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Lineup Lessons: Gameweek 13

Goalscorers are highlighted in bold , players with an assist are underlined . Arsenal Szczesny, Jenkinson, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Gibbs, Arteta, Ramsey, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Cazorla, Podolski, Giroud Subs: Mannone, Sagna, Vermaelen, Wilshere, Coquelin, Arshavin, Gervinho Wenger made a few changes here, though he confirmed after the game that Vermaelen, Sagna and Wilshere were all short of fitness, so I wouldn't overreact there. Mertesacker remains the safest/cheapest way to access this underrated unit, assuming that experienced trio return in future weeks. Going forward, this was obviously a disappointing result for the Gunners, and while they did manage 12 shots (just one on target), that's below average for both Villa's home defense (16) and Arsenal's road attack (14) so I'm not willing to let them off the hook, for just having an unlucky day in front of goal. In terms of job security that front three are all going to play in virtually every game, but we...

Gameweek 13 Preview

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Team Attacking Forecast Powered by Tableau Team Defensive Forecast Powered by Tableau Individual Player Forecast Powered by Tableau In anticipation of the inevitable "why do you hate van Persie" questions, I thought I better add a quick note on his unexpectedly low ranking here. Powered by Tableau The key difference the model sees between van Persie and Rooney is simply the percentage of United's chances he has accounted for when playing. Rooney sits at 29% in home games while van Persie comes in with a useful 20%, which based on United's forecast 14 SiB gives Rooney a forecast 1.3 shot advantage. Rooney also enjoys a distinct advantage in SoB, though given the low likelihood of those turning into goals, that doesn't have a huge impact. This all translates to a relatively slim, but not insignificant, 1.4 point lead and thus likely some scorn for these electronic pages. If I'm honest, if I owned both players and hadn...

Gameweek 13 Preview

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For the first time this year, I have included data based purely on the current season as 12 games appears to be a relatively useful sample size. I apply a small adjustment to try and account for the strength of schedule already faced (ie. have you played, and been destroyed by, City yet?) but I'm not sure that is tough enough to make the data really reliable. Hence, I am still leaning on the hybrid (current and prior year) data but it's useful to start factoring in the pure current year rankings at this stage. Without running through each difference individually, I just want to highlight the difference a season can make. City rank 14th in this week's rankings but would be number one based purely on their 6 road games this year (in which they've scored an astonishing 23 goals despite travelling to Old Trafford, Craven Cottage and White Hart Lane). Given the way the team has changed in personnel (hello, Mr Aguero) and also tactical deployment (hello, attacking play)...