As the season ticks on, we're starting to get a bit of data to work with, albeit sometimes in small samples. This season I am not working with a relatively complex player model but am really interested in trying to "play the fixtures" as much as I can. A couple of sources of frustration, therefore, have been as below: 1. Sites which provide the difficulty of fixtures often seem a bit simplistic. For example, the Premier League site shows Wolves as an average "3-rated" opponent, both at home and away yet the reality is more complicated. While at home they have been very solid defensively, with an Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) of just 4.71 in five games, which ranks third best, yet on their travels they have surrendered 7.94 xGC, which is the third worst . Even more confusing is that most sites ( though not all ) don't distinguish between attacking and defensive fixtures, so facing Leeds at home is presented as an easy "2-rated" fixture when in reali
Comments
RVP (c) over Walcott is what my instinct says, despite everything pointing to Walcott. Your captaincy rankings make me feel a lot better about it!
The bigger issue for me is 3 L'pool/Swan (Agger/Michu/Sturridge)with a blank and 3 other potential sitters - Shaw (still a yellow "i"), Wilkinson (probably dependent on Wilson's fitness) and Marveaux (starts only if Gouffran is still out). I had planned to drop Agger for sure for perhaps Santon or M.Dawson (or Walker). Was thinking 1 more move (and 4 point hit) might be useful to insure I have 11. Your numbers here suggest Lukaku or Tevez might be worth a shout for Sturridge but both come with the risk of not necessarily being nailed on. Wonder if others think a Sturridge swap-out is worth the 4 point hit. I tend to think Tevez will still come good over the rest of the season and sooner or later Clarke must realize what a beast Lukaku is. I've only taken 2 point hits all season, so I am leaning to 'small ball' again but I am chasing a 60 point lead in my minileague . . . any opinions out there ?