PLFantasy

Looking back at last season One of three sides (with Newcastle and Man Utd) to average over 2.0 GPG at home. Also one of three sides (with Arsenal and Man Utd) to average more than 1.5 GPG at home and on the road Failed to score a goal a surprising 9 times, equal with West Brom and once more than Blackpool 15 clean sheets ranked second only to Man City with 11 at home also second in the league (again, Man City led). Averaged just 1.05 GPG conceded on the road, a league best mark, but yet only recorded 4 clean sheets away from Stamford Bridge. Started the season with 7 clean sheets in the first 9 gameweeks; adding just 8 more over the next 29. Goalkeepers as a unit ranked 2nd overall in points (after Man City) but ranked just 16th in value for money ( P$ 0.621) Defenders were the best unit in the league with 683 points. Even with their high prices this still translated as the second best value around ( P$ 0.715 after only Fulham). At home the defensive unit was formidable, ...

I always start getting a bit nostalgic around this time of the year as reality sets in that the season is almost over and we have the long summer ahead. There are still a few weeks left though and this is an important week to negotiate with a large portion of fantasy studs involved in games against each other. The two big clashes makes for excellent TV viewing but they make fantasy lineups harder to set as players rarely have big games in the top of the table clashes. It is of course key to also remember that Spurs face the double gameweek in GW36 so be careful before you sell these assets this week due to their tough fixture. City are the other team with the double next week and given their good looking fixture this week (West Ham H) they look like solid investments right now. Clean Sheet Rankings (clean sheets kept at home or away / opponents failed to score at home or away in parenthesis) Liverpool (9 - 6) Man City (10 - 9) Blackburn (6 - 6) Birmingham (6 - 7) Chelsea (11...

Clean Sheet Rankings (clean sheets kept - opponents failed to score) Man City (7 - 4) Sunderland (7 - 2) Chelsea (7 - 2) Birmingham (4 - 5) Liverpool (4 - 3) Fulham (3 - 3) Stoke (3 - 3) Arsenal (3 - 1) Tottenham (3 - 2) Wigan (2 - 4) Bolton (0 - 3) West Brom (1 - 5) Blackpool (5 - 2) Everton (2 - 1) Man Utd (2 - 2) Newcastle (3 - 2) Aston Villa (0 - 4) Wolves (1 - 3) West Ham (3 - 2) Blackburn (0 - 1) Attacking Rankings Man City Arsenal Chelsea Birmingham Tottenham Stoke Sunderland Blackpool Fulham West Brom Man Utd Blackburn Bolton West Ham Wigan Everton Newcastle Aston Villa Liverpool Wolves Captain Stats I keep suggesting it could be a statistical anomaly but Van der Vaart continues to crush mid level teams (between 1 and 1.5 GPG conceded) for 9.57 PPG. Given that he is also averaging over 7 PPG at home and 8 PPG over his last 4 games, he remains an excellent option at home this week despite the tricky fixture on paper.  Despite th...

At time of posting I am working on the basis that all games will go ahead as planned this week, though at least the Blackpool-Liverpool game is already looking doubtful. More updates on this will of course come later in the week but I would recommend holding off on your transfers for now and definitely not paying 4 points for any moves until we are more certain who will actually play. Clean Sheet Rankings Fulham Man Utd Blackburn Wolves Blackpool Everton Aston Villa Birmingham Arsenal Man City Bolton West Ham  Wigan Stoke Chelsea Newcastle Tottenham Liverpool Sunderland West Brom Team Goals Bolton Man Utd Blackpool Aston Villa Man City Arsenal Blackburn Wolves Fulham West Brom Newcastle Chelsea Everton Tottenham Birmingham Liverpool Wigan Stoke Sunderland West Ham Team Goals (form adjusted) Bolton Man Utd Man City Blackpool West Brom Blackburn Everton Arsenal Tottenham Chelsea Liverpool Fulham Birmingham Newcastle Stoke A...

