Premier League Fantasy Football Blog

Season of Two Halves

2012-01-30T22:05:00.002Z

Season of two Halves - Second Half Sleepers
posted at Fantasy Football Scout (free content)

Playing the market

2012-01-29T07:05:00.000Z

I've had a few questions of late about making transfers with the intention of making money, and the potential rewards this can have. Unfortunately I haven't uncovered any new secret so this post is going to be a bit unscientific, but it will hopefully give some general pointers (and warnings) about how to play the transfer game.

Being first to market
The easiest, and most effective, way to make money is to identify a player who isn't widely held, sign him, and then have him succeed, preferably in a very evident way via a double digit point game or two (consistent 6 point games aren't as effective). For example, after nine gameweeks Gareth Bale had largely been a fantasy disappointment. He had just 26 points (2.88 P90) with 10 of those points coming in one game against Wigan. At that point, if you bought into Bale (7.9m) you would have seen his price rise 0.5m in just four gameweeks and 1.0m after six. By GW21 his price had risen by a full 1.5m. That's great if you bought at precisely the right time, but if you knew how to do that every time you wouldn't be reading this blog.

Being first to market means you need to act quickly, and in my experience, this will more often that not lead to decisions which lose you points. A few other examples of acting early this season:

78k managers signed De Laet after his goal in GW2. He earned 5 points in four subsequent appearances before being sent back to his parent club.
After goals in both of the first two games of the season, 83k managers jumped all over Shane Long, who has averaged 3.1 points per game ever since.
77k managers have signed Gary Cahill, who is yet to set foot on the field in a Chelsea shirt, and is by no means guaranteed a starting place
130k managers bought Leon Best in GW6-7 and he's scored 1 goal and 32 points since
After a couple of good weeks in GW6-7, another 130k managers signed Ramsey who has topped 3 points twice in 14 appearances ever since

Granted, these are a cherry picked list of bad ideas but the point is that these kind of decisions can go horribly wrong and will often cost you points, while playing it a bit safer, and checking underlying data before making moves will often cost you money.

The popular vote

As explained by the good folks at Crack the Code, price rises are based on net transfers in for a given week. That means to earn more money you need to be signing the same players as the masses. Sometimes this will obviously be a wise move (such as the aforementioned period of success for Bale), but often the general public will simply be overreacting to a single gameweek and not basing their decision on logic. Making that transfer too may well net you an increase in money but that won't in itself give you any more points.

A large portion of the content on this site works with trying to spot differential players, so signing popular players is somewhat counter intuitive to this strategy.

Time value of money

We'd all like more money, in the game, and I'm sure in real life too. But as in real life, the marginal value of each million earned decreases as you get richer and richer (what would you do with a million pounds/dollars/euros versus what would Warren Buffett do?) My team value is currently around 104m, with the growth generated through chasing points rather than value. Right now that can essentially buy the current dream team to date if I am willing to make a couple of minor concessions and accept a budget bench.

That means that the extra ~3m advantage that some teams enjoy is really only buying them a better bench. That's great if you can get it, and they will certainly enjoy an advantage over my team and may likely finish the season with more points. However, there are a heck of a lot of other teams who took the risks required to earn that extra money who have a lot of cash but find themselves too far behind in points to catch up, now that teams have converged and become very similar.

It takes 20+ gameweeks (at least) to earn enough money to have a noticeable difference, which of course means you only enjoy an advantage for half a season at best. I'm not sure how many points a better bench will generate over half a season but until I do some better research I'm not convinced it's enough to warrant changing the way we operate in the early part of the season (try to identify value based on player's underlying data and avoid needless risks).

Gameweek 23 Captain Rankings

2012-01-27T03:28:00.000Z

P90 Points per 90 minutes at home/away based on the player's fixture QG Number of quality games for the season (6 or more points) BG Number of bad games for the season (3 points or less) % Percentage of team goals scored or assisted SD Standard deviation of player scores (risk) Rating Percentage of team goals accounted for multiplied by expected team goals for the week.

