Ten gameweek goal forecast
I meant to post this a few days back but I was having some troubles with Tableau (my skill level not the software, which is great). Anyway, here are the forecasts goals per game for the first ten gameweeks of the season based purely on prior year data. The calculation uses a combination of a team's own defense and the strength of the opposition to generate the expected goals scored/conceded. I haven't made any adjustments for transfers, manager changes etc as that is all too subjective and if I overlay my personal opinions on the relative strengths of the new arrivals then the data just becomes an extension of my own biases which are helpful to no one. If you believe that Tottenham will be much better with Vertonghen in defense then feel free to make the mental adjustments yourself. For the promoted teams I use a factor to translate their Championship data into a Premier League expectation. This is explained in more detail here . Note that for the GW1 double gameweeks, ...