Sunday, October 4, 2009

Gameweek 8 Wrap-up

Plenty of goals this week with only one clean sheet going into Monday's clash at Villa Park. The game of the weekend came at the Emirates with Arsenal hitting 6 against Blackburn, who themselves looked useful in the first half. Fabregas was incredible (getting a goal, 4 assists and 3 bonus points) and that performance should end any doubt there was over my ranking of him in line with - if not ahead 0f - Gerrard and Lampard this season. With Van Persie able to contribute goals, assists and bonus points, he also showed his fantasy class and that he can rightfully be considered alongside the top tier of strikers in the Premier League.

Prediction assessment
My predictions were pretty mixed the clean sheet rankings being rendered useless by the fact that only two teams kept one, one of which was Portsmouth on the road which not many would have predicted. The other was Chelsea which I did get - much to criticism of a few readers - which really wasn't all that surprising. Chelsea are very tight at home and have still only surrendered one goal in six games in all competitions. Ancelotti played a very narrow team including Deco and Ballack in place of wide men like Malouda, Kalou or Cole. Liverpool failed to capitalise on that and Chelsea dominated the middle of the park and stopped Gerrard running the game. Arsenal's fixtures look better over the next few weeks but I would rank Chelsea as the best team defense right now, way ahead to United and Liverpool at this point.

My captaincy rankings were decent with Fabregas, Van Persie all contributing good or great games while Rooney and Lennon disappointed. Rooney was embarrassing against Sunderland and his petulant and childish behaviour should concern fantasy managers who paid 11m+ for his services. In his career he has been streaky when it comes to goals and the international weekend might be a welcome break. Note that United travel to both Liverpool and Chelsea in the next 3 weeks so it might be worth looking at moving Rooney after week 9's visit of Bolton (who Rooney normally does well against).

On the horizon
Defensively, City have pretty good looking fixtures with only three troubling fixtures (@Liv, Che and @Tot) between now and week 21. Richards was my pick there but with Zabaleta starting the last two I think Bridge becomes the best pickup at Eastlands. Zabaleta himself is 5m so might be worth a punt but I could see Richards back in fold at some point so I'd go with Bridge who should play every week barring injury. Aside from the week 11 trip to the Emirates I also like Spurs avoid the coming weeks, despite conceding two to Bolton this week. At 5.1m I think Assou Ekotto remains the best pick here, though if you jump on him quick you should be able to make a quick buck on Corluka (5.3) who will no doubt get the attention of other owners following his goal this week.

I love City's attacking fixtures with home games to Hull (week 14) and Burnley (week 12) looking particularly tasty. After his return tonight against Villa I think Adebayor is a buy and - along with Van Persie - is the pick of the premium strikers over the next 6 weeks. Ireland was benched tonight against Villa and is no longer worthy of fantasy consideration while Wright Phillips form concerns me (I sold him) and I think better options can be found. Everton also have good attacking fixtures and I like Louis Saha as a midprice option for those looking to differentiate themselves from Darren Bent. Blog poster dhs_media_ssharp has been singing the praises of Bilyaletdinov (6.5) and the chalkboard of his first league start shows why. Plenty of balls played into the danger zone, including corners which he is very accomplished with. Not a total steal at 6.5 but there is a gap in talent at that price range and with the upcoming fixtures I like the young Russian to contribute some fantasy points soon.

Market Watch
These tips are purely based on the ability to make cash rather than how much I like an individual player based on his schedule and all other factors

Buy

Thomas Vermaelen should hit 7m after his goal this weekend and I think he is fairly priced based on his superior outfield skills. I do not normally pick defenders based on the goalscoring but Vermaelen has shown he isn't simply a 'head the odd corner in' type of centre back. Defensively Arsenal's fixtures aren't amazing but good enough to consider Vermaelen, who should still give a small price rise if you move quickly.

Cesc Fabregas
has already risen to 10.8 but I could see this hitting 10.9 or even 11.0 by the time the international break is over. Even a that price he is still considerably less than Gerrard and Lampard and provides better value. Still a buy option in my eyes.

Darren Bent
has 5 in his last 4 and the goal at Old Trafford shows he can do it against the big boys too. Back to back bonus awards are also welcome and I would set a long term projection of 8m for Bent as managers continue to move over to putting their money in strikers.

Sell
Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard have net transfers out of fifteen and ten thousand and Lampard's price has fallen to 12.4m. The man himself insists the goals will come but until he hits the net from open play in the league I would follow this trend and move your cash into premium strikers before the pair's prices fall further.

As noted above, Wayne Rooney was poor this week and with a tough schedule to come some owners could switch to Drogba, Torres or Adebayor causing the England striker's value to fall a bit.

6 comments:

auburn.tigers2011 said...

Chris,
I need a midfielder in SWP's price range (8.0-8.4), who do you suggest is the best pickup? Im considering Lennon or Ballack and maybe even Milner. What are your thoughts? Thanks

Chris Glover said...

I just swapped SWP for Lennon but I'm worried I am too late to the party. I still distrust Ballack's playing time but Ancelotti does seem to like him. I like Milner alot if you can use the money elsewhere.
Just finished watching Ash Young v SWP and wasnt too impressed with either. Tim Cahill is probably due a goal or two though i havent seem him play much so I dont know what his form is like.

Lennon is the safe pick, Cahill has the most upside while Milner gives the best value. Id therefore go Lennon unless the extra 1m can really upgrade another position.

NotoriousDre said...

nice write up Chris.

I was able to sell Lampard before his price dropped and picked up Cesc before his price rose.

I have an addition transfer this week. I thinking of exchanging Collins for Baines. I fashion Baines as a "poor's man" Vermaleen.

The Gaffer said...

Nice writeup Chris.

IMO, Rooney should be kept. I have a feeling his goal scoring would not dry up, even though he had a terrible performance against Sunderland. IMO, Man Utd played terribly poor. He is overpriced, but if he scores, he's almost guaranteed bonus points.

Chris Glover said...

Thanks for the input guys

Dre - I like Baines alot and have been looking at him myself. Penalties, corners and even some free kicks give him excellent value considering the talent he has on the end of them (ie Cahill). Everton have good fixtures for 4 weeks but then they play 4 of the top 6 sides, and despite the double gameweek I would want rid of Baines by that point. For now, he is a nice option though.

Gaffer - I'm undecided about Rooney and while I like him over the season i think it might be worth ditching him after week 9 for Drogba, Van Persie or Adebayor and then bring him back if you so desire at a lower price after the Chelsea game in week 12.

dhs_media_ssharp said...

Another good write up. I didn't do to well this week but im confident for next week having ditched benayoun & SWP.

On the subject of Tim Cahill, he hasn't been on top of his from lately, missed an absolute sitter on thursdays european game and 2 very easy chances against stoke that you would normaly bet on him scoring. On the up side he is still getting into all the right area's, starts nearly every game and like you said, is deffinatly due a goal.