A couple of readers last week said it might be helpful to get a bit of context for the above stats, so below are a few of highlights for the week:

Everything points to Van Persie for the week, so while I generally stress that the 'Rating' column is not a pure ranking, he would indeed be my number one pick this week. No one can match his combination of upside and consistency. Given the home fixtures enjoyed by Spurs and Man Utd it's rare I will categorically take a road team but Bolton aren't much better at home than they are away, making Van Persie a very good play this week.

Rooney will gain a lot of attention this week, and rightly so, though I'm slightly troubled by his recent performances. His home P90 is very impressive (7.3) but if you look at just the last six games at Old Trafford that number drops to just 5.0, largely due to the removal of his massive GW3 haul. Now I don't want to play around with numbers too much just to fit the narrative but he has clearly struggled for consistency (with his production if not his underlying performance stats which remain strong). Given my suspicion regarding 'form', I'd suggest Ronney is a regression candidate and should start taking his chances more frequently going forward, but I'm not sure I'd be willing to bet my captain's armband on it. For the record, I love Valencia as an asset to own but I'm not sure I'm ready to throw him too much captain consideration just yet.

It's rare that the City boys aren't considered great plays in a given week but their trip to Everton is tricky compared to some of the other fixtures around this week and they go into the game in dangerous, but inconsistent, form. Aguero is the obvious pick but with Balotelli out, Dzeko is looking like a very interesting option, especially if you put any stock in his home performances to date (small sample size alert!). Silva's main appeal is his consistency, as evidenced by his SD of 3.4. None of the other elite options have a floor as high as Silva, who seems to notch at least some points every time he takes the field (his 7 BG in 22 appearances is also the best mark among elite options). There's an argument to be made for always captaining a player of Aguero's quality but if you're following the stats, it's likely you'll have a better option available this week.

Adebayor, Van der Vaart and particularly Bale will get a lot of attention this week too, and with Wigan coming to town the optimism is well placed. Spurs' fixture is comparable to Arsenal's, arguably a touch better given that teams tend to hit their potential more at home than on the road. The problem is that the Spurs trio are all aiming for a piece of the same pie. All three have managed their fair share of quality games this year, and one of them has managed a QG in every game for Spurs bar three. The problem is that only six games have seen two of them notch 6 or more points and this hasn't happened since GW12. By captaining one from this group then, you are really taking an educated guess as to which of the trio will enjoy the success this week. It may seem obvious that it would be Bale but don't forget that both Adebayor (GW11-18) and Van der Vaart (GW6-10) have both enjoyed their own spell of fantasy dominance this year. Of the three I would take the safe play with Bale, but I am actually considering an official 'recommend' stamp for Van der Vaart for the next few weeks, who essentially brings everything Bale does, along with an increased threat from set pieces.

Dempsey is sure to get a look from many this week after his hattrick last week, and while I don't put much stock in prior results, his performances of late have screamed of a player ready to start scoring plenty of goals. Fulham's ceiling as a team will never be able to match the big boys so you're hoping Dempsey's increased importance in that team equalises that fact. Those 12 BGs terrify me and were the main reason I passed on him as captain last week. That said, if you look at how Dempsey has done against weaker opponents at home, the results have generally been very good so there is at least some basis for believing he will notch one of those 8-10 point games. Risky, but I see the logic.

The pleasing thing about the 'rating' category this week is that it is throwing up a good mix of familiar and obvious names, along with a couple of wildcards who people may not be thinking too much about. Bellamy and Zamora have been extremely successful when they've played this year and both should get another chance for success this week. You have to caution against the very small sample size these numbers are based on, but they've taken their chances so far so you wouldn't be amazed to see at least a large portion of this success continue. I'd still probably rate both as third forwards though, unless you decide to go huge in midfield. They are only captain options if you're starting to get desperate to start making ground with opponents whose team is largely similar to yours.

Transfer Clinic

2012-01-26T05:55:00.000Z

With the new rankings tables doing a lot of the legwork, and with no games this weekend, I've got some extra time for a post, and with no ideas immediately springing to mind, I thought I should use the time to catch up on some reader questions.

