PLFantasy

One area I have neglected a bit this season is to help to answer one of the key questions we face each week: who looks like a better play this week between player A and player B. With forwards and midfielders this is hard to do as intangibles such as form and fitness play a huge role and I therefore find it better to pick offensive players based on a 3-8 week period rather than for a one off game. Defenders however rise and fall with their unit and matchup plays a huge factor in determining who is best to play. It is also important to consider where the game is being played as I'm sure we'd all consider Stoke at the Brittania a tough matchup but are we all aware that they conceded the most goals of any non-relegated side on the road last year. Equally, Spurs ranked 1st in home defense last year but 18th when away from the Lane. I have therefore compiled a list which I will update each week of the best plays for this week only . I do not advise buying players on this basis unle...

Anyone who read the blog last year will know that I am huge advocate of playing the fixture list and picking players based almost as much on their matchup as their innate footballing talent. I assess a team's strength of schedule by looking at how their opponents have fared at home and on the road, for example: Arsenal face the following three opponents: @Eve, Sun, @MNU. Their strength of schedule would be calculated as the average number of goals Everton score at home, plus the average goals scored at on the road by Sunderland plus United's average home goals, divided by three. As you can see, it isn't rocket science but it can highlight some surprising insights (eg. statistically, Blackburn away is only a slightly tougher fixture in terms of goals per game than United at home). For this season, I am taking a slightly different approach and rather than just calculate a team's strength of schedule, I am combining it with the average goals conceded by that team at home/a...