PLFantasy

As we all know, getting too bogged down in data analysis at this stage of this season can be dangerous, as the sample sizes on hand lead to one anomaly having a material impact on our conclusions (whether or not that changes after just 8-10 weeks is an argument for another day, but we can agree that three of four games isn't enough to make too many concrete claims). One factor, however, that is equally essentially to fantasy success that can be discussed now is playing time. Regular playing time at this stage of the season doesn't guarantee a future spot in the side, but it is indicative that a given player sits atop the depth chart at his position and is at least in a position of privilege for the coming weeks. One of the charts I included in the recently released e-book showed the defenders for every team for each week of the season, assigning them a status based on whether they were rotated by choice or unavailable for selection. The idea being, that we can deal with i...

I simultaneously love and hate writing posts at this time of year. On the plus side, there is so much happening with new transfer signings bedding into their respective teams, the promoted sides showing what they're made of and familiar faces emerging or fading as fantasy stars. With all that excitement though, comes the nagging issue of sample size, which needs to be trotted out with boring regularity during these early stages of the season. I don't think anyone reading these pages would be naive enough to assume that Liverpool have emerged as the best defensive unit of all time, yet to totally ignore their impressive start seems a bit too conservative in the other direction and might lead us to miss out on emerging trends. With this in mind, I'm going to have a very tentative peak at the shots created/conceded by each team compared with their 2012/13 totals and see if we can we start to spot any flags which need to be watched more closely in the coming weeks. Remember,...

I'm back on solid ground and back to reality so the blog will be getting back into full swing very soon. Over the last three weeks I haven't had much of an internet connection and didn't have a laptop, so it's going to take me a couple of days to get the data recorded and catch up with the latest news, but I hope to have a limited data set ready for GW4 and everything up and running by GW5. In reality, this is fine as two or three weeks of current year data isn't going to help us too much anyway, so the only real value I can offer in the early weeks is some rambling notes over who is starting and who isn't. The priority then is to get all the underlying data work done and then put together a bumper "lineup lessons" to discuss the new transfers and a couple of unexpected surprise names. Thanks for sticking with me through this quiet period and thanks again to everyone who bought the e-book.

So here's my excuse: the players listed in each team section within the team reviews are those with stats from last season. The players listed in the transfer section are all the new signings (per Transfermarkt ). Romelu Lukaku doesn't fit into either category (his data all relates to West Brom, of course) and thus I somehow excluded one of the most exciting prospects in the league from my eBook (I think I got everyone else though so check out the rest of the book if you want to see what I'm talking about). If I'd had a bit more sleep, and a few less wedding tasks to complete, here's what I would have written: Lukaku enjoyed a tremendous first real season in the Premier League, notching 17 goals and seven assists, supported by excellent underlying data including 97 total shots with an impressive 45 on target. These totals ranked 8th and 4th among all forwards respectively: excellent numbers for a player in a mid level team with a mid level price tag. What'...

A couple of readers on Twitter and here on the blog rightly suggested that a bit of a preview of the eBook might be useful for people to see if it's something they'd be interested in. With that in mind, here are a couple of screenshots of the kind of analysis you'll find in the eBook: 100 player profiles including expected goals, assists and points total from prior year (based on underlying data and regression). Includes a 'buy', 'consider', 'monitor' and 'avoid' status (Coutinho here is shown as a player to consider but one who carries at least one question mark: SImple data tells us how many games everyone played, but why did they miss the other games? The below chart provided for each defense shows which players were rotated by choice and which played whenever they were healthy: Forecast starting lineups for all 20 teams: Distribution of expected goals and assists by team: I hope these screenshots whet the c...

Welcome back everyone! Well, actually you've probably all been around a lot more than I have, so I guess it's me who's back. It's been a busy time for me personally (I got married on August 2nd!) and for the blog, as I've finally finished my proposed e-book season preview. It's something I've wanted to do for a couple of seasons but have finally managed to complete the project this year and, honestly, I'm delighted with how it turned out. It's 64 pages of content (all penned by yours truly) featuring: 100 individual player profiles and fantasy status (buy, sell, monitor etc) 17 full team previews including assessment of 2012-13 data, transfer analysis and forecast lineups Goalkeeper rotation data Forecast data for the first eight gameweeks of the season Brief analysis of every transfer, including fantasy status A review of the model in 2012-13 and how it will be improved this season. Now here's the awkward bit: there is a price tag...

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