Posts

Showing posts with the label Alex

Alex injury

It seems that Alex picked up an injury at the end of the Arsenal game and now looks set to miss 3 weeks of action. Before you press the panic button I thought I should lay down a few words of caution. 1. Alex has been sensational value this season and is third among all defenders I track in aPPMS. With the other two being El Mohamady (who is overly reliant on attacking points) and Salcido (who has only played 3 games) I would not bet against Alex leading the lot when the season is done. 2. Three weeks sounds bad but it could result in him missing just one EPL start - at Villa in GW8. This isn't a great defensive fixture anyway and so if your squad works out well you may not even lose that much. They also play Wolves at home (a very good defensive fixture) in 18 days so if Alex missed that one it would be a blow. 3. Alex has seen his price rise by 0.1m already this week after his big week so only a massive fire sale will cause his value to fall. My advice: stick with him. C...

Undervalued Teammates

One of the easiest ways to save money without losing too much production is to look for players that are cheaper than their teammates but still play similar levels of minutes. This is a hallowed strategy in fantasy circles and needs no further explanation here. What I do want to discuss is (a) which players allow us to execute this strategy and (b) is this strategy always reliable. Undervalued teammates How comfortable would you be picking your weekly defence from Richard Dunne, John Terry, Nemanja Vidic, Roger Johnson and Jody Craddock? Last season these players ranked 1st, 3rd, 8th, 18th, and 35th (Vidic was injured) among all defenders in the game and totalled 657 points between them. At the same PPG rates this year they would amass 630 points even if they each played in a conservative 32 games each (or an incredible 749 points if they each played every week). At the time of writing this group of players will set you back 31.0m which means you would receive a PPMS ...

Ramble On: Gameweek 2

The below is a bit late due to my lack of internet access. The GW3 preview will also be up shortly.  Seeing as these gameweek roundups invariably descend into random thoughts from the football world, I thought I would rename the segment as both a nod to the nature of my posts and to the greatest rock band of all time (see how even the introductions are now rambling . . . good luck to the reader!). This week is one in which my concise writing would be especially beneficial given the goals (38) and fantasy excitement of this past week. Without further ado then I will start with a few big performances that require our attention: Theo Walcott (7.1m) - I included Walcott in my ' under the radar' piece before the season started so while Walcott enjoying success is not a total surprise, the timing is much earlier than I expected. It is pleasing to see him flourish early in the season as this performance should buy him some patience for when he inevitably has one of those incon...

Strength of Schedule

Image
One of the most overlooked aspects of Fantasy Football is the matchups our players face each week. Most players seem to simply follow trends (which can sometimes work) and pick those players who have racked up alot of points to date or in the previous week. However, this obviously ignores the fixtures on the horizon and often leads to wasted transfers and point chasing. By assigning a figure (1, 2 or 3) to each team based on their performance to date - in terms of goals scored and conceded whilst at home and away - we can generate a strength of schedule for defensive and attacking players. Defensive players Based on the next 6 games, the best strength of schedules for defensive players are: - Liverpool 1.3 - Sunderland 1.3 - Aston Villa 1.7 - Blackburn 1.7 - Chelsea 1.7 - Hull 1.7 (an average schedule would be 2.0) This clearly shows that Liverpool have a combination of the league's second best defense along with the easiest defensive schedule, which should lead to bumper points fo...

Gameweek 11 Running Diary (Part II)

16:09 Back under way in the Premier League with no notable substitutions to comment on. 16:12 100 league goals for Lampard as the goals keep flowing at Stamford Bridge. Lampard is in delicious form and is a must have for fantasy teams if your budget will stretch to it. I can almost feel the 3 bonus points. 16:13 Anelka hattrick! Okay so maybe it'll be 2 bonus points for Lamps. Another assist for Malouda too. Chelsea are rampant 5-0. 16:16 Bednar makes a claim to the top sub-6m striker title with his 4th of the season. At 5.4 he might be worth a look. 16:17 United get their 4th through Vidic, assisted by Rooney. That's Vidic's first this season. 16:22 West Brom take the lead as they punish 10 man Blackburn, no points for identifying the turning point of that game! This time its a sub-5m man, Ishmael Miller, who has tempted me in the past. If he continues to play he is a steal at 4.9m. Only the second time this season the Baggies have bagged two. 16:26 As we stand Pure Juice ...

