Saturday, October 4, 2008

Market Watch

I've never really considered capital growth as a legitimate reason to invest in a fantasy player, but with the current credit crunch caused by the arrival of Ronaldo, I decided to take a look at those players whose value may increase over the next few weeks. The latest premierleague.com pundit article suggests a couple of players who may be undervalued at this point (Alex, Keane and Bentley). I agree with Alex and have indeed bought him for my team. However, I am neutral on Keane and downright opposed to the suggestion of Bentley. I've set out some ideas for those players whose value looks set to rise/fall over the next few weeks:

Ronaldo (CRON) is now held by 15.2% of all players but his value has only increased by 0.1. If he has another big week this week you can bet people will be reaching for the wildcard and his value will increase rapidly. Zaki (AZAK) has had by far the biggest gain in all of fantasy football and is now owned by 29% of all players. However, at 6.7m he still represents great value and I could see this figure climbing to more like 37-40%. This should be good for another 0.2m rise. Players are not sold on Berbatov (BERB) at all and he has seen net selling this week. However, with many other big name strikers struggling, a decent week from Dimitar will see many other jump on the bandwagon and I could see moderate gains over the next few weeks. Kompany (KOMP) is playing out of position, featuring in midfield when he is classified as a defender. City have a decent defense which makes Kompany a much better option than say, Gareth Bale, who also plays more advanced than his fantasy status. If City can notch a couple of clean sheet (with Newcastle, Stoke and Bolton coming up) Kompany could easily see a 0.3 rise taking him closer to his rightful price of around 6.0m. Traore (ATRA) is another of those players playing in midfield when classed as a defender and I am amazed more then 2% of owners don't have him. I think it is just a matter of time before people get on board and I could see rises of as much as 0.5m over the next few gameweeks.Selling Bentley (DBEN) and Bent (BENT) is hardly a new idea with their value already falling 0.5m and 0.4m this season. However, Spurs do not look like turning things around right now and Bent will probably lose his place long term to Pavlyuchenko. Bentley has been simply terrible since signing for Spurs and will probably play better at some point this season. However, this will probably be after fantasy players have given up on him, and seeing as he is still held by 12% of players, he still has a long way to fall. Arteta (MART) has been pretty good this year and improved 0.5m in the opening weeks. However, his upcoming strength of schedule is 2.000 and Everton aren't playing well right now. It may be worth selling him for 5 or 6 weeks then buying him back when his price has fallen a couple of hundred thousand.

16 comments:

Silent Jay said...

Probably spot-on for the most part. But I don't agree on Arteta. Yes, he's got two tough games coming up. But then it's Bolton (A), Fulham (H), West Ham (A), Boro (H), Wigan (A), Tottenham (A) and Villa (H). I don't see Everton being shut out too many times over that stretch.

At 8.0 he's also (still) pretty good value. You get goals, assists and bonus points. And since Arteta is about all that Everton have right now, he should continue to be their "main man", being involved in most goals and picking up bonus points regularly.

And on the transfer page, he's also amongst the "Leaders", presented on a silver platter to anyone looking to make a change.
Remember that he was way undervalued this year due to too many injuries and too little production last season.

Chris Glover said...

Yeh fair point. I just think he hasn't played that great and is due for a dry spell.
Excellent point on him being on the leaders board though, I'd never thought of it like that.

Silent Jay said...

Well, I haven't seen him play yet. But with a goal, 4 assists and 8 bonus points (2 x "man of the match" in the last 3 games), how bad can he have been?

I think he's also a "bonus point magnet", due to his big(ish) name. A lot of the time it seems like the powers that be are thinking "Hmm... who do we say was the best? No one really stood out. Meh, just give it to the big boys." So even if he doesn't play that great, he'll still pick up points occasionally. (In fact, I could swear I've watched games where the 3 bonus points went to players who didn't touch the ball once, while the best players got nothing. Almost like they didn't watch the game and just selected the "usual suspects.")

PS: Just noticed that he's even on the Dream Team at the moment. Even more free advertising.

Silent Jay said...

"GOAL! ARTETA DRAWS FIRST BLOOD! Coolly converted penalty from the Toffees' skipper and Everton lead 1-0!"

Apparently he also takes penalties. :-)

Chris Glover said...

I think I should get a job a Lehman Brothers with that Arteta sell tip. 20 minutes in and he's already scored, having been given the captain's armband. The fact he's been given penalty duties makes him even more attractive. You were right jay.

Chris Glover said...

haha we both thought the same thing at the same time! miserable weekend for most of my 'tips'. I definately won't give up the day job just yet.