As it's wildcard season I am just looking at team reviews here (whether wildcard or not) which will hopefully allow me to cover off all the players I like/don't like for the remainder of the year.

Wildcard

Reader: Ramzy
Proposed team: Mignolet, Vorm : BAE, Richards, Simpson, Evans, Kelly : Silva, Valencia, Dempsey, Sessegnon, Bale : Aguero, RVP, Helguson

I love the entire defence and I'm not sure I'd do anything different. If I did I'd say that I'm not crazy about the Newcastle defence for the short term, so I might look at Brown or N Taylor for the next few weeks. As I mentioned in an earlier post, it's important to consider what your next couple of transfers will be and given the rest of your team looks like every week starters, you can afford to grab a couple of short term plays if you need to.

The midfield and front line is about as good as you can get on paper which is good, but also the source of my concern. I won't go over the numbers here, but in the next post at Fantasy Football Scout I look at the best team from last year and see how they did in the second half of the season (clue: not good). That isn't to say some of these guys won't have success but you do worry about that midfield all having great second halves.

One way to free up cash would be to switch Aguero to Dzeko, who looks set to play every week in Balotelli's absence, allowing you to upgrade the defence or turn Helguson into someone from the Sturridge/Ba/Cisse/Bellamy group. It's hard to say specifically which of the midfielders I doubt as they all look great, but I'd be remiss if I didn't caution against simply picking the top scorers to date. That FFS scout includes a list of sleepers who you might want to consider, but I love your team so I wouldn't change much.

Reader: Snorre
Proposed team: Lindegaard, Hennessey : Walker, N Taylor, Kelly, Enrique, R Taylor : McClean, Mata, Silva, Dempsey, Dyer : Morison, Aguero, Torres

This is the other direction you can go with your wildcard. Mata and Torres are obviously two of the more talented players in the league but neither have really lived up to the hype this year (particularly not Torres). I'd say it's a risk going with two Chelsea players though they do have some great fixtures starting in GW26 with Bolton.

I have always liked Assou Ekotto over Walker, but now his ownership is way up and the pair's prices have converged, I like the move to grab Walker here. I feel he's the better attacking option and the 0.3m might be worth it to differentiate your team. Though I think he'll probably play in the long run, R Taylor is a risk at 5.4m and given he is so widely owned, I'd prefer to have the 1.0m and go with Simpson. That said, I'm not sure where you'd use the 1.0m saved as I like your budget options of McClean and Kelly.

One option would be to look at grabbing Zamora over Morison with any saved money. Zamora isn't getting much hype but his performances this year have been superb and it's only a lack of playing time that has slowed him down. He was excellent against Newcastle and you like the way he contributes assists as well as goals to keep his fantasy points ticking along. The other option of course would be S Fletcher who I've been all over for a while now.

Overall I like the team and the risks you've taken though I'd be nervous about going with two big Chelsea players given their immediate fixtures (@Swa, MnU, @Eve). Maybe you want them long term but it might be prudent to go with a Spurs or United player for the week to take advantage of their fixture, before grabbing your Chelsea boys later on.

Reader: NSJ91
Proposed team: Lindegaard, Sorensen : Clichy, Evans, King, Brown, Kelly : Silva, Nani, Bale, Sessegnon, Moses : RVP, Aguero, Helguson

You've taken a couple of risks here in defence, but I like the idea behind both. For me, Kolarov has been really poor this year so Clichy should be locked into to play as much as most in this side and thus he's nice value at 0.9m less than Kompany and 0.7m less than Richards. Head to head I still take Richards but in terms of value I like the former Arsenal man a lot. King is more risky but again you're saving close to a million and given that you don't really have any gaps I like the risk. King started ahead of Dawson this week so you have to think he's still the first choice centre back, though my worry would be that he plays in the big (read: hard) games and thus his points may be lower than his teammates.

