Friday, December 11, 2009

Gameweek 16 Preview

Gameweek 16 Fixtures
Stoke City v Wigan
Birmingham v West Ham

Bolton v Man City

Burnley v Fulham

Chelsea v Everton

Hull City v Blackburn

Sunderland v Portsmouth

Tottenham v Wolves

Man Utd v Aston Villa

Liverpool v Arsenal


In true Mark Lawrenson style, I will reach for an overused cliche and describe this week's fantasy contest as a game of two halves. While fantasy filled squads like Chelsea, City and Spurs all face very intriguing opponents, United, Arsenal, Liverpool and Villa have tough opponents and their fantasy production is likely to be somewhat limited.

Spurs at home to Wolves (2.29 GPG conceded) looks very appetising as does City's trip to the Reebok to play Bolton (2.14 GPG). Chelsea are the pick of the big four as they welcome an Everton side that have conceded 10 goals in their last 4 road trips.

The physio rooms across the country are starting to get full with injured players Michael Essien the latest big name player to go down. I will follow this post up tonight with a last minute run through of the latest injury news.

Clean Sheet Rankings (predicted goals conceded in parenthesis)
  1. Chelsea (0.10) - BUY
  2. Sunderland (0.35) - HOLD
  3. Birmingham (0.47) - HOLD
  4. Burnley (0.55) - HOLD
  5. Tottenham (0.64) - BUY
  6. West Ham (0.72) - HOLD
  7. Stoke (0.73) - HOLD/SELL
  8. Hull (0.74) - SELL
  9. Man Utd (0.82) - BUY
  10. Man City (0.83) - BUY
  11. Fulham (1.43) - SELL
  12. Aston Villa (1.67) - SELL
  13. Liverpool (1.67) - SELL
  14. Bolton (1.95) - SELL
  15. Portsmouth (2.29) - SELL
  16. Wigan (2.58) - SELL
  17. Blackburn (2.87) - HOLD/SELL
  18. Arsenal (3.01) - HOLD
  19. Everton (3.38) - SELL
  20. Wolves (4.37) - SELL
No less than 10 teams this week whose projected goals conceded comes in below 1.00 suggesting it could be a good week for clean sheets. The group is of course led by Chelsea who have conceded just once at home all year and welcome an Everton averaging just over one goal a game on the road this season. You also have to like Birmingham and Spurs who are in good defensive form, with Spurs looking particularly attractive having conceded just 2 goals in the last 4 home games (though still, frustratingly, have just 2 clean sheets for the year). Sunderland's statistical ranking is probably ahead of where I would have ranked them based on my preconceptions but such is Portsmouth's terrible away record (3 goals in 7 games), the likes or Michael Turner look like solid plays.

Of the teams at the bottom of the rankings, Wolves, Everton and Portsmouth are sells in the longer term with tough defensive fixtures over the coming few weeks. Remember also that Fulham, Stoke, Everton and Hull also have a bye next week, which suggests Stoke are a hold for the week rather than a buy.

Captain Rankings
  1. Didier Drogba
  2. Frank Lampard
  3. Jermaine Defoe
  4. Aaron Lennon
  5. Fernando Torres
  6. Ashley Cole
  7. Darren Bent
  8. Emmanuel Adebayor
  9. Cesc Fabregas
  10. Wayne Rooney
Some really good captain options this week and for the first time I easily filled my top 10 with players I would happily captain. I obviously love Chelsea at home to Everton both offensively and defensively and therefore Ashley Cole becomes the first defender to make an appearance on my rankings. The inclusion of Torres is clearly a risk having played jut 25 minutes midweek but I think Liverpool simply have to win this game to show they are still one of the favourites to grab a place in the Champions League and therefore Benitez will risk El Nino. Spurs have the best matchup of the week and I like Defoe to continue his goalscoring form at home to Wolves this week.

As always, thanks for reading and why not post your transfer or lineup questions below or tweet @plfantasy.

15 comments:

Mmmarek83 said...

I think that Ivanovic is good replacement for Bridge. Defoe will be really good pick, but I wait GW 18. Does anybody has news about David Dunn?

Chris Glover said...

Dunn will not play at the weekend:

http://www.skysports.com/story/0,19528,11661_5764897,00.html

Steven said...