Silent Jay said...

Maybe add Garrido to the "buy" list? At 4.3, on a decent team, having reclaimed his spot from Michael Ball (3 games in a row now), scoring a cracker of a goal, he should take off like a rocket over the next couple of weeks. (Or that's how it usually goes, anyway.)

Chris Glover said...

Yeh great call Jay. I hadn't realised he was so cheap. with the goal I would imagine he'll go up 0.1 this week alone.

Silent Jay said...

Hmm... for whatever reason, people are being very tentative with him so far. Usually, cheap defender + goal = STAMPEEEEDE!! (Even if they're on crappy teams.) I've made my share of profit that way.

Still, he should continue to play, and the week after next it's home to Stoke. Value increase guaranteed.

He may well hold at 4.3 until the next deadline, though. (Which suits me fine, since I already have 3 City players and need to rearrange my team in order to get him in. Trying desperately to avoid those extra transfers this season...)

Chris Glover said...

yeh they killed me last year, its hard to gaurantee making bakc the extra 4 points and the loss of potential profit. i'm considering swapping figueroa for garrido after your tip.

phillyphan113 said...

Ok I've decided it's time to play my Wildcard, as I'm seeking to pick up Ronaldo and move Lescott, plus the 2 week layoff gives me time to rework and see how guys do outside the league.

I plan on swapping out Clichy, Lescott, and Upson in favor of Turner, Olsson, and Traore and holding on to Laursen and Figueroa. This is mostly to clear up money so I can stack my midfield and forwards.

In the midfield I plan on keeping SWP and Reo-Coker plus Cole and Defoe attacking. I also have Denilson, but I think the time has come for me to take the money and run with him, so I will be swapping him for Ronaldo.

My dilemma comes with what to do with the 3 other players in order to afford Ronaldo. In addition to those already named, I have Valencia and Arteta with Adebayor up top. I have come up with what I think are the three best options:

1. Stand pat with the 3 players already named. I know that I should probably just collect my money with Arteta and Adebayor since I have had both since the beginning of the season and can make a nice profit, but both are in good form right now.

2. Keep Valencia, swap Arteta for Lampard and Adebayor for Zaki. This seems like the safest option, but it will give me 3 Wigan players, plus I hate to part with Arteta.

3. Keep Arteta, swap Valencia for Lampard and Adebayor for Davies. This is very attractive to me right now because I would have an amazing midfield, especially with City's fixtures and Cahill being sketchy at Everton. The only downside is Davies could be risky and Zaki seems like a tough deal to pass up.

Sorry for the (very) long post, any input is appreciated.

phillyphan113 said...

I just realized if I transfer Hart (5.0) for James (5.9) at keeper, I can afford option 3, but with Zaki instead of Davies. This is sure looking tempting...

Silent Jay said...

Option 3 sounds good. I'd definitely hang on to Arteta as long as he keeps producing, stays on the Dream Team and/or the Top Scorers list - and his value keeps rising accordingly.

He's a bit injury prone. So you basically either end up with a discounted Tier 2 fantasy stud (just behind Ronaldo, Lampard, Gerrard) if he stays healthy, or you can sell him for a very nice profit when/if he goes down.

Selling Hart is tough right now, of course. @Newcastle and home to Stoke coming up. But you always have to sacrifice something, somewhere.

phillyphan113 said...

Well I went through with it last night, I'm anxious to see how this all works out. Also, I'm afraid I worded that wrong; I swapped out James in favor of Hart due to City's easy fixtures and his reduced price.
I'm sitting at 3rd right now and only 2 people in my league (20 members) had Ronaldo before this break, so things are looking good.

Silent Jay said...

Phew! Pretty glad I grabbed Arbeloa so early this week after all, as his value has just gone up.

I normally try to hold out until just before the deadline, because an awful lot of players I picked up in the past tended to poke themselves in the eye with their toothbrush or something. The less time I give them to hurt themselves during the week, the better! But I thought Arbeloa might go up (steady adds over the last few weeks), so I had to risk it.

Chris Glover said...

My main aim when bringing in Ronaldo was to keep Lampard so I think pairing him with Ronaldo is a great option. I was unsure on Arteta in that I don't think he is playing as well as his points suggest. However, he does keep scoring points and thats all that matters. A I mentioned previously, I'm a huge fan of Davies, but I think Zaki is a better long term option as Davies is an unproven week in week out goal scorer.
Have you wildcarded yet Philly? Maybe an idea to wait until after the international games?