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Goalscorers are highlighted in bold , players with an assist are underlined Arsenal Szczesny, Sagna, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Vermaelen, Walcott, Ramsey , Arteta, Wilshere, Cazorla, Giroud Subs: Mannone, Rosicky, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Coquelin, Jenkinson, Gervinho, Gibbs The biggest answer we received here may well end up being moot, as while Koscielny was preferred to Gibbs (with Vermaelen once again shifting to left back), the Frenchman left the game early with a groin strain, which would normally rule him out for a least a couple of fixtures. Podolski also missed this one (apparently with illness though I couldn't confirm that one) but given the ineffectiveness of the other options, playing time is not really a concern for him. Aston Villa Guzan, Lowton, Baker, Clark, Stevens, Holman, Westwood , Bannan, Weimann, Agbonlahor, Benteke Subs: Given, Ireland, El Ahmadi, Albrighton, Delph, Bowery, Lichaj The key players continue to be entrenched in this side ...

Don't forget we're on a short week this time around, with the transfer deadline at 19:30 GMT on Tuesday 27 November. Team Attacking Forecast Powered by Tableau Team Defensive Forecast Powered by Tableau Individual Player Forecast Powered by Tableau

Goalscorers are highlighted in bold , players with an assist are underlined . Arsenal Szczesny, Jenkinson, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Gibbs, Arteta, Ramsey, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Cazorla, Podolski, Giroud Subs: Mannone, Sagna, Vermaelen, Wilshere, Coquelin, Arshavin, Gervinho Wenger made a few changes here, though he confirmed after the game that Vermaelen, Sagna and Wilshere were all short of fitness, so I wouldn't overreact there. Mertesacker remains the safest/cheapest way to access this underrated unit, assuming that experienced trio return in future weeks. Going forward, this was obviously a disappointing result for the Gunners, and while they did manage 12 shots (just one on target), that's below average for both Villa's home defense (16) and Arsenal's road attack (14) so I'm not willing to let them off the hook, for just having an unlucky day in front of goal. In terms of job security that front three are all going to play in virtually every game, but we...

I like my information to be visualised, probably due to some kind of learning preference - the kind of thing you didn't listen to in school, but actually might have been quite useful. Anyway, for that reason I'll often plot some data - even if fairly simplistic - to better understand it and I thought I'd share a couple of simple graphs here. We've plotted shots in the box per 90 minutes (SiB H90 or SiB A90 for home/away splits) against chances created (CC H90 or CC A90) to split players between those who have shown an ability to contribute both goals and assists and those who look like a one-category player. That, in of itself, isn't necessarily a problem, but it might indicate some concern if a player's value to date has come from, say, just goals, and the supply of those chances can be called into question. The size of the square plotted represents each player's ownership percentage, which illustrates a couple of players who are clearly held by too h...

Team Attacking Forecast Powered by Tableau Team Defensive Forecast Powered by Tableau Individual Player Forecast Powered by Tableau In anticipation of the inevitable "why do you hate van Persie" questions, I thought I better add a quick note on his unexpectedly low ranking here. Powered by Tableau The key difference the model sees between van Persie and Rooney is simply the percentage of United's chances he has accounted for when playing. Rooney sits at 29% in home games while van Persie comes in with a useful 20%, which based on United's forecast 14 SiB gives Rooney a forecast 1.3 shot advantage. Rooney also enjoys a distinct advantage in SoB, though given the low likelihood of those turning into goals, that doesn't have a huge impact. This all translates to a relatively slim, but not insignificant, 1.4 point lead and thus likely some scorn for these electronic pages. If I'm honest, if I owned both players and hadn...

We looked at this similar data for team shots generated a few weeks back, but as a reminder, this below +/- data is calculated as below: If Arsenal have faced Stoke, Southampton and West Ham who had, on average, managed 8, 12 and 10 shots inside the box (SiB) but Arsenal surrendered 6, 14 and 9, we would record a +/- of -25%, 17% and -10%. We then just take a simple average to give us an overall rating of -6% for these games. Note that from a defensive perspective a minus number is good as it represents less  shots surrendered than the league average. By plotting this data against actual goals conceded per game (GPG), we might be able to identify teams whose results have fallen short of their underlying performance and thus might be poised for some improved results (or vice versa). The data has been split between home and away given that some teams present significant distinctions at home and away. The size of each plotted square represents the total SiB surrendered (at home/...

Each player who racked up 6 or more points this week has been assigned a 'Buy', "Hold' or 'Sell' status. These don't necessarily reflect what I would do, more what I believe to be a reasonable action at this time: Buy - the player can be purchased immediately taking consideration of his playing time, fixtures, injury status etc. This status does not necessarily mean you should buy him now as it depends who else you own, only that it is reasonable to do so. Hold, and/or monitor - if you own the player you're not in a rush to ditch him but there's sufficient risk here to justify potential buyers holding off. Sell - the player has too many risks and should either be sold or not purchased. This does not mean he might not have value in the future, just not right now. Note that I don't generally include defenders as so much of their value is tied to their team's success rather than their individual skill set. Carlos Tevez 19 It's g...

We focus a lot on shots and chances created around these electronic pages, based on the idea that they are more predictable than goals scored. Over the course of a season this is undoubtedly true, however, this week gave us a good reminder of what can happen in a sport where the odd goal can decide games and one moment of magic can give more rewards than 89 minutes of sweat and toil: No real lessons here, it just struck me as particularly noteworthy that five of the week's winners were all out shot by their opponents, by some distance in a couple of instances. Indeed, we've seen four instances all season where teams had 20+ shots but lost, with two of them coming this week. The others were QPR's crazy 5-0 loss to Swansea in gameweek one where they out shot their opponents 21-13, and Spurs' 4-2 loss to Chelsea in gameweek eight in which they had as many SoT (10) as their opponents had total shots yet came away with nothing. The 'pundits' would like us to ...

Arsenal Szczesny, Sagna, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Vermaelen, Wilshere, Arteta, Cazorla, Walcott, Giroud, Podolski Subs: Mannone, Andre Santos, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Ramsey, Coquelin, Arshavin, Jenkinson As expected Szczesny reclaimed his spot between the sticks and thus we lose another potential budget 'keeper. This Arsenal defense is decent against the weaker sides but those games don't come often enough to justify lofty price tags. That leaves Mertesacker as the only real option here, unless you believe that Vermaelen's move to left back is permanent and Koscielny's minutes will be consistent too (call me unconvinced). The key members of the front six are fairly settled and we can possibly soon add Walcott to the 'reliable' list after struggling for minutes early on in the season. At 8.7m he's in a tough price bracket as it's impossible to compare him to the likes of Bale, Mata or Cazorla on anything other than pure speculation, while it's equa...