Injury Roundup/Week Ahead

Image
Everton v Fulham No regular first teamers are out for either side. Everton players are a good bet this week with Fulham not travelling too well this year (only 2 goals in 4 games scored). The impressive Fulham defense is less so on the road having failed to keep a clean sheet so far. One to watch: Tim Cahill Chelsea v Sunderland Carvalho is back on the sidelines and could be out for up to three weeks. This makes Alex (5.6) an interesting prospect once more with Sunderland at home this week and decent fixtures after that (@Bla, @WH, New). Ballack and Drogba are also sidelined, though there is a chance Cole could return. If you own him for some reason I'd probably keep him out for one more week. Craig Gordon is also a doubt though you want to avoid him anyway in what should be a win for the home side. One to watch: Alex Man Utd v Hull Hargreaves and Scholes are still out which means Carrick, Fletcher and Anderson will battle it our for playing time. I wouldn't suggest that any o...

The season so far . . .

Image
So far its been a pretty successful season, having scored 466 points and lying 620th place after gameweek 8. However, having already used my wildcard to get into the Ronaldo sweepstakes, it is vital that I use my transfers wisely over the coming weeks. A quick look at my team in terms of Points per Million Spent makes interesting reading (I have assumed that I will captain Ronaldo every week): E.Van der Sar The big Dutchman has been a great acquisition for me, notching 3 clean sheets in the 3 games I've had him. Indeed he's been great value all season notching 4 clean sheets in the 6 full games he's played. I can't see why he is still 5.9m and I am sure he will rise in value in the next couple of weeks. With United facing only one hard game over the next 5 (@Ars) now is as good a time as any to buy Van der Sar. M.Schwarzer I'm pleased with Schwarzer's value and only Myhill (4m) has scored more points for the same value. Sorenson and Turnbull are also decent buy...

Strength of Schedule

Image
The story so far A figure often cited in the NFL is a team's strength of schedule, referring to the winning percentage of the team's you are set to face in a given season. This is of course useless for the Premier League as all team face other 19 twice. However, in fantasy league, playing the fixture list is vital and if managed correctly can be a real boost to a team and can even give you 12 or 13 players on your side. To get a very crude strength of schedule (SOS) for the premier league I attach a value (1,2 or 3) to each team's attack and defense whilst at home and on the road, then average these for a team's fixture list to date. So if you've played two 3-rated teams and two 1-rated teams, your SOS would be 2.00 (8/4). Comparing this with other teams gives an indication on how well your players have really done in the games they've played. For attackers up to the end of week 6, West Ham and Everton have the lowest SOS (1.33), followed by Fulham (1.40), Ch...

It isn't quatum physics

Image
Saturday sees the anniversary of Einstein's paper "Does the Inertia of a Body Depend Upon Its Energy Content?" which first introduced the equation E=MC2. Such intricacies and brain power will not be required this week in the fantasy world. Four of the best hot spots for fantasy talent - Arsenal, United, Chelsea and Villa - all face what appear to easy matchups that could be filled with goals and fantasy points. Its surely a matter of filling your lineup with as many of these as possible to max out your points this week. Arsenal v Hull City Hull have impressed so far with the exception of the Wigan game where their potential frailty was exposed. Arsenal have been in good form this season and after a bit of a nervy start against Bolton they played some breathtaking flowing football where the only disadvantage for fantasy owners was that anyone in the team could pop up with a goal (or be benched in van Persie's case). With the big guns rested against Hull you would ex...