Clean Sheet Rankings Blackburn Liverpool Man City Birmingham West Brom Chelsea Sunderland Everton Wigan Arsenal Bolton Newcastle Aston Villa Fulham Blackpool West Ham Wolves Tottenham Man Utd Stoke  Team Goal Rankings Arsenal Chelsea Blackpool West Brom Blackburn Tottenham Liverpool Wigan Birmingham Sunderland Stoke Aston Villa Man City Bolton Man Utd Wolves Newcastle Everton Fulham West Ham Team Goals (form adjusted*) West Brom Tottenham Arsenal Blackburn Man City Blackpool Sunderland Chelsea Stoke Birmingham Bolton Man Utd Wigan Aston Villa Liverpool Wolves Newcastle Everton Fulham West Ham *This formula simply adds extra weight (33%) to the last 5 games rather than the whole season. I haven't tested whether this has proven to be more effective but it's at least worth a glance. Captain Stats The captain picks this week are pretty tough with Chelsea and Man Utd squaring off on Sunday. The pick of the stats are b...

Sorry for the delay again this week, some joker at my job has got it in his head that any of those pesky clients are worth more than fantasy football rankings. Has he seen my team? I haven't topped 50 points for five weeks. Five weeks! Hopefully the below will help: Clean Sheet Rankings Sunderland Chelsea Liverpool Blackburn Arsenal Birmingham Stoke Man City West Brom Bolton Tottenham Wigan Newcastle Wolves Everton Fulham West Ham Aston Villa Attacking rankings (team goals) Liverpool (2.67) Sunderland (1.87) Arsenal (1.76) Chelsea (1.76) Blackburn (1.66) West Brom (1.42) Stoke (1.36) Birmingham (1.25) Man City (1.14) Newcastle (0.93) Bolton (0.82) Wigan (0.78) Tottenham (0.74) Fulham (0.67) Aston Villa (0.44) Wolves (0.44) Everton (0.31) West Ham (0.30) Captain Stats Tevez - Tevez has strangely been a lot better away from Eastlands (7.43 PPG) than at home (4.86 PPG) but has been very useful against sides conceding more than 1.5 GPG (7.25...

No rambling this week as I've been moving home with boxes stacked high and much upheaval. This isn't unlike my fantasy team which is chaotic and unpredictable and might need a renovation of it's own very soon. I was saved last week by Vidic and Adam's performances but cruelly punished by last minute goals conceded by Williamson and Jaaskelainen. As you have hopefully noticed I am starting to re-design the site a bit to give everyone constant access to the stats I try and incorporate into my work. I have started with the aPPMS and aPoints to the right of this post and I will be adding short and long term strength of schedules soon. Any requests for specific data to be posted would be welcomed. Without further delay then, here are this week's rankings: Clean Sheet Rankings (expected goals conceded in parenthesis) Birmingham (0.28) Sunderland (0.38) Man Utd (0.40) Blackburn (0.60) Fulham (0.64) Arsenal (0.69) Chelsea (0.98) West Brom (1.02) Everton (1.0...

I'm in a dangerous position. I'm happy with my team but two back-to-back average weeks (which were an Alex wonder goal away from being poor) have me feeling antsy. It's like when you're sat in a good bar on a Saturday night. You're happy. The beer is good. And the atmosphere is decent. But, you can't help wonder what else is available. Sure you're gonna have fun, but is it going to memorable? I think my team if fine. But is is memorable? There has been talk on the boards of wildcards but I've decided that with Drogba, Berbatov, Nani, Alex being locks to stay put and the fact I'm happy with Vidic, Odenwingie and Adam, there doesn't seem to be much point wasting my wildcard too soon. Hence I am looking to reload rather than re-build my squad. The obvious (and likely) choice is to switch Koncheky out for Boateng who I am very high on . I could also bring Boateng in for one of my budget defenders given that I have 2.8m sat in the bank. However, I...

Clean Sheet Rankings  I am hesitant to try and over-engineer these rankings but it has always been my view when I read other fantasy sites that I'd prefer to have as much info as possible and then use my own judgement to decide what is best to rely on. Therefore, given that we are now 6 weeks in, I am going to include the rankings to reflect both the hybrid stats (based on last year's results and this years) as well as the rankings if you purely use this season's data. I have also included below some trends that need factoring into your decisions this week. Hybrid rankings (based on 2009/10 and 2010/11 seasons) Birmingham (0.51) + Tottenham (0.53) Liverpool (0.56) - Stoke (0.62) Man City (0.66) + West Ham (0.76) West Brom (0.78) Chelsea (0.79) Everton (0.91) + Wolves (1.11) Wigan (1.13) Man United (1.20) + Sunderland (1.31) Fulham (1.63) + Blackburn (1.67) + Aston Villa (2.00) Newcastle (2.13) Bolton (2.16) Arsenal (3.17) Blackpool (3.68) 2010/11 ran...