The issue with the midfield and front line is the same as Ramzy above. Also, it looks like Nani's injury may be serious and he could miss 6-8 weeks (h/t Jay Horrey for that one). For starters then I would switch him out for Valencia if you want to keep with a United theme. After that, it's the same advice as above. I love the team on paper but you have to mindful that the chance of the top five midfielders today ending the year in the same spots in slim.

General transfer questions (no wildcard remaining)

Reader: Vicky
Current team: Stockdale, Vorm : Skrtel, Richards, Kelly, N Taylor, Shotton : Sessegnon, Bale, Valencia, Dempsey, Moses : RvP, Aguero, Sturridge..

You're in great shape here as you have two free transfers and no real holes to fill. As with the teams above, I think your issue is going to be the fact that your team is probably very similar to many others and thus you're going to struggle to make ground on your competitors. If you're out in front of course then you're in a strong defensive position.

Check out the upcoming FFS article for some sleeper ideas but a couple of names I'd throw out there are Dzeko (in place of Aguero), Mata, Van der Vaart (over Bale) or maybe even a total wildcard like a Cisse or Sigurdsson.

Reader: JayDavies
Current team: Vorm, Bogdan, Kelly, Cahill, Evans, Hanley, De Laet, Valencia, Silva, Bale, Sessegnon, Ferguson, Rooney, Torres, Van Persie

The issue you have here is squad depth. Hanley, De Laet and Ferguson may be cheap but they give you no wiggle room when your starters miss out (such as Cahill this past gameweek). I would personally take a downgrade at forward, say Torres to Dzeko, and use that money to grab defenders like N Taylor or W Brown. I like the idea of taking a shot with Torres, but as I said above, I would go with Rooney now and then take another look at the Chelsea boys when the fixtures ease up a bit.

You also have a potential problem between the sticks as Jaaskelainen could return this week or next thus leaving you with just one 'keeper. The good news is that Vorm is a good play for the next few weeks so that isn't a priority move.

Given that you have two transfers, I would move Torres to Dzeko to free up cash (2.0m) and use that to upgrade your defence, targeting De Laet first who is an afterthought in Norwich. There are plenty of good long term options who also have a good fixture this week including Brown, N Taylor or a more expensive play like Assou Ekotto. Of that group I would take Brown which will only cost you 0.7m and give you sufficient cash to upgrade elsewhere later on.

Long term the same caveats about holding all the popular successful assets like Silva, Bale and Sessegnon apply but I wouldn't be rushed to dump any of that group for now.

Reader: WS
Current team: Mignolet, Sorensen : Simpson, Kelly, Enrique, Caulker, Shawcross : Bale, Sessegnon, Silva, McClean, Dyer : Van Persie, Rooney, Aguero

As you want a team for GW23 only, I might try and pickup a different defender as you don't have the best fixtures with your current crop. Shawcross would be the obvious candidate and at 5.1m he gives you flexibility to grab someone else who can help you this week. If you can stretch to Assou Ekotto he is a safe pick with upside, or you could take a risk that King is fit again to play. If not then I would go with Evans who gets a very nice fixture and is almost assured to play with all United's injuries.

Reader: Mulligan
Current team: Lindegard, Vorm : Brown, BAE, Enrique, Richards, Simpson : Bale, Silva, Dempsey, Sessegnon, Dyer : RVP, Ageuro, Helguson

Similar comments here to the above teams. It looks great on paper and you will certainly be competitive but you have to worried about a lack of differentiation.

Overall comments
The astute reader will probably point to my team and realise I too lack differentiators apart from Murphy and Flecther. And that's why none of the above points are criticisms. It's really hard to pick sleepers at this point in the year when you a list of players you are factually good (or at least have been so far). Picking the players who are widely owned might ensure you don't lose too much ground, but you'll also struggle to gain much.

Check out the (free) article at Fantasy Football Scout (due this week) which outlines a few sleeper ideas. Once that's up I'll also address some of those thoughts here, along with some research I'm currently looking at as to which players managed to deliver solid second half production last season after a successful good half to see if there are any trends we can exploit.

