PLFantasy

It wasn't really my intention to roll out pieces of the model in various stages but I've been a bit slower than I hoped in finalising this year's version so wanted to at least present the different pieces as they're available. We first looked at the team +/- which gives an indication of how a team might perform in future weeks beyond a simply shots/game type metric which fails to adjust for strength of schedule. Next up is to look at the players' share of their team totals, which will help turn the forecast team data into something we can use for individuals. This isn't a complex calculation, but a couple of points are worth noting: The calculation excludes any games the player misses and only uses team data from games they appear in. It isn't, therefore, the same as simply looking at player's shots to date for the season divided by his team's total.  I do not make an adjustment for minutes played, so players who make a lot of substitute appeara...

I was away last week visiting beautiful Whistler (highly recommended to all) but we're now back on track with this week's Fanning the Flames piece. We're not too far removed from the Gameweek 3 piece so there's some familiar names and narratives here, but let's press on regardless. Alexis Sanchez continues to produce shots at an alarming rate but simply cannot catch a break. The Chilean's 28 total shots and 21 SiB lead the league and come close to doubling the totals of his fellow midfielders. His production is a microcosm for Arsenal's "struggles" to date with the team leading the league in SiB by a distance (ARS 79, SOT 59, MCI 51) yet only having five goals to show for their efforts. Sanchez has had a large amount of his efforts blocked which is somewhat tricky to explain, and a quick look at last year's stats tells a similar, if less dramatic story (42/121). Last year also tells us that he was able to convert 13 of his 71 SiB into goa...

With the proliferation of Opta and multiple news sources starting to dip their proverbial toes into the world of statistical analysis, casual fans have access to a greater depth of data than at any point before. Converting that data into useful information therefore comes more and more into focus and that’s why we need to review any proposed “advanced” metrics to ensure they remain relevant and as accurate as possible (all while acknowledging we are a long way from even touching the kind of analytics that are prevalent in other sports). Before we go on it should also be noted that any reference to terms like “advanced” should be taken lightly. By “advanced” I mean, slightly more useful than looking at the “goals scored” chart and assuming that the past explains the future. I am not a stats professor nor even a student and more complex models surely exist which might shave a point or two off the margin of error from the analysis in these electronic pages. However, I believe the output...

If you direct your attention to the navigation bar you will note that there is now a new link to the team plus-minus page. I've added a brief summary below but it's a pretty simple principle. One word of caution: the data is based solely on 2015-16 data so the sample sizes are ludicrously small. That said, these numbers (particularly with penalty box touches and total shots) do stabilise relatively quickly so it's worth at least having a glance at these numbers in the coming weeks if you are worried that your initial assessment of a team is a bit off (are Chelsea really struggling? Are Leicester for real?). Workings Plus-minus (+/-) is a very simple metric which simply tries to adjust stats to put them in a context of a team's opponents to date. For example, we might note that two teams have each registered five shots on goal per game and conclude they are of equal ability but if one team did it against Man City and Everton while the other did it against Norwich and...