Gameweek 19 Preview

The last two weeks have illustrated the randomness of fantasy football, where even when you predict the outcome right, your team can wind up with no points. For example, as forecast, the two Manchester teams have kept two clean sheets over the past two gameweeks but despite owning P Jones, Richards and Evans, I've come out of it with zero clean sheets after Jones limped off and Richards was subbed after 59 minutes in GW17, then Jones and Richards missed out altogether and Evans was withdrawn at half time in GW18. The same can be said for Rooney owners who picked up just 8 points despite United scoring 10 goals over that same two week period. You calculated the odds right but the house still won.

This shouldn't have large repercussions on how you pick your team though. Rooney was an outstanding pick these past couple of weeks and deserved captain attention in both. Trying to predict when players kept rested for the odd game is a fools errand and unless we have strong evidence of a players' lack of fitness or an indication from the manager they will be dropped, it's better to start them and just roll with the punches when they are inevitably rested every now and then. Focusing too much on playing time will lead you off track and cause you to shy away from players like Dzeko or Sturridge, who have each been extremely valuable at different points of this season.

Expect more turnover this week, but take solace that if your players were rested last week, they should at least be back for this one (injuries aside):

Captain Picks
Once again the focus is on Manchester, though a couple of London teams are doing their best to make some noise of their own.

For United, it's all about the rested Rooney who has rediscovered his scoring touch of late and has hit the target more times than any other forward over the past four gameweeks (despite playing just half an hour last GW). Having gotten a short rest last week, Rooney looks locked in to play in this one and Blackburn look like just the kind of prey ripe for the picking. It doesn't get much better than this on paper so if you own Rooney, you're probably captaining him.

Rooney's teammate Nani is another solid pick though he's started the last eight gameweeks and may find himself in Ferguson's rotation cross hairs in the near future. Nani's value is hurt somewhat by his inconsistency, with 10 GWs of 3 points or less already this year. If he's your only United played and you're turned off the other options then he deserves consideration but that downside scares me off somewhat.

Though they face a trickier trip to Sunderland, City still provide a number of good options this week. You've got to be concerned by the fact that neither Aguero nor Silva have been rotated for a while, but as noted above, trying to second guess managers (particularly Mancini, is a risky business). It's worth noting that just four of Aguero's 13 goals have come on the road and he's managed just 11 points in his last four trips away from Manchester. FFS's ICT rankings backup this worrying trend and this damning fact would steer me away from Aguero until he can prove he can do it on the road.

Silva's road splits aren't quite as pronounced but he too has hit somewhat of a slump of late with three dud games over the last four. Until that run though, Silva had scored or assisted a goal in every game he had started bar one so let's not write him off just yet. Captaining him however does look like a stretch unless your United options reside on the defensive side of the ball.

A couple of down weeks have taken the gloss off Van Persie but his 8.4 P90 at home can only be beaten by Aguero (among regular starters), who of course finds himself on the road this week. QPR have really regressed after a solid start to the year defensively, conceding 15 in their last six road games.  His GW18 line may have disappointed but his underlying stats tell a different story with no less than eight shots, five of which were on target. Anything like that again here should ensure he returns better results for his owners and he remains a great captain pick this week.

Mata and Sturridge have a great fixture for the week but they still haven't really demonstrated an ability to consistently deliver big point hauls and Sturridge has actually been better on the road this year.  I like this pair to own over the next six weeks or so but the armband is a step too far unless you lack anyone in the above group or you think they will all be rested/rotated.

Ba and Bale are in great form and I wouldn't bench them against anyone but the stats say that Newcastle and Spurs will struggle for goals this week and thus they aren't captain material.