Clean Sheet Rankings I'm changing things a little but this week as along with the standard statistical predictions for goals conceded, I have also worked in some of the goal trends that I noted earlier in the week in order to generate my weekly rankings. I have looked for concrete trends based on statistical fact so these are not 'hunches' but more tweaked facts to incorporate the wider trends. Newcastle v Sto 0.34 Birmingham v Wig 0.44 Liverpool v Sun 0.43* Arsenal v WBA 0.50 Aston Villa @Wol 0.79* Man Utd @Bol 0.93* Fulham v Eve 0.71 Blackpool v Bla 0.77 Wolves v Ast 0.91 Chelsea @MnC 1.36 Man City v Che 1.47 Everton @Ful 1.48 Tottenham @WH 1.57 Wigan @Bir 1.93* West Ham v Tot 1.67 Stoke @New 1.81 Blackburn @Bll 1.82 Bolton v MnU 2.04 Sunderland @Liv 2.79 West Brom @Ars 4.17 *denotes a team whose ranking has been altered based on specific trend analysis noted below. I have capped these movements to 3 positions to avoid basing the rankings on ‘gut’ r...

Apologies but I am in my final week of traveling and so this week's preview is going to be a condensed version. I will however respond to all comments in the previous post to answer your questions and will try and get to anything posted below before Saturday. Injuries seem to be dominating the fantasy landscape at the moment with Valencia and Zamora the latest long term injuries. Modric will be back quicker than expected though this could be a double edged sword as the Spurs midfield remains a crowded place. As this is the time of year when we all need to start making changes I have included the mid-long term ranks of all players I discuss below to indicate if they are one week options or should be transfer targets. Clean Sheet Rankings Chelsea Man Utd Tottenham Blackburn Aston Villa Stoke Man City Everton WBA Sunderland Arsenal Fulham Wigan West Ham Birmingham Newcastle Liverpool Bolton Wolves Blackpool  Captain Rankings Didier Drogba Florent Malouda ...

This week's preview is going to be a bit condensed as my internet access has been limited while still on my travels. After the long rambling piece from GW2 was done I had enough time to throw together the below rankings which will hopefully help with lineup and transfer questions for the week: Clean Sheet Rankings Chelsea (0.27) Man United (0.36) Tottenham (0.40) Liverpool (0.55) Blackpool (0.63) Aston Villa (0.70) Wolves (0.79) Newcastle (0.81) Blackburn (1.13) Bolton (1.13) Sunderland (1.17) Arsenal (1.36) Fulham (1.44) Man City (1.48) Everton (1.61) Birmingham (1.63) West Brom (3.39) Stoke (3.73) West Ham (3.83) Wigan (4.03) Aside from the usual candidates, Blackpool stand out as a top pick for the week but I am cautious about this ranking due to the lack of data we have for them at home in the EPL. That said, Fulham were awful away last season (12 goals) and so Blackpool might just be worth a shot if you need a budget option this week. The top four picks...

The below is a bit late due to my lack of internet access. The GW3 preview will also be up shortly.  Seeing as these gameweek roundups invariably descend into random thoughts from the football world, I thought I would rename the segment as both a nod to the nature of my posts and to the greatest rock band of all time (see how even the introductions are now rambling . . . good luck to the reader!). This week is one in which my concise writing would be especially beneficial given the goals (38) and fantasy excitement of this past week. Without further ado then I will start with a few big performances that require our attention: Theo Walcott (7.1m) - I included Walcott in my ' under the radar' piece before the season started so while Walcott enjoying success is not a total surprise, the timing is much earlier than I expected. It is pleasing to see him flourish early in the season as this performance should buy him some patience for when he inevitably has one of those incon...

The pessimist in me is wondering where I go from here after a very successful first week in which my predictions did well and my team dominated to a three digit score . However, I am going to be positive and look to have another good week of predictions and hope to show that last week was no fluke (in reality it was probably was a fluke, as my countless failed predictions in the past show). One thing I didn't focus on last week, which I now wish I had, is the prediction tool I use to create my clean sheet rankings. Without getting too bogged down in Excel nonsense, the basic idea is to break down teams historic performance at home/away, against other teams and against certain types of team along with the corresponding data for their opponents. To get the historic data for the promoted sides I used a historic relationship between teams' performance in the EPL and the Championship to try and gross up/net down the expected goals conceded/scored. Anyway, the poin...