PLFantasy

Powered by Tableau I've finally got some captain data to use this week, and while it certainly isn't a finished product, I'm happy enough to share it and see where it leads in the next few weeks. The short story is that the value in the below graph is a very approximate forecast of the points for the week, based on a number of factors that correlate fairly well to future production. For more information on the actual nuts and bolts of the calculation, see below the captain commentary under the table. As a caveat for all, these forecast numbers should be taken with a pinch, nay a drum, of salt and are really intended to guide our thoughts rather than make factual predictions. That said, I believe that over the course of a season you'll be better using them than the old 'gut' feeling. I always like getting feedback from readers but as this is very much a work in progress, suggestions, ideas and criticism would be even more welcome here. Powe...

In this weekly series, each player has been assigned a 'Buy', "Hold' or 'Sell' status. These don't necessarily reflect what I would do, more what I believe to be reasonable action at this time: Buy - the player can be purchased immediately taking consideration of his playing time, fixtures, injury status etc. This status does not necessarily mean you should buy him now as it depends who else you own, only that it is reasonable to do so Hold, and monitor - if you own the player you're not in a rush to ditch him but there's sufficient risk here to justify potential buyers holding off. Sell - the player has too many risks and should either be sold or not purchased. This does not mean he might not have value in the future, just not right now. Ashley Cole 15 points Cole took his goal very well this week but it was probably another factor which boosted his value more: John Terry being benched. With that, along with the ominous presence of A...

Arsenal Mannone, Jenkinson, Koscielny, Mertesacker, Gibbs, Ramsey, Diaby, Arteta, Cazorla, Gervinho, Podolski Subs: Martinez, Andre Santos, Giroud, Walcott, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Djourou, Coquelin. Ramsey took an unexpected role on the right of the midfield five, presumably with the intention of getting a bit more defensive responsibility against the Champions. I don't see this as a sustainable trend though with so many other options lurking on the bench so there isn't much fantasy impact to report. I do believe Diaby is going to get a lot  of minutes here and thus makes an interesting possibility to get access to this talented team if Cazorla and Podolski are out of your price range. Gervinho is a tough man to forecast as while his price tag is low, he still looks a touch erratic and you have to think Giroud gets numerous chances to impress here. If you've made a bit of cash already and can afford to bench him, I'd guess he will represent good bang for your buck, ...

Updated goalkeeper rotation numbers after four gameweeks. Data is based on current and prior year data, weighted towards the 2012/12 data. The below number shows the average goals per game conceded of the best fixture for each combination of players. For example, the average forecast goals conceded if you own Foster and Jaaskelainen would be 1.27:

@Billy_Mac - Would you consider ditching RVP or Tevez with budget options looking promising and Aguero/Rooney returning Not for now, though this is definitely an emerging strategy. That group of Berbatov, Podolski, Ba, Fletcher, Crouch and even someone like Lambert, Vaz Te or Lukaku (long term) could certainly provide enough value for a team but that leaves you with a huge pile of cash to invest in midfield and I'm not sure the options there are much more secure. All four of these forwards will have some success this year and will play more often than not so transfers at this point are probably premature, we just need to be sure we are flexible if, and when, we decipher what Ferguson and Mancini have planned. @nads_ak - Changes after disaster last week of 30 points. Pienaar and Berba in for Petric and Arteta. Thoughts? I like the moves a lot. Arteta is playing way too deep to be successful and is a definite sell at this point. To throw a couple more combos out, Podolski/...

Powered by Tableau Captain Picks I'm still working on the calculations for some data-based captain picks, so for now let's stick to some good ol' narrative. I've kept the ramblings to notebook form for the sake of your time and my sanity: Eden Hazard vs Stoke (39% vote as FFS ) P90 of 12.0 at home after two games at Chelsea . . . scored or assisted 5 of Chelsea's 6 goals at Stamford Bridge . . . Stoke have been typically solid at home (1 goal conceded against City and 0 versus Arsenal) but have been mediocre on the road (3 goals in 2 games against Wigan and Reading) . . . 43% ownership means that picking Hazard will have limited gains while not picking him comes with a large risk . . . played full 90 minutes against Juventus midweek with Mata and Moses both rested so rotation risk if a slight concern . . . underlying stats are excellent (12 shots, 3 on target and 10 chances created) but aren't better than some of the other elite talent . . . penalt...

In the first of a new regular series, we're going to look at the week's top fantasy performers (purely measured by fantasy points) and look at the evidence as to whether their success is sustainable or whether the inevitable hype needs to be ignored. Where possible I will draw on the available stats but I'll also add more subjective comments regarding a player's future playing time or other possible risks. Without wishing to be negative, more often than not we're going to be dousing fires here as you don't need me to tell you after yet another Carlos Tevez goal that he's a good player. I'm also going to stay away from defenders who purely earned their points from defensive means as the sustainability of those is a whole other ball game that needs more than just a line or two per player. Each player has been assigned a 'Buy', "Hold' or 'Sell' status. These don't necessarily reflect what I would  do, more what I believe to b...