Friday, October 10, 2008

Market Watch (update)

With this week being the international break, there isn't that much to talk about in fantasy land so I thought I would update my predictions from last week regarding potential price rises. Hopefully I can fare better than the world markets have the past week!

Buy
C.Ronaldo 14.2 (+0.1m)
A.Zaki 6.8 (+0.1m)
J.Bosingwa 6.5m (+0.1m)
S.Nasri 7.5m (-)
D.Berbatov 9.4m (-)
V.Kompany 5.7m (+0.1m)
A.Traore 4.5m (-)

Sell
M.Arteta 8.1m (+0.1m)
D.Bentley 7.4m (-)
D.Bent 7.0 (-0.1m)

The buy tips were largely successful with 4 tips showing gains and three holding steady (Traore has seen 12,000 transfers in the past two weeks and looks set rise at any point). I think Ronaldo still has plenty of room to run and is one big week (say two goals and 3 bonus points) away from seeing a huge rush to bring him in. I think Zaki and Bosingwa are still well priced and might see another 0.1 - 0.3 gain over the next month.

My selling tips were more varied and (as tipped by SilentJay) I was dead wrong with Arteta. I felt he didn't play that well against Newcastle but again scored, and has now even taken over penalty duties. I am tentatively removing the sell tag for now though with games @Arsenal, United, @Bolton coming up I wouldn't bet on a huge return for the next couple of weeks.

SilentJay made another great point in that Arteta being front and centre on the top scorers list makes him more attractive to other managers and this is something that should definately be considered when looking to make money from player sales.

New tips
Arsenal has a decent stretch of games (Eve, @WH, Tot, @Stoke) coming up and I therefore underline my Nasri buy rating. I also see this stretch as the time Cesc will return to his 10m value - I'm a little suprised he didn't last week after his goal.

United also have a nice little run (WBA, @EVE, WH, Hull) and I therefore hold my Berbatov buy rating. Brown may be worth a look with Neville on the sideline though this should be monitored over the international week. Finally, Rooney's value could well move back to the 11m price he started at, after a couple of decent displays in the past week or so.

4 comments:

Silent Jay said...

You're contradicting yourself a bit, since Arteta is still listed under "Sell" afterall.

Wes Brown - I can't believe how many people are picking him up. Seems obvious that Neville is preferred when healthy - and he's only got a slight knock. Should be back next week. Either one of them would represent a bargain if he played. But I'm not touching that one until the situation is cleared up.

As for Nasri... definitely worth keeping an eye on, but I'd wait a couple of weeks before buying. You've got Nasri, Song, Denilson, Eboue and Walcott fighting for a place in the starting lineup, with Nasri and Eboue missing out in the last game. Dangerous territory.

And I would've maybe added Lescott to the sell list. WAY overpriced, considering the Everton defense has been a sieve, and Arsenal and ManU coming up. The occasional goal isn't going to make up for that. And people seem to be realizing that, as he continues to be the most-dropped defender.

If you do still own Lescott and have already made your free transfer, you might as well keep him one more week, since his value has already dropped this week. It's unlikely to drop 0.2 in one GW. But unless he scores against Arsenal (or gets an unlikely shutout), he WILL drop further.

Chris Glover said...

The list above is just a recap of what I predicted, perhaps I didnt make it clear. Arteta is defo off the sell list, i blew that call.
I agree about Lescott for sure.

I wouldn't personally buy Brown but I do think he's worth a shot for a 0.1 gain this week if you have your free transfer and you want a good matchup for next week - WBA home.

Silent Jay said...

Oh, OK. I misunderstood that. Thought that was the current list.

Brown - as a one week moneymaker... sure. Didn't really think of it that way. I don't usually have the luxury of being able to grab someone for one week just to make a little profit. I do always look for players on the rise, but they're gonna have to be worth playing for the next 3 or 4 games as well.

Chris Glover said...

yeh you're probably right, to use 2 free transfers just for one or two weeks is probably a bit too much. I guess brown is decent value nonetheless if Neville's return is delayed.