PLFantasy

One of the easiest ways to save money without losing too much production is to look for players that are cheaper than their teammates but still play similar levels of minutes. This is a hallowed strategy in fantasy circles and needs no further explanation here. What I do want to discuss is (a) which players allow us to execute this strategy and (b) is this strategy always reliable. Undervalued teammates How comfortable would you be picking your weekly defence from Richard Dunne, John Terry, Nemanja Vidic, Roger Johnson and Jody Craddock? Last season these players ranked 1st, 3rd, 8th, 18th, and 35th (Vidic was injured) among all defenders in the game and totalled 657 points between them. At the same PPG rates this year they would amass 630 points even if they each played in a conservative 32 games each (or an incredible 749 points if they each played every week). At the time of writing this group of players will set you back 31.0m which means you would receive a PPMS ...

This week's preview is going to be a bit condensed as my internet access has been limited while still on my travels. After the long rambling piece from GW2 was done I had enough time to throw together the below rankings which will hopefully help with lineup and transfer questions for the week: Clean Sheet Rankings Chelsea (0.27) Man United (0.36) Tottenham (0.40) Liverpool (0.55) Blackpool (0.63) Aston Villa (0.70) Wolves (0.79) Newcastle (0.81) Blackburn (1.13) Bolton (1.13) Sunderland (1.17) Arsenal (1.36) Fulham (1.44) Man City (1.48) Everton (1.61) Birmingham (1.63) West Brom (3.39) Stoke (3.73) West Ham (3.83) Wigan (4.03) Aside from the usual candidates, Blackpool stand out as a top pick for the week but I am cautious about this ranking due to the lack of data we have for them at home in the EPL. That said, Fulham were awful away last season (12 goals) and so Blackpool might just be worth a shot if you need a budget option this week. The top four picks...

The below is a bit late due to my lack of internet access. The GW3 preview will also be up shortly.  Seeing as these gameweek roundups invariably descend into random thoughts from the football world, I thought I would rename the segment as both a nod to the nature of my posts and to the greatest rock band of all time (see how even the introductions are now rambling . . . good luck to the reader!). This week is one in which my concise writing would be especially beneficial given the goals (38) and fantasy excitement of this past week. Without further ado then I will start with a few big performances that require our attention: Theo Walcott (7.1m) - I included Walcott in my ' under the radar' piece before the season started so while Walcott enjoying success is not a total surprise, the timing is much earlier than I expected. It is pleasing to see him flourish early in the season as this performance should buy him some patience for when he inevitably has one of those incon...

"James Milner might think the grass is greener at Manchester City. He may be in for a shock. " (Stephen Ireland) Seeing as I'm on Malaysia time, I have several hours to burn before the Saturday news starts rolling in so I thought I would lay down some random thoughts on the Milner / Ireland trade that could have fantasy impact immediately and throughout the season. James Milner The general consensus seems to be that City have been mugged by Villa and overpaid for the services of Milner. 43% of Goal.com readers think that the move is a bad one for Milner personally which implies they think he won't get enough playing time at City in the coming months and years. I disagree. I think people often underestimate the effect that it has on a manager's team selection when he signed a player - which is not the case for De Jong, Barry, Wright Phillips and Johnson. If any of these players are dropped by Mancini, and hence considered busts, it is Hughes' fau...

The pessimist in me is wondering where I go from here after a very successful first week in which my predictions did well and my team dominated to a three digit score . However, I am going to be positive and look to have another good week of predictions and hope to show that last week was no fluke (in reality it was probably was a fluke, as my countless failed predictions in the past show). One thing I didn't focus on last week, which I now wish I had, is the prediction tool I use to create my clean sheet rankings. Without getting too bogged down in Excel nonsense, the basic idea is to break down teams historic performance at home/away, against other teams and against certain types of team along with the corresponding data for their opponents. To get the historic data for the promoted sides I used a historic relationship between teams' performance in the EPL and the Championship to try and gross up/net down the expected goals conceded/scored. Anyway, the poin...

Well that went well. One of my better week of predictions is in the bag and Pure Juice sit 113th out of close to 2 million managers having managed six goals and four clean sheets on opening weekend. Unfortunately I don't think I have struck some sort of fantasy blueprint to be applied in all future weeks - more than I got a bit lucky and applied some fundamental principles that hold true for the coming weeks too: While I cautioned earlier about using minutes played as a sure fire barometer for future success, during these opening weeks when team selections are unsettled from prior season, it is essential to go with the sure things and try and avoid trying to discover the next big thing too early. That is why - as some of you have correctly pointed out - I somewhat deviated from my normal strategy of cheaper defenders and brought in Vidic and Terry for opening weekend (this was also due to saving some cash swapping Van Persie to Berbatov quite late on after it becam...

