value can be found in the short to mid term future. They become decent value again from week 21 onwards but until then I would move on.
  • Everton - Everton's defense is overpriced right now anyway and has been a sell option for weeks. The off week only serves to make this matter more urgent and you should dump Baines and co immediately. If you can afford to rotate him, I think Saha is a hold due to Everton's decent fixtures from weeks 18-25. If you need to replace him I'd go for Rodallega, Franco or Benitez. None of Everton's other players are widely held - and with good reason.
  • Hull - Awful defensive fixtures and tough attacking fixtures make pretty much all Hull players sells right now though I think Hunt is the only one you should be looking at anyway. At 5.2m he is good value regardless of fixture, but I might take a shot with N'Zogbia, Elliot or Boateng for the next few weeks.
Liverpool, United and Birmingham have very attractive fixtures this week from an attacking perspective and should provide some decent options for those looking for a player to bring in for the week (such as Fletcher, Benitez, and Mascherano). Defensively, Chelsea and Birmingham once again have great matchups and owners will do well to ride these hot teams despite Chelsea's setback at the weekend.

Clean Sheet Rankings
  1. Chelsea (0.16) - BUY
  2. Birmingham (0.20) - HOLD
  3. Man Utd (0.62) - BUY
  4. Liverpool (0.98) - HOLD
  5. Sunderland (0.98) - HOLD
  6. Tottenham (1.01) - BUY
  7. Blackburn (1.23) - HOLD
  8. Burnley (1.23) - SELL
  9. West Ham (1.29) - SELL
  10. Aston Villa (1.33) - HOLD/SELL
  11. Arsenal (1.40) - HOLD
  12. Bolton (1.58) - HOLD
  13. Man City (2.25) - HOLD
  14. Wolves (2.50) - SELL
  15. Portsmouth (2.69) - SELL
  16. Wigan (5.15) - SELL
You have to like the top two again this week and despite Chelsea's lapse against Everton, I like them again this week to get the clean sheet. Portsmouth have scored just 4 goals away from home this season and I think Cole, Terry and even Ivanovic deserve some captaincy consideration this week. Birmingham's fixture on paper is almost as good and Sorensen owners will be pleased if they have Hart to fill in this week for their absent keeper. United's excellent defensive fixtures start this week and I like Wes Brown as a great short term pickup for the next few weeks.

Captain Rankings
  1. Didier Drogba
  2. Fernando Torres
  3. Wayne Rooney
  4. Cesc Fabregas
  5. Frank Lampard
  6. Andrei Arshavin
  7. Steven Gerrard
  8. Ashley Cole
  9. Antonio Valencia
  10. Jermaine Defoe
I love the top three this week as each gets a good looking fixture and should have the chance to find the net. Needless to say from the above I like the big four teams this week and I would ride them for the next few weeks as the majority of their fixtures are good. With Lampard and Gerrard continuing to underwhelm I think you should try and own two of those top 3 strikers, pairing them with perhaps Bent or a cheaper option like Rodallega if need be. All three have good fixtures and should provide the best source of points for the next 10 weeks or so.

Suspensions
John Heitinga
Marouane Fellaini
Craig Bellamy
Younes Kaboul
Mark Noble

This is a good week to gain a few points on your unprepared opponents who may have players on bye weeks or fail to update their teams in time for the deadline. It is therefore essential to try and field a full team of XI players and try and capitalise on the good matchups the big teams have. Why not post your lineup or transfer questions below or tweet them @plfantasy.

19 comments:

skipdeedy said...

I've got Huddlestone but thinking of switching him out for Bowyer this week. But Spurs fixtures are much better over the coming weeks so I would probably want to switch Bowyer back out again next week.

I hate to tie my transfers with a the two week swap and re-swap so to my question – is there anyone I'm missing as a good long term-ish replacement for Huddlestone as I don't think he's doing much for me.

Or should I stick with him? (he's not bad for 5.2). P.S. I do have another Spurs player - Defoe.

Thanks for any advice, skipdeedy

Mmmarek83 said...

News from Man city? SWP available for match against tottenham?

Mish said...

Rooney or Drogba for captain?

NotoriousDre said...

