PLFantasy

Quick note: One of the reasons I restarted the blog this year was that my wife and I were expecting twins in late September so I knew I would be home a lot more with plenty of sleepless hours available to mindlessly consume football matches. Well, the twins didn't think this was a great idea and decided to convert xTwins into Twins on August 13th. This means I've been a bit delayed rolling out some of the models and ideas I had to kick off the season but once we get into a routine I will ramp up the content a bit. I like to think that they are already concerned about the potential issues around small sample sizes and wanted to force me to wait until the season was a few weeks old before overreacting. Selecting defenders and 'keepers requires a different strategy to your attacking options, given that so much of their value is locked up in their team's performance. Of course, playing on a good team will help any player but while it's possible to have a lot of succes...

With the new season upon us I wanted to get out some quick and dirty forecasts for the first few weeks of the year. The forecast data is almost entirely based on prior year data so I have not taken into account players changing teams (Lukaku, Walker) or those with new opportunities and teammates. By definition, a lack of historic data means that the new arrivals (Morata, Lacazette) are also missing for now, but will be added as soon as we have a small amount of data to go on. The defensive data looks a bit wacky for now so I would base my defensive decisions more on the team projections for now. I will also update and share some workings around how the model is going to work this year as I try to improve on the decent, but far from perfect version from a couple of seasons back. It's great to be back and I thank everyone reading this for giving the blog another chance. Please share your thoughts in the comments or on Twitter and I will make changes in the coming weeks. Good l...

While I generally go to great lengths to emphasise the need to avoid placing too much weight on small samples and recent results, I also recognise that absolute certainty is not something we have time to wait for so with five weeks in the books it's time to start delving into the numbers, starting here with a first look at some of the team trends. We're focusing on teams first as their data tends to stabilise much quicker than for an individual player 1 and thus becomes more reliable at an early stage in the season. To underline this point, let's look at some like-for-like data from last season. We've plotted each team's SiB +/- 2 through the first five gameweeks of last season against their eventual season total to see how well these two metrics correlate. The stronger this correlation, the higher our confidence that early season results tell us a lot about the way the rest of the season might play out: Learn About Tableau It isn't perfect, of course, ...

In case anyone missed today's announcement, I've been lucky enough to be invited to write some guest posts over at Fantasy Football Scout . I'm sure everyone who reads this humble blog is well aware of the awesomeness of FFS, but if not then I whole heartedly recommend the site as a daily must read. Nothing will change here and I'll continue to post the weekly preview, lineup lessons and other ramblings you've grown accustomed too. My posts at FFS will be a mixture between free to all and members only, and I'll link to them from here (and note whether you need to be a member or not). I'll also continue to ramble on Twitter @plfantasy - something I recommend for all. It may not sound like everyone's thing but even if you never post, it's a great way to follow the news and keep up to date without trawling sites every day. Anyway, thanks for everyone's continued support and I look forward to the remainder of the season which is shaping up ni...

Welcome back everyone. It seems like just a couple of weeks since the United players were lofting the Premier League trophy up high - before most of them signed for Sunderland that is. This site has been quiet since then I didn't even get a chance to chip in with my end of season thoughts as I have been re-working my data to try and setup better predictive tools for next season. In the meantime I have an exciting opportunity involving a new fantasy game - SimPrem . I have long speculated on the creation of a draft style game in which each player can only be owned by a single team and the boys over at SP have delivered in a major way. The rules are fairly complex compared to the PremierLeague.com game but they are intuitive and once you understand them, they should make the game very interesting to play. John and Doug are currently welcoming new entrants to the league so I thought I'd put it out there for any readers who are keen to try something new and can commit...

It's a sad day when the season ends, particularly when the title race is over. However, for me, the excitement is just as high (or higher) at the other end of the table and so there's plenty to keep watching for. Oh, and there's the small matter of the last fantasy gameweek to deal with. Hopefully everyone has their mini leagues wrapped up by now (okay maybe not) but just in case, the weekly rankings are below. Clean Sheet Rankings Man Utd Stoke Tottenham Aston Villa West Ham Chelsea Bolton Newcastle Wolves Everton Sunderland Man City Liverpool Arsenal Fulham Wigan Birmingham Blackburn West Brom Blackpool  Attacking Rankings Man Utd Tottenham Chelsea Arsenal Liverpool Wolves Aston Villa West Brom Fulham Man City Sunderland Newcastle West Ham Blackburn Wigan Stoke Bolton Blackpool Everton Birmingham I will have to cut the preview short this week as I head down to Florida for a few days, but I would like to take the chance to thank ...

