PLFantasy

I've missed a couple of 'fanning the flames' pieces over the festive period as the games have simply come too quickly to stay on top of. Given the fact that the wildcard window is about to open, I thought it might be useful to look over the last four  gameweeks of action and perform the same analysis as we normally do; deciding whether their success is legitimately repeatable. As in prior weeks, each player is assigned a 'buy', 'hold/monitor' or 'sell' status. These do not necessarily reflect what I would personally do, rather what I suggest to be a decision based in logic. For example, I might feel that Rooney represents better value than van Persie, but I would still 'buy' the Dutchman's success and consider him very ownable. The different assigned statuses are summarised as: Buy - the player can be purchased immediately taking consideration of his playing time, fixtures, injury status etc. This status does not necessarily mean yo

In the interest of time given the busy festive schedule, I'm posting the fanning the flames  data now and will hopefully get a chance to flesh it our with some narrative in the next day or so. I thought it was more a priority to get GW19 rankings up though, which will be posted in the next few hours. Powered by Tableau

Looking back at last season Finished 4th in clean sheets (14) despite notching just 2 in the first 9 gameweeks (Chelsea already had 7 at that point). 8 clean sheets over the final 15 games suggest the team may be ready to become an elite defense once again under Dalglish Better defensively at home (0.74 GPG ) but still serviceable on the road (1.58 GPG ) making defenders playable virtually every week. Failed to score just 7 times all season and only twice under Dalglish (the final two games of the season with little to play for). Scored 23 goals in 20 games under Hodgson then 36 in 18 with Dalglish at the helm.  Boasted the 4th best home offense (1.95 GPG ) but were only okay away (1.16 GPG ). Defensive unit ranked 5th in total points and 6th in P$ . Part of this is based on the successful usage of some cheaper youngsters but it's an impressive record nonetheless. The midfield did well in total points with 706 (4th) but this translated into poor value for money with a P$ o

Oscar Wilde once wrote that "everything popular is wrong"; a point echoed by the majority of my posts singing the praises of differentiation and uncovering the next sleeper. However, the selection of your star players is equally important and with just 7 weeks to go, now is a great time to assess who will shine the brightest. I am going to focus on midfielders today (and forwards tomorrow) given that the weekly value of defenders/keepers is driven too much by the form/fitness of the squad rather than an individual's ability/form. Midfielders Four double digit million players are available in the game, and it is here that our attention will be focused. I accept that an argument can be made for, say, James Milner over Andrei Arshavin but given the difference in price it seems illogical to compare those two types of player. In order to avoid too much text and to get into the numbers I have created a quick box score to summarise each player. This will be as below: Name (Go

I thought it might be useful to do a bit of analysis on how bonus points are awarded with a hope of getting a higher return on these valuable extras available each week. First then, let's look at the facts so far, through 7 weeks of the new season: 92% of bonus points are awarded to players from the winning side, 51% of bonus points are awarded to players who score a goal during the week, The top 5 strikers account for 36% of all points awarded to forwards. The top 5 midfielders account for just 13% of midfield points, 47% of all bonus points awarded to midfielders have been given to players who cost 6m or less. This figure is only 24% for strikers, Goalkeepers account for just 4% of bonus points awarded and Ben Foster is the only 'keeper to score any points (2) from the big four sides, 32% of all defenders' bonus points have been given to a defender that scored that day, The 'big five' teams (including City) account for 38% of all bonus points awarded; including 44

Gameweek 7 fixtures Portsmouth v Everton Birmingham v Bolton Blackburn v Aston Villa Liverpool v Hull City Stoke City v Man Utd Tottenham v Burnley Wigan v Chelsea Fulham v Arsenal Sunderland v Wolves Man City v West Ham It could be a great week to have players from the big sides as all top s even sides are strong favourites to win this week. In fantasy terms, Liverpool, Spurs and Chelsea have particularly attractive fixtures and should be a good source of points this week. Of the big four sides, Liverpool are by the far the strongest p lay, with the bookies offering 23-1 odds on a Hull victory. Liverpool have the most home goals this season while the Tigers have the second worst away record. The potential for goals is so strong that it might be worth considering using your transfer solely for the purpose of getting Torres or Gerrard in just for this week. Captain Rankings 1. Steven Gerrard 2. Fernando Torres 3. Jermaine Defoe 4. Frank Lampard 5. Nicholas Anelka As noted above, three

If your team is based around 11 7m guys then this article isn't for you. If however, like most fantasy players you like to have a premier player or two, then read on for some thoughts on how to pick your lynch pin. The main advantage in my eyes of bringing in a premier player for your team is the fact you can captain him and bring in a unrivalled amount of points. For example, last year Lampard scored 226 points, which would give you 452 points if you captained him every week. Even at his steep price tag of 12.5m this season, a similar level of production would lead to a 0.952 PPMS and almost 12 points per game. This kind of production is just not possible from 2 or even 3 mid level players, even if you strike it rich with a cheap superstar like Stephen Ireland. Factor in the chance to find a bargain to play alongside your stud (perhaps Larsson, Jimenez or Muamba) and the choice to grab a star player appears to be made for you. But who do you take? With over a tenth of your whole b

Taking a break from the statistical analysis, lets take a trip around the league and see what managers, players and even pundits are talking about, as we try and glean some concrete information upon which to base our fantasy strategies: Frank Lampard is my new Kaka This one all but confirms Frank's return to my team, with a promotion to default Captain highly likely. For those who don't follow Italian football, here is Kaka's line from last season at Milan: 31 appearances (3 as sub), 16 goals, 9 assists Lampard , in his fantasy leading 226 point season had 12 goals and 10 assists, so the type of production seen above would be outstanding. Of course, I think we all agree that Kaka is a more gifted player but Anelotti's system does promise much and in light of Gerrard's court issues (see below) I think Lampard is the premier player in the league right now. Lampard also converted a penalty against Inter , as if to further underline his fantasy

After two more miserable performances from Ronaldo over the Christmas period, many owners are getting close to dumping Ronaldo and the net transfers for the week are in a small outflow position. I myself was considering dumping him for Gerrard until Gerrard's off the field antics cast doubt over his future for the coming weeks. Three points need raising though before any rash decisions are made: 1. Ronaldo still leads all fantasy players with 6.67 points per game ( PPG ) which equates to a Points Per Million Spent ( PPMS ) of 0.457, which is ahead of Deco (o.444) and Fabregas (0.424) among others. If you have captained Ronaldo every week (or even just a few of his 15 point+ performances) then his PPMS will be up with anyone else in the league. It is also important to remember that value for money ( ie PPMS ) will only carry your team a certain distance and it is actual points ( PPG ) that really matters. 2. United have two double gameweeks in the next 5 and then have a 3 g

No not an invitation to a christmas party but rather a fantasy conundrum. As I have three Wigan players, a lame duck (Agger) and Ronaldo I need to make two transfers to ensure I can even field a team this week. I am therefore transferring Ronaldo out on the assumption that if I act quickly I can initially lose 0.3m which will be cut to 0.2 as I expect his price to fall by next week and Gerrard's to rise due to all the Ronaldo sellers. I have all but settled on Gerrard as the replacement which, on the assumption that prices don't move, leaves me 0.2 to spend upgrading somewhere else whilst still leaving me with 3.1 to get Ronaldo back next week for the Stoke game. The question therefore is how to spend that 0.2m. I need to use it on one of my players who are off this week so the choice is Figueroa or Agger (I'm still holding Zaki and Valencia). Agger (5.9) This gives me 6.1 which doesn't buy a great deal these days as you cannot touch the big boys apart from Alex or O