What a pickle Chris...i have both Drogba and Rooney! I against my better judgement im going with Drogba (i hate betting against Rooney).

@ Skipdeedy,

i have Bowyer...but i feel u missed the train....i'll looking to move in a gameweek or two. Cohen looks like a good buget buy.

Mmmarek83 said...

what about David dunn? Still sidelined?

Steven said...

Dunn out
http://www.clipsyndicate.com/video/playlist/1598/1214939?cpt=8&title=sports&wpid=2057

auburn.tigers2011 said...

Chris, what are your thoughts on Arsenal's defense goign forward? Im thinking about picking up Sagna, any other people I should consider? I currently have Dann, Ivanovic, Evra, Faye, and Bikey

Andrew said...

Auburn- I wouldn't touch Arsenal's defense unless someone paid me. After watching the last few games, its become apparent that Almunia is atrocious on crosses. I don't know how more teams haven't taken better advantage of this.

Arsenal never bunkers in to play a tough game for a 1-0 win. Their free-flowing style lends to conceding at the back.

I'm considering bringing in Insua at the moment. I think Liverpool is on the cusp of turning things around. (No I'm not a Liverpool fan, in fact I hate them)

Other teams to consider: Chelsea, Burnley, Wigan.

I would stay away from ManU right now. Vidic and Brown both got injured. De Laet might be worth a punt for the next 2 weeks or so. But I don't expect ManU to get a cleanie at Fulham.

Mish said...

any news on Brown?
is he injured?, if so how long?

Steven said...

2 week layoff

http://www.apnafootball.com/premierleague/story/man%20utd/Vidic_blow_for_United

Chris Glover said...

Skip - of the Birmingham midfield I think larsson gives the best value. He looked very dangerous vs Blackburn and I think he will easily outscore bowyer for the season. Huddlestone should be better than he is but is only reliable for 3-4 points with a low ceiling. If you need to play someone every week you're better off with a player who can contribute in all categories, even if inconsistent.

Auburn - I really like arsenal's fixture but andrew makes a great point them not holding on to clean sheets even when comfortably ahead. I think Traore is worth a play while Gibbs and clichy are out (provided silvestre doesn't steal his job) but sagna is probably overpriced.

Chris Glover said...

Andrew - I like but dont love Liverpool's fixtures which arent as good as they look on paper (all opponents averaging more than a goal a game). Insua is obviously the best value in the team and has been restored tonight after missing the Arsenal game. I think he is good value at 6m and cannot argue with the decision to bring him in, though I still rate Ivanovic and United defenders ahead of him.

Andrew said...

I definitely rate Chelsea ahead of Insua and on par with ManU defenders only because of the injury problem. I already have Ivanovic, Evra and Brown, though Brown would be the one I would upgrade to Insua.

Steven said...

Rough week for me. Wolverampton goes full backup on me.. Drogba as my C and doesnt play.. fallback is value and that's Gerrard who so far hasn't found the back of the net. Oh yea, Cesc went off hurt.. ugh!

Andrew said...

Pretty good week for me compared to most people I think. I managed 55 and my captain scored the most points on the team for just the third time this season.

Cesc getting hurt sucks for me. I was planning on transferring him out after week 18 anyways, but now other people will be too.

If I transfer Fabregas and Adebayor out, I will have 21.1 mil to spend. Right now I'm looking at bringing in Kuyt and either Torres or Anelka. Any other ideas on how to spend my cash? I already have Rooney and Defoe, no other notable mids.

Mish said...

I managed just 51.
Drogba was my captain.
My Emergency captain strategy is currently FORM.
And i was hoping my captain will be Milner.
But it's Bowyer!!!
I should have changed it into VALUE

auburn.tigers2011 said...

Chris, should I hop on the Milner bandwagon? Im tired of seeing his points go to other managers in my leagues... I have the cash to drop Hunt and pick up Milner

The Gaffer said...

I had a surprisingly good week, with 63 points. Drogba was out so Milner was my Captain. Up to 4th in my league.

Chris Glover said...

51, 55 and 63 were all good scores based on the other scores I saw in my leagues. I managed a terrible 45 and lost ground on the leaders. Need a big week this week but I'm struggling to field XI players.