The talk is over and the season has kicked off. Without further ado then, I proudly introduce your 2010/11 Pure Juice lineup. Keepers J.Jaaskelainen B.Foster My love for the rotation strategy is well documented and I recently hinted that I like the combo of Jaaskelainen and Foster due the security of their jobs, their big league experience and the meshing of the pair's fixtures in the early part of the season. I see Foster starting the majority of games but Bolton are okay at home and with Foster's uncertain fitness, Jussi gets the gloves for week 1 as Bolton entertain Fulham at the Reebok. I'm happy with this pair though I imagine at least one of them will be moved as some point as a bargain keeper emerges once again. Defenders N.Vidic J.Terry S.Warnock M.Dawson S.Carr My two key indicators here were opening fixtures and certainty of playing. I was tempted by Ferreira, Alex and Evans but I ultimately went for 5 players who will definitely play each week to o...

Having done earlier posts on forwards and midfielders , it's time to sneak in the defenders before the season starts. As indicated in an earlier piece on value against points earned , you can often find good value in cheaper defenders, along with those consistent performers who aren't flashy or exciting but do the business each year and give you consistent returns each week. Here are my favorite players 'under the radar' along with a couple of players just off the radar who need a bit of help before they become good pickups. Under the radar Fabio Aurelio (6.0m) Given that Liverpool were willing to let Insua leave, it seems likely that he isn't going to be first choice at Anfield this season. There is a chance that Hodgson will bring in someone else (such as Konchesky who would become a steal at 5m) but until then Aurelio looks like he will be first choice at LB. Hodgson made Fulham into one of the best defensive units around and similar success at Liverpool, w...

Here we go again. The off season seemed to fly by thanks to the World Cup and it's aftermath but the show must go on and the English Premier League is back with what promises to be a great season. I cannot pick between Chelsea and United and I genuinely feel that both Arsenal and City could be champions come May time. Add in an intriguing managerial appointment at Liverpool, drama galore at Villa and the return of a giant (Newcastle) and the season looks setup for another thriller. Week one throws up some interesting fixtures include a tone setter for Arsenal and Liverpool who clash at Anfield and a rematch of last season's Champions League decider between Spurs and City at White Hart Lane. Elsewhere, there are baptisms of fire for two of the newly promoted sides as Newcastle travel to Old Trafford and West Brom go to Stamford Bridge. Hopefully your fantasy squads are settled by now, but if not then I urge you to look back at some recent articles on goalkeeper selection , s...

Last season I did a piece that proved to be quite popular regarding the two keeper strategy of picking players whose fixtures complement each other so as to maximise the number of good games you get. Though I whiffed with one of my picks (Kirkland) the other three cheap keepers - Sorensen, Jaaskelainen and Robinson - all had good seasons (top 12 GK) and along with Joe Hart gave you plenty of budget options to deliver value at the GK position. This season I am sticking with the same strategy, especially after my recent analysis that player cost is not a great indicator of future points for keepers. With that in mind, the below shows which 'keeper pairs sit well together in order to maximize the number of games played against weaker teams. Initially I only considered players valued at 4.5m or less from teams I considered to have a chance at doing okay this season (sorry Blackpool, this means you're out). The pairs in order of average goals scored by opponents are as below, ...

Without wishing to tread on the toes on the first weekly preview post for the season, I thought it might be useful to quickly run through the strength of schedules for the new season, as these should factor into - but not wholly drive - your initial squad. Readers from last season will know how much I love looking at a team's fixtures, and I will often state how I prefer a good fantasy player (say, Clint Dempsey) with a great fixture over a great fantasy player (say, James Milner) with a so-so fixture. This holds true to an extent though two important caveats should be noted here: Don't get too cute - I would never drop Lampard on a weekly basis for someone like Steve Pienaar as there are sound reasons why Lampard costs twice as much: he plays for a top team, takes penalties and dominates the bonus category. You may look at Lampard's fixtures and decide that over a 6 game period his production might be limited and therefore look to sell him, but dropping a ...

“ It never occurred to them that, if everyone had to think outside the box, maybe it was the box that needed fixing ” [ Gladwell, What the Dog Saw ] When picking a fantasy team, like when trying to win anything, most participants will search for an ‘edge’ or secret formula to give them a jump-start over their opponents. This may take the form of relying on industry knowledge (“a friend of mine is a scout at Spurs and he assures me Assou Ekotto will retain his starting LB position from last season”), trend analysis (“Rooney scores 69% of his goals against bottom half teams”) or historical performance (“high price midfielders always out deliver their expensive forward counterparts”).  This quest for more information works on the assumption that the common ‘knowledge’ is at best limited and at worst incorrect. How true is this though? In NFL fantasy we are told to draft running backs in the first round, in baseball anyone who can deliver speed and power is a sure fire ...