There are always new lessons to be learned when it comes to fantasy football, even when you get into the last gasps of a fading season. Last week, a fantasy rambler not too far from here noted: “Mario Balotelli . . . might be worth a punt but it really would be a risk at this point. Only those needing to gain ground on opponents should apply.” A couple of Friday night beers and YouTube videos can do funny things to a fantasy team though and come Saturday morning, Balotelli was lacing up his boots for my team, despite the fact I had everything to lose and nothing to gain in my main mini league. We’ve no more double gameweeks to get carried away with but the lesson stands – don’t overpay for upside unless you’re totally desperate. With two weeks to go a majority of people probably are desperate but 4 point hits rarely work out and I would almost never recommend using them in a non double gameweek. Observant readers might expect to see last week's Fulham clean sheet ...

The league title might be decided this weekend but the fantasy season keeps going and with three gameweeks left there is still plenty to play for. On a personal level I set the bar for a successful season at 2,000 points so anyone flirting with that still has something to aim for. Add in countless mini leagues that remain unsettled and the importance of these games becomes clear. The key to the week is undoubtedly the DGWs for City and Spurs though be careful about over doing it here as the matchup between the two doesn't play out as a great fixture for either. Also consider that Spurs have to go to Anfield next week before loading up on too many of Redknapp's boys. Clean Sheet Rankings Man City (5 - 2) and (10 - 3) Fulham (9 - 4) Man Utd (10 - 6) Tottenham (5 - 7) and (2 - 3) Aston Villa (6 - 8) Bolton (5 - 8) Newcastle (4 - 5) Everton (5 - 6) West Ham (4 - 5) Wolves (3 - 7) Stoke (6 - 2) Chelsea (4 - 0) Wigan (3 - 4) Arsenal (4 - 3) Liverpool (5 - 3) West Br...

With five teams (Bolton, Fulham, Man City, Stoke and Wolves) not in action this week a few of us might be scrambling for one-week mercenaries this week. With the DGWs falling to Arsenal, Chelsea and Birmingham the one week filler pool is somewhat limited with the big boys tending to be largely overpriced. Saying that, there is some potential within both these teams and others with good fixtures if you need a quick fix. Theo Walcott (6.9m) - he isn't extremely cheap at 6.9m but given his production I think he justifies a much loftier price. Over the season he ranks 4th among midfielders in aPoints and 9th overall. The downside, of course, has been his inability to stay on the field but Wenger tends to play him at home with Walcott starting the last 7 home games he was available for, so you should be able to avoid the dreaded 10 minute garbage time appearance. At worst I would expect 120 minutes and given the majority of that should be against a Liverpool side who hav...

After what seems like an eternity, we are back in action this week with a couple of GW27 stragglers today and tomorrow before a (close to) full program on the weekend. Before we get into the rankings though, let's run around the league and check in with those who tend to know best: the local papers (incidentally, if anyone has a recommendation for a team blog who always get big news, injuries etc right, please pass on the link and I'll add it to the league links review). The Treatment Room He's close to returning from injury but Houllier has already stated that Petrov will have to accept platooning with new arrivals Bradley and Makoun. None of this trio are fantasy worthy right now, especially given the risk of losing minutes every other week. With Sam Ricketts joining Steinsson on the sidelines, Marcos Alonso (4.0m) has a chance to earn some playing minutes for Bolton. Having arrived in the summer from Real Madrid, Alonso has struggled to settle in this term but now ...

No league games this weekend but we do have midweek action so I'm putting the rankings up now. Clean Sheet Rankings (clean sheets home/away - opponent failed to score home/away) Man Utd (7 - 5) Man City (4 - 4) Liverpool (5 - 4) Sunderland (7 - 5) Chelsea (3 - 2) Arsenal (4 - 3) Fulham (5 - 2) Blackburn (5 - 2) West Brom (1 - 6) Bolton (2 - 4) Birmingham (4 - 4) Blackpool (0 - 6) Wigan (3 - 2) Newcastle (3 - 1) Everton (2 - 2) Tottenham (0 - 2) Stoke (2 - 1) Wolves (1 - 3) West Ham (0 - 0) Aston Villa (0 - 0) Attacking Rankings Man Utd Blackpool Arsenal Blackburn Bolton Man City West Ham West Brom Fulham Newcastle Tottenham Liverpool Wigan Chelsea Wolves Everton Sunderland Stoke Birmingham Aston Villa Captain Stats It's almost impossible to look past the United pair of Berbatov and Nani this week. United score more goals than anyone at hone while Villa boast the league's leakiest road back line. After his hattrick last week, B...

