PLFantasy

Striking the balance between risk and reward is a difficult task in fantasy sports and getting the wrong mix can result in wasted points and eventual failure. Perhaps this is me projecting my own views onto the analysis, but I feel that sometimes those of us who are more inclined to make decisions based on data are generally more concerned with the risk of too much action: such as paying ill-advised four-point transfers on a weekly basis or captaining players based on nothing more than a hunch. I often speak - as do those more learned than I - about the risk of relying on small samples and the need to regress anomalous results back to some form of mean to avoid overreacting to chance events, and these are indeed good virtues which will generally lead to fantasy success. What I want to talk about here though is another type of risk: the risk of in action, specifically as it pertains to making transfers. I noted last week that my team is valued at a measly 103m while the league'...

The Gambler's fallacy is a well documented theory which, loosely put, sets out that just because something has happened 20 times in row, the chance of it happening again is not diminished. In gambling we limit this to non-dependent events like coin tosses or roulette spins, but there is an application to fantasy scoring too. Fantasy scoring is not totally non-dependant as players get in form and teams gel as a unit, but there is certainly a case for not waiting through 8 barren gameweeks on the basis that a player is 'due' for a big game to turn it all around. With this in mind, I am introducing a new list of players who I have no problem cutting loose at this point in the season. I am not suggesting that they have no value for the year, but based on the immediate future, better options can be found and holding them may cost you weeks of wasted cash. Following this strategy may cause you to miss a big week from a player as any downturn from a top player is temporary, but...

As a few of you may have gathered from my tweeting and comments over the weekend, I playing my wildcard this weekend, as I am sure a few others are considering doing. Otis posted that it might be fun to run through my thoughts, so here is my old team, followed by the proposed new team: Expired Juice Thomas Sorensen Second among all keepers (playing a game less than many) and first in PPMS (1.585), Sorensen has been this year's Schwarzer and pretty much a must own. Unfortunately most people identified this before the season so we haven't see a meteoric price rise for the former Villa man. He should return from injury this week and he will be staying in the Juice ranks as long as he remains fit. Ben Foster Fourth in points among keepers but only 10th in terms of PPMS, I am satisfied if not thrilled with Foster but with Vidic and Ferdinand back from injury the clean sheets should be more frequent for United, and with Van der Sar still a way from returning, and Foster aiming to ho...