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The cost of caution: delaying transfers
Striking the balance between risk and reward is a difficult task in fantasy sports and getting the wrong mix can result in wasted points and eventual failure. Perhaps this is me projecting my own views onto the analysis, but I feel that sometimes those of us who are more inclined to make decisions based on data are generally more concerned with the risk of too much action: such as paying ill-advised four-point transfers on a weekly basis or captaining players based on nothing more than a hunch. I often speak - as do those more learned than I - about the risk of relying on small samples and the need to regress anomalous results back to some form of mean to avoid overreacting to chance events, and these are indeed good virtues which will generally lead to fantasy success. What I want to talk about here though is another type of risk: the risk of in action, specifically as it pertains to making transfers. I noted last week that my team is valued at a measly 103m while the league'...
Can Sturridge replace Suarez?
I've noted a couple of times this week that I'm personally looking to make changes to my side given budgetary constraints and I assume at least some of you are in the same (or similar) position. I'd suggest the most common solution is to go with a "stars and scrubs" strategy, holding the star players like Suarez and Aguero (when healthy) while trying to fill your squad with a smattering of low priced picks who you believe you can squeeze enough value from to give you the edge. Generally, this strategy can work quite well as (a) you're better off with two players who score 8 points and 4 points than two who score 6 due to the ability to captain the star player, and (b) the game tends to leave a number of players undervalued due to a sudden increase in playing time or player improvement. However, at this stage in the season, I am concerned about the lack of budget options. The best budget options have been bid up to mid level prices and thus if you want to ho...