I am always on the look out for new ways to predict fantasy results, especially those which take a quantitative look at evaluating data rather than just the usual 'hunches'. One such site I stumbled across recently was Fantasy Football Advice . They use predictive data to predict a player's score for the week and then if you log in using your pl.com team, the site can suggest potential transfers to maximise returns for the week. While you won't always agree with the suggestions (this week the site recommends selling Van der Vaart, someone I am very high on) it gives a useful second opinion and is a great confidence boost if it suggests the same transfer you already had in mind. This is exactly what happened a couple of weeks ago when I started to get cold feet about dumping Hutton for Coleman. Fantasy Advice recommended the same course of action, I made the transfer and Coleman has gone on to score 12 points over the past two weeks. My philosophy for fantasy sports ...

I've decided to start posting these rankings as soon as possible each week to help everyone with transfer as well as lineup decisions. I can then follow up later in the week with injury news etc. Therefore I will include players on the assumption they will play unless they are definately out through long term injury or suspension. Clean Sheet Rankings Tottenham Man Utd West Ham Aston Villa Arsenal Everton Wigan Man City Bolton Fulham Wolves Chelsea Sunderland Stoke Newcastle Birmingham Liverpool West Brom Blackburn Blackpool Attacking rankings Bolton Man Utd Everton Tottenham Fulham Chelsea Man City Wolves Newcastle Sunderland Birmingham Blackpool Stoke West Ham West Brom Aston Villa Arsenal Wigan Blackburn Liverpool Captain Stats Rafael van der Vaart - Averaging 9.4 PPG at home and 9.5 PPG against opponents who concede between 1 and 1.5 GPG. The form player in the league and close to must own right now. Nani - Averaging 8.67 PPG at ho...

When a team loses badly they always say that the best thing is to play again soon to banish the bad memories. I am therefore very thankful for the midweek action so I don't dwell on my disastrous wildcard forray last week resulting in a miserable 24 point week. The weekly wrap up will go up Wednesday night for GW11 and GW12 combined to allow for me to get the preview column out now. Clean Sheet Rankings Chelsea (0.15) Birmingham (0.36) Aston Villa (0.35) Tottenham (0.44) Liverpool (0.79) Newcastle (0.81) Everton (0.91) Arsenal (0.92) Stoke (0.97) Wigan (1.01) Man City (1.35) Wolves (1.37) West Ham (1.43) Man Utd (1.57) Bolton (2.00) Blackpool (2.03) West Brom (2.11) Sunderland (2.14) Blackburn (2.72) Fulham (3.39) Attacking rankings Chelsea (3.39) Newcastle (2.72) Tottenham (2.14) West Ham (2.11) Aston Villa (2.03) Everton (2.00) Stoke (1.62) Man City (1.57) West Brom (1.43) Arsenal (1.37) Man Utd (1.35) Birmingham (1.16) Liverpool (1.01) Wolves...

No rambling this week as I've been moving home with boxes stacked high and much upheaval. This isn't unlike my fantasy team which is chaotic and unpredictable and might need a renovation of it's own very soon. I was saved last week by Vidic and Adam's performances but cruelly punished by last minute goals conceded by Williamson and Jaaskelainen. As you have hopefully noticed I am starting to re-design the site a bit to give everyone constant access to the stats I try and incorporate into my work. I have started with the aPPMS and aPoints to the right of this post and I will be adding short and long term strength of schedules soon. Any requests for specific data to be posted would be welcomed. Without further delay then, here are this week's rankings: Clean Sheet Rankings (expected goals conceded in parenthesis) Birmingham (0.28) Sunderland (0.38) Man Utd (0.40) Blackburn (0.60) Fulham (0.64) Arsenal (0.69) Chelsea (0.98) West Brom (1.02) Everton (1.0...