I picked up Ivanovic for Wes Brown as United was on a pretty solid streak of CS's.

NotoriousDre said...

a lil shocked you have Defoe so low...thought he would be first or even second...

im just being a pest...

good write up Chris!

Steven said...

Oh yea, forgot to give you props for this site. It's the only one like it that I've been able to find online. Great insight and statistics presentation. Keep up the good work!

Chris Glover said...

Steven - thanks for the posts. I like Ivanovic alot and might use my cash this week to bring him in for Collins. Thanks for the comments, always appreciated.

Dre - I had Defoe at 1 then chickened out and went with the Chelsea boys. I am a bit spooked by the fact that sometimes Spurs don't don't fire (1-0 loss to Stoke) where as Chelsea tend to punish teams they should beat. I wouldnt be surprised to see Defoe burn me again (after I publicly mentioned my decision to go with Adebayor ahead of him and he smashed in 5 goals!).

auburn.tigers2011 said...

Am I reading the Physio Room right that Fabregas is doubtful for the game this weekend? When did he pick up an injury?

Andrew said...

This week is the make or break week for me. My defenders and strikers both look solid and I'm hoping for a 70+ point week. I'm having trouble deciding my last spot this week. Should I play Pantsil or Elliott?. Here's my lineup right now:

HART
BIKEY ivanovic TURNER pantsil
FABREGAS hunt TAYLOR
DEFOE(C) rooney ADEBAYOR

GIVEN elliott EVRA dunn

Defoe should definitely be above Lampard is the captain rankings. He looks to be in incredibly dangerous form and was extremely involved last week. I was surprised by the inclusion of Torres and Adebayor in your captain rankings. I think its too soon to know on Torres, didn't play enough midweek to get a feel for his form or fitness.

auburn.tigers2011 said...

Chris or anybody, I have 2 transfers this week that I need to use. Pick one of:Lennon, SWP, and Valencia. Now pick one of: Milner and Giggs. Which combination should I go with for the long run? Why? Thanks in advance!

Chris Glover said...

Auburn - The Guardian and Telegraph have him in while the BBC and F365 don't mention the injury. The official site adds:
"Arshavin, William Gallas, Cesc Fabregas, and Armand Traore have all recovered from knocks picked up against Stoke last week".

I'm keeping him in and would have no fear captaining him if you so choose.

Chris Glover said...

Andrew - I'm not too high on Fulham's defense this week though I do feel Burnley are starting to struggle a bit after an impressive start. That said, no one has gone to Turf Moor and kept a clean sheet yet so Pantsil is a risk. I'd actually role the dice with Evra as Vidic should be back and Villa are only okay away from home.

I mentioned above to Dre that I really like Defoe I just feel you're much more likely to get a crushing 2 points with Defoe than Drogba. Thinking about it I might bump him above Lampard but again Frank seems to deliver bonus points or an assist to usually ensure you will get double figures if you captain him.
Adebayor's fixture is great as Bolton surrender over 2 goals a game at home. As for Torres it is a risk but the fixture is good and he is simply dynamite whenever he plays (10 goals in 10 games).

Auburn - I like Valencia, SWAP then Lennon for the next 5 weeks due to Lennon's fixtures after this week. Valencia is settling in well and faces no rotation risk at the moment and is even handling some free kick duties.
I like Milner alot more than Giggs purely due to Giggs' rotation risk over the busy Christmas period. Can't see him playing twice a week very often. That said, Milner's fixtures aren't great and it might be worth going cheap here and upgrading your defense or attack if it needs it.

Mmmarek83 said...

Captain choices- SWP, Gerrard, Rooney, Bent. I think Gerrard will bring home some assists or goals today. He has been quiet long time. Bent?

Mmmarek83 said...

http://www.arsenal.com/match/report/0910/pre/first-team/liverpool-v-arsenal?tab=preview

Arshavin, Cesc, Gallas, Traore all recovered from knocks picked up against Stoke.

Chris Glover said...

Mmmarek - I'd go with either Rooney based on form or SWP on matchup. I think Rooney is the safest pick to get 4 or 5 points+.

The Gaffer said...

I'm happy with my decision to go with Drogba as captain. 2 goals already early in the 2nd half. Bonus points guaranteed. :D