Thanks for the comments on the new graphs, please keep the feedback coming and let me know if there's any stats that would be useful for people. I understand they don't work on the mobile version which is a shame, so in the meantime I will disable that version and anyone using a smartphone should then be able to view the full site (and hopefully the graphs, though I'm not sure which plug ins are required). Long term I hope to migrate the blog to a full domain which will hopefully sort some of these issues out.

Gameweek 23 Preview

2012-01-24T15:01:00.000Z

Don't forget that there are no games this weekend with the next deadline coming next Tuesday for a full midweek slate. That gives us a couple of days so hopefully I'll have a couple of extra pieces up this week. Weekly rankings are below.

CS Clean sheets kept at home/away based on this week's fixture Opp FTS Number of times this week's opponent has failed to score at home/away GPG Conceded Predicted goals conceded this week based on a team and their opponent's performance this season Opp CS Clean sheets kept at home/away by a team's opponent GPG Scored Predicted goals scored this week based on a team and their opponent's performance this season

Pure Juice Wildcard

2012-01-23T06:14:00.000Z

I played my wildcard this week and a few readers on Twitter asked where I finally landed. Here's the new team and the rough thought process behind each player.

Goalkeepers
Vorm kept his place and is almost undroppable at this point as (a) he's awesome and is one of the best value players in the game and (b) it'll cost me 0.6m to get him back if I sell him. Barring injury he's on board until at least GW36 (his last two game are tough so if I'm desperate for GK health I could ditch him).

I almost went with Lindegaard, and may well land there long term but decided that at least in the short term, Mignolet was the better pick. Even after this week's clean sheet, Sunderland still get Nor (H), Sto (A) and WB(A) in the next four weeks so Mignolet should prove to be a nice mid-term option.

Defence
I stuck with Jose Enrique, Richards and Assou Ekotto as I couldn't find too many premium options to warrant the loss of money I'd suffer ditching any of the above. That said, I don't think either Enrique or Richards are now undroppable and can see the argument behind ditching either. If the fixtures had fallen more favourably for Man Utd, I may well have dropped one of the pair for Evans to free up cash to use elsewhere. Cahill was also a consideration but it seemed premature to grab him before (a) he's played a game and (b) we're sure Chelsea are going to get any better at the back (ironically they went and kept a clean sheet without him).

The new arrivals were Bardsley and Kelly, though the former would have been Brown if I was more certain he would play. I will likely make that move next time I have a spare transfer to use. As mentioned above for Mignolet, Sunderland are a great medium term play and while I'm a bit nervous to double up, I figure I will often be playing Vorm anyway. It's going to be rare that I play five defenders so I wanted a budget option here with Simpson and Evans getting strong consideration. I held off on Evans due to United's tough couple of upcoming fixtures but will probably go there long term. Similarly with Simpson, I didn't see enough value there to warrant grabbing him when the upcoming games were so tough. I'm not crazy about Fulham's defence but Kelly is a decent fifth option who might get the odd game.

Midfield
Silva was the only holdover here and I envision him holding a first team place all season. He brings an almost unrivaled combination of upside and consistency and I wouldn't consider dropping him, no matter who the opponent.

This was the area I struggled most with as I had two objectives (1) try and avoid chasing points and (2) save enough cash so I can afford whichever two forwards I want. All things considered I decided that Bale was the midfielder I wanted most after Silva, but given his tough fixture this week (there's no way he scores against City, right?) I wanted a different one week option, with the intention of swapping him out for Bale next week. With Van der Vaart and Nani facing relatively tough opponents, the only man I really considered for that role was Dempsey.

[I think there's an important point to emphasize here. Generally people make one of a couple of mistakes when wildcarding. One, they overly gear their team towards the short term, loading up on players with one or two good games or with short term playing opportunities, thus requiring multiple transfers in the near future. Or, two, they setup their team purely looking to the future and then get to next week with no use for their free transfer. The best method for me is to set your overall team, then find someone who has a bad fixture this week and replace him with a one week 'loan' to be dumped next week. Just make sure you have sufficient room in your budget to cover any price rises].

