Expected goals plus-minus
As the season ticks on, we're starting to get a bit of data to work with, albeit sometimes in small samples. This season I am not working with a relatively complex player model but am really interested in trying to "play the fixtures" as much as I can. A couple of sources of frustration, therefore, have been as below: 1. Sites which provide the difficulty of fixtures often seem a bit simplistic. For example, the Premier League site shows Wolves as an average "3-rated" opponent, both at home and away yet the reality is more complicated. While at home they have been very solid defensively, with an Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) of just 4.71 in five games, which ranks third best, yet on their travels they have surrendered 7.94 xGC, which is the third worst . Even more confusing is that most sites ( though not all ) don't distinguish between attacking and defensive fixtures, so facing Leeds at home is presented as an easy "2-rated" fixture when in reali
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The forecast numbers can be gotten from a variety of places (I have my own c++ code giving me similar results, and FFS & InsideFPL both have fixture analysers).
So, on to my point...maybe you are busy with life, it happens! :)
But if not, I miss your personal analysis of the data (although you seem to not be fond of it yourself! :P ) and thoughts on captain choices, transfers, bandwagons, and everything else!
Hopefully there will be a return to regular programming soon. Keep up the great work! :)