PLFantasy

Common sense would lead us to believe that goals per game should decrease in the winter months. The best teams start to 'settle down' and 'make their push' for the title while rainy nights in Stoke get harder to manage as the elements take their toll on the playing surfaces. However, 'common sense' can often lead us astray so I thought we should look at the actual numbers. The percentage of games in which teams keep clean sheets has been pretty consistent over the years: 2007-08 29% 2008-09 33% 2009-10 29% 2010-11 25% 2011-12 26% If you limit games to just January and February, we can see the impact of the winter months: Over 80 games in January and February these trends are going to lead to 4 or 5 extra clean sheets, which is promising but nothing to get overly excited about. What though, if we limit our search to the 'big teams', the ones who are supposed to be locking i...

Captain Picks Barring transfer mistakes or an act of God, you own at least one or two Spurs players and will surely captain them this week. Therefore, in the interest of time I am going to skip over the other candidates and focus on Redknapp's big three: Gareth Bale - leads the trio in points to date but has suffered badly from inconsistency with too many two or three pointers so far this year (9). However, his last four home games have given him 4-13-11-14 points which more than hints at the upside the young Welshman brings. His 40 shots ranks 3rd among all midfielders (Dempsey and Sinclair) and his 44 key passes can only be topped by Mata (45). Both opponents have tightened up of late but the likes of Tony Hibbert haven't faced anyone of Bale's quality for a while. His threat from set pieces is limited but his style of play tends to lend itself to bonus points so if he scores, he is likely to rack up 2 or 3 bonus points too. Summary: Rarely rested, high upside bu...

Arsenal Szczesny, Djourou, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Vermaelen, Song, Arteta, Walcott, Ramsey, Arshavin, van Persie Subs: Almunia, Rosicky, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Gervinho, Chamakh, Benayoun, Coquelin. Arshavin in for Gervinho was the only change of note here and with Gervinho heading to the African Cup of Nations soon, he should be sold by anyone who had taken a risk with him. With the big name forwards elsewhere getting rotated, Van Persie is looking increasingly safe as the best fantasy player around. Aston Villa Guzan, Cuellar, Collins, Dunne, Warnock, Albrighton, Petrov, Clark, N'Zogbia, Ireland, Agbonlahor. Subs: Marshall, Hutton, Bent, Delfouneso, Bannan, Weimann, Gardner. Bent started on the bench due to precaution because of his injury or perhaps as lingering punishment for Christmas shopping-gate . Either way he remains overpriced, as do the majority of players in this uninspiring side. Blackburn Bunn, Lowe, Samba, Hanley, Pedersen, Henley, Nzonzi, Petrovic, Roch...

The last two weeks have illustrated the randomness of fantasy football, where even when you predict the outcome right, your team can wind up with no points. For example, as forecast, the two Manchester teams have kept two clean sheets over the past two gameweeks but despite owning P Jones, Richards and Evans, I've come out of it with zero clean sheets after Jones limped off and Richards was subbed after 59 minutes in GW17, then Jones and Richards missed out altogether and Evans was withdrawn at half time in GW18. The same can be said for Rooney owners who picked up just 8 points despite United scoring 10 goals over that same two week period. You calculated the odds right but the house still won. This shouldn't have large repercussions on how you pick your team though. Rooney was an outstanding pick these past couple of weeks and deserved captain attention in both. Trying to predict when players kept rested for the odd game is a fools errand and unless we have strong evidence...

Captain Picks We have the deepest pool of legitimate captain options here. Insert Christmas cliche here! Manchester is once again the place to be and both the red and blue side of the City enjoy a fixture this week as appetizing as, well, something appetizing at Christmas. With the home fixture, Rooney is the obvious pick for the week and United really seem to have turned the corner since they hit four past Wolves in GW15. 11 goals in three gameweeks have put the Champions right back among the fantasy elite and Rooney is obviously well placed to capitalise. Over the last four gameweeks, Rooney has 15 shots, 11 of which were on target to support his 4 goals. With Wigan coming to town, it's almost impossible to look elsewhere. Rooney's teammate Nani has been in great form himself with three goals and four assists in the last four games. Of the ~10m midfielders on offer, Nani possibly has the best goalscoring ability and history, though a slight word of cauti...

Captain Picks With the short gameweek I'm going to keep this brief. Your basic choice is to either captain your City players, or, if you are worried about rotation (which is a concern) then stick with a proven asset with a somewhat tricky fixture (ie Van Persie and Rooney). City's fixture is just too good to avoid and if you hold Aguero or Silva it's tough to look elsewhere. As with prior year weeks I think Silva is the safer option, though Aguero probably has the higher upside. Aguero looked sharp early against Arsenal but drifted out of the game a bit as it went on (though I don't really understand why he was stripped of his assist). At this point I am leaning towards Silva, who appears less likely to be dropped (Dzeko must be due a start soon) but it really is a coin toss and I don't have anything concrete to help you make a decision either way. Outside of the City stars you're left with Van Persie who had a rare off week at City but faces a Villa...

Arsenal Szczesny, Djourou, Koscielny, Mertesacker, Vermaelen, Arteta, Song, Ramsey, Walcott, van Persie, Gervinho Subs: Almunia, Rosicky, Arshavin, Frimpong, Chamakh, Benayoun, Miquel. No surprises in this lineup, and we shouldn't overreact to the lack of goals when playing a very good City side, no doubt refocused by their sloppy defensive work of late. Walcott owners will be nervous about how quiet he was but Arshavin looked pretty terrible off the bench and Chamakh got the nod over Benayoun. Competition therefore appears to be somewhat thin and with Gervinho set to depart for the African Nations in the the not too distant future, Walcott remains a (frustrating) option. Aston Villa Guzan, Hutton, Dunne, Collins, Warnock, Albrighton, Delph, Petrov, N'Zogbia, Heskey, Delfouneso.  Subs: Marshall, Clark, Cuellar, Bannan, Weimann, Johnson, Burke. Guzan continued to deputise in goal with Given still out until the early new year. Villa have tough defensive fixtures betwee...