The American obviously proved to be a good pickup and with him getting West Brom at home next week, and Bale getting Wigan, I now have another tough decision to make which I didn't plan for (a good problem to have though). A lot of managers were all over Sessegnon and Walters but for me the decision in that ~6.5m range wasn't close. Sessegnon's underlying stats are much more impressive and I feel he has a much better chance of matching his first half success than Walters does. I like Sinclair too thanks to the set pieces but Swansea's midfield looks crowded and half the teams in the league still haven't yet won 4 pens, so it's tough to see him matching that total again in the second half.

That left me ~10.5m to fill my final two midfield spots so I had to decide whether to go with a couple of 5 million guys or 4.5 - 6 combo. I opted for the latter based on the fact that I knew I'd play my forwards almost every week and was happy with my defence, thus meaning I only needed four reliable mids (and could therefore go super cheap with one of the picks). I struggled with both picks, looking at the likes of Ben Arfa, Pilkington, Henderson, Drenthe, McLean and a host of Swansea players before settling on Murphy and Surman. Murphy was the pick due to his set piece duties and relative consistency (7 games with 5 or more points this year) while I like Surman's recent underlying stats, most notably his key passes. Aside from the aforementioned potential Bale move, this is the area of the team I am least satisfied with and I would imagine I'll use a couple of transfers in this area over the coming weeks.

Forwards
No need to talk about Van Persie who was always going to hold his place. Long term I will probably target Ba, but in his absence I love Fletcher who is cheap enough to let me grab another elite option. With Chelsea looking fairly average I decided Sturridge wasn't worth the extra outlay so Fletch got the call. That left a final decision of Rooney or Aguero. Again, long term I might go for Ade (so I can keep Bale and Dempsey in midfield) but with him out and for the week I didn't want a ~10m asset sat on the bench as soon as I played the wildcard so he was out of contention. Rooney and Aguero have both gone quiet in the past couple of weeks but I'm sure both will be fine and found it hard to find anything to distinguish them. In the end then, it was simply a case of value for money, and it's tough to argue that Rooney is 1m better. Given my team isn't particularly valuable, I can't afford to waste cash and thus Aguero got the call (I then captained him which was the only real downer on a good first week with the new team).

It was a good start this week but I'm a bit concerned that I haven't gotten enough differentiation in the team and will probably end up using my other wildcard sooner rather than later (aiming for GW30). With the elite options dominating it's tough to not try and grab as many of them as possible, which then limits what you can do elsewhere. We'll see how things pan out in the coming weeks, but at least so far, I'm ahead of where I was.

Lineup Lessons Gameweek 22

2012-01-22T03:02:00.000Z

Arsenal
Szczesny, Djourou, Mertesacker, Vermaelen, Koscielny, Rosicky, Song, Ramsey, Walcott, van Persie, Oxlade-Chamberlain
Subs: Almunia, Park, Squillaci, Arshavin, Benayoun, Miquel, Yennaris.

It was a pleasant surprise to see Oxlade-Chamberlain in their starting lineup given the recent struggles of Arshavin. He didn't disappoint either, impressing with his movement, composure and football IQ (sorry, Theo) which led to a good assist for Van Persie's goal. We're always looking for fantasy value in this Arsenal team and at 5.7m Ox has some makings of that very player. However, this was his first league start and only his third appearance so be careful not to get carried away here. Maybe Wenger decides to throw him out there for the rest of the season (he can't be much worse than Arshavin and Walcott have been at times this year) but it's too risky to make that leap right now. I want to say more, but there just isn't much else of interest in this lineup.

Aston Villa
Given, Hutton, Clark, Collins, Dunne, Albrighton, Petrov, Gardner, Bent, Agbonlahor, Keane
Subs: Guzan, Warnock, Cuellar, Baker, Bannan, Delfouneso, Weimann

Warnock was a surprise omission here though he did come on at half time and one would expect he'll stay in this side long term. Whether or not the Villains provide any defensive value is another question though.