I'm putting all the design nonsense to one side to get down to some actual fantasy writing. As I'm sure most of you are chomping at the bit to get into your transfers/lineups so I will get straight down to business. Clean Sheet Rankings Aston Villa (0.43) Arsenal (0.49) Chelsea (0.56) Man City (0.69) Everton (0.72) Bolton (0.72) Newcastle (0.72) Fulham (0.77) Man Utd (0.82) Blackburn (1.26) Wolves (1.26) Wigan (1.60) Blackpool (1.72) Liverpool (1.74) Stoke (1.93) Sunderland (1.95) Birmingham (2.05) Tottenham (2.44) West Brom (2.79) West Ham (4.53) Captain Rankings Cesc Fabregas: Arsenal are the top rated team for the week with an expected 4.5 goals. Arsenal have scored 10 league goals with Fabregas on the pitch this season and he has scored or assisted three of them. This would suggest he should notch points this week and I wouldn't bet against him getting one of each, even after his penalty miss last week. Dimitar Berbatov: 38 points in 4 home ga...

I hope my previous post wasn't too downbeat as that was not the intention. It was more an expression of frustration in being unable to quantify where the fantasy success is coming from, even with the benefit of hindsight. For now though, let's put the stats aside and have our familiar (if abbreviated) ramble around the league. Clean Sheets Okay so I won't totally depart from the stats. Only 5 clean sheets this week, four of which came in two 0-0 stalemates at Villa and Ewood Park. I loved Blackburn to get the clean sheet this week but Sunderland were somewhat of a surprise given their torrid away form over the past 18 months. I did think that Villa might get a draw against Chelsea but I backed the 1-1 as suggested by my prediction spreadsheet. So far we've had 43 clean sheets, only topping 6 for a week once (in a cagey week 1). I have suggested in the past that budget defenders might be the way to go as there is little historic correlation between cost and points a...

Boy those international weeks drag. It seems like months ago that Alex wrapped up the week with that goal but fear not as we return with some tasty fixtures for both fantasy and real reasons. The Merseyside derby looks even more interesting than usual thanks to the takeover drama at Anfield while home games against West Brom and Birmingham for United and Arsenal suggest goals a plenty for the big boys this week. You never can be sure though so hopefully the below stats and rankings can at least give us some clues who to back this week. Defensive Rankings (Based on current and prior year stats. Current year only rank in parenthesis) Man Utd (4) Blackburn (6) Newcastle (5) Bolton (11) Arsenal (15) Wolves (2) Everton (10) Fulham (6) Chelsea (9) West Ham (18) Aston Villa (6) Man City (3) Stoke (15) Tottenham (12) Liverpool (17) Blackpool (13) Sunderland (14) Wigan (1) Birmingham (20) West Brom (19) With Chelsea facing a tough trip (on paper) to Villa Park you hav...

I'm not sure there are many things in the fantasy world I enjoy more than tinkering with my team and seeing what I can get by using my wildcard. In previous years I have been forced to use my wildcard early but this year my team is still fairly strong so I could delay if I want to. However, there are pros and cons to holding onto your wildcard: Pros You can use the wildcard at a later date to take advantage of double gameweeks or if your team falls prey to numerous injuries. You can play your wildcard towards the end of the season when fantasy teams tend to get stale but real teams can hit runs of good form. We are still not totally sure which teams and players are for real and so using your wildcard now might result in you bringing in a load of in-form but ultimately overpriced lemons. With the other wildcard in your back pocket, you can select a team now based purely on the next 15 gameweeks and then redo your team again during the transfer window. Cons If you fall too fa...

I'm in a dangerous position. I'm happy with my team but two back-to-back average weeks (which were an Alex wonder goal away from being poor) have me feeling antsy. It's like when you're sat in a good bar on a Saturday night. You're happy. The beer is good. And the atmosphere is decent. But, you can't help wonder what else is available. Sure you're gonna have fun, but is it going to memorable? I think my team if fine. But is is memorable? There has been talk on the boards of wildcards but I've decided that with Drogba, Berbatov, Nani, Alex being locks to stay put and the fact I'm happy with Vidic, Odenwingie and Adam, there doesn't seem to be much point wasting my wildcard too soon. Hence I am looking to reload rather than re-build my squad. The obvious (and likely) choice is to switch Koncheky out for Boateng who I am very high on . I could also bring Boateng in for one of my budget defenders given that I have 2.8m sat in the bank. However, I...