Strangely, Villa have score three goals in each of their last two road games but struggled at home against Swansea and Everton. Keane is intriguing to say the least given his price tag, but I would issue some caution over a player who converted his only two shots on target into goals. He has shown an eye for goal in the past of course, but I'd like to see Villa generate more chances for him before jumping on board. Bent is interesting as a differentiator but for me he's too expensive given that he doesn't contribute anything outside of goals (and the bonus points that come with them).

Blackburn
Robinson, Lowe, Dann, Givet, Olsson, Nzonzi, Hoilett, Petrovic, Dunn, Pedersen, Goodwillie
Subs: Bunn, Modeste, Formica, Rochina, Vukcevic, Hanley, Henley.

This lineup is becoming more predictable but in terms of points concentration, there is little to get excited about with Yakubu missing. The results have improved of late but they still don't look like a side who are going to keep clean sheets and the goals are spread thin across a number of overpriced options.

Bolton
Bogdan, Steinsson, Knight, Wheater, Ricketts, Eagles, Reo-Coker, Muamba, Petrov, M Davies, Ngog
Subs: Lynch, Sanli, K Davies, Pratley, Boyata, O'Halloran, Riley.

Three goals from unlikely sources don't add much to this team's fantasy fortunes, who look a lot like their northern rivals Blackburn. N'Gog has looked pretty useful since breaking into the side and is worth monitoring but it's tough to see him overtaking the likes of Helguson, Graham or Morison in that budget category. Coyle seems to be more committed to the 4-5-1 now which should allow Eagles to play more often (he was sometimes exposed in a 4-4-2) and his nice assist this week shows he has some talent. I'm not sure I see much in him that you can't get elsewhere (Ben Arfa, Moses, Dyer, Morrison) but he deserves consideration alongside that group.

Chelsea
Cech, Bosingwa, Luiz, Terry, Cole, Ramires, Lampard, Meireles, Sturridge, Torres, Mata.
Subs: Turnbull, Ivanovic, Essien, Romeu, Malouda, Lukaku, Bertrand.

A few people jumped on Cahill early and I thought he had an outside chance to play here. Villas-Boas said after the game that he had some "team principles" to learn though that begs the question when Luiz will be taught those same principles. Assuming Cahill takes over at centre back he will be good value but with a clean sheet here, you have to be cautious about how soon that move will happen. Torres had chances again here and everything suggests he is a sleeper candidate (talent, bad luck, good support players) but yet he just looks devoid of confidence and hopeful, rather than confident, that the net will bulge. If you're in a deep hole he deserves brief consideration but I'd suggest it's a needless risk at this point. Essien will likely crack the first team very soon and that should have a positive impact on the team, though I'm not sure it's going to catapult this team's fortunes to the point where you're ready to spend big money on the available assets. If a team ever needed a quality January signing it's this one.

Everton
Howard, Neville, Duffy, Heitinga, Baines, Donovan, Gibson, Fellaini, Anichebe, Cahill, Saha
Subs: Mucha, Hibbert, Bilyaletdinov, Drenthe, Stracqualursi, Gueye, Vellios.

Blackburn at home is one of the better fixtures a team can have, but as reflected in this week's rankings (Everton were 10th) the Toffees just aren't that good at the back. The goal, of course, was unlucky but Blackburn were probably good value for their point with Everton playing fairly uninspired stuff all day. Donovan looked pretty good and warrants ownership, but I'm somewhat concerned by the lack of goal scoring opportunities he receives. Good, but not outstanding value at 7.0m. I want to be able to recommend Drenthe who has been impressive during most of his cameos but his defensive weakness seems to be keeping him out of the side and he is too pricey to play so sporadically.

Fulham
Stockdale, Kelly, Hangeland, Senderos, JA Riise, Ruiz, Murphy, Sidwell, Duff, Dempsey, Zamora
Subs: Etheridge, Baird, Johnson, Gecov, Hughes, Frei, Briggs.

After his first goal I asked on Twitter why no 'big' team has ever been in for Dempsey and no one really had an answer. I am not encouraging the move (I hate it when the rich teams unimaginatively steal all the middle teams' talent) but with the inevitable decline of Gerrard and Lampard, is there a better goalscoring midfielder around in the league? His first goal showed the instincts (and luck) of a number 9, while his third simply showed a player utterly convinced he was going to score (the anti-Torres so to speak). A full write up on my wildcard team is to come, but I'll be honest, I brought Dempsey in as a one week hire, due to be replaced next week by Bale. I've got a tough decision to make this week now though.

I thought Johnson was excellent off the bench but probably won't get enough minutes to warrant ownership while Zamora also looked good but is priced in a tough spot between the budget options in the ~5m range and the classier group (Ba, Sturridge, Dzeko). Probably not enough upside to justify his 6.6m tag.

Liverpool
Reina, Johnson, Skrtel, Agger, Jose Enrique, Maxi, Henderson, Adam, Bellamy, Gerrard, Carroll
Subs: Doni, Coates, Kuyt, Downing, Carragher, Shelvey, Kelly.

This team has talent, but I'm not sure it's enough to overcome the premium those players come with due to the badge on their shirt. The defense was pretty awful against Bolton and while I still like them at the right price, even if you have Enrique at 5.5m I don't think he is undroppable. The next three gameweeks don't project to be great for this defense and it might be time to look elsewhere if you're wildcarding this week. Bellamy was fancied by many this week and rewarded their faith with a well taken goal, giving him four goals in his last three starts. If you're wildcarding he is worth a look, as you can then move him on in four weeks when Suarez returns, but I'm not sure I'd spend two transfers on him given their opponents over that time (Wol, Tot, MnU, Eve).

Man City
Hart, Richards, Savic, Lescott, Clichy, Barry, Milner, Silva, Aguero, Nasri, Dzeko
Subs: Pantilimon, Zabaleta, Johnson, Kolarov, Onuoha, De Jong, Balotelli.

No real surprises here. City are prone to poor defensive days (especially without Kompany) but we can chalk this one up to the quality of the opposition rather than any significant concerns for Richards and company. They remain an elite group of defenders to hold. Silva continues to chip away with good scores with his production finding a great combination of consistency and upside. One goal in five games for Aguero makes one a touch nervous and his lack of chances today compounds that concern. Van Persie remains in a league of his own right now but Aguero is still right there behind him, you just need to decide if he's worth the money required to get him over Adebayor, Ba or Dzeko.

Man Utd
Lindegaard, Jones, Smalling, Evans, Evra, Valencia, Carrick, Giggs, Nani, Rooney, Welbeck.
Subs: De Gea, Berbatov, Park, Hernandez, Fabio, Rafael, Scholes.

Most sources had Rafael starting at right back but I think they continue to underestimate Ferguson's confidence in Evans. Even before the injury to Jones I would suggest Evans was in line to play most games for the remainder of the year. With so many injuries this may not be a truly elite defense but Evans and Lindegaard are obviously good value when they play and are worth a spot in your squad if you're confident in your other options. With the way he's playing Valencia has overtaken Nani as the best value midfielder in this side and Nani owners should consider how they could use that couple of million elsewhere in their team. Like Aguero, Rooney has been kept quiet in recent weeks and actually failed to register a shot on goal this week. However, the notion of 'form' is flawed and he is playing well enough to deserve consideration for any fantasy side. A home game with Stoke looks like a good way to cure those blues. Many will be tempted by Welbeck but I still think Hernandez has a big part to play in this side and at 6.6m Welbeck is too pricey to have him sit every other week, even if he's great value when he plays.

Newcastle
Krul, Simpson, Williamson, Coloccini, Santon, Ben Arfa, Guthrie, Cabaye, Gutierrez, Best, Ameobi
Subs: Elliot, Lovenkrands, Perch, Gosling, R Taylor, Obertan, Ferguson.

Who knows what to make of this defense? They aren't without value but the last four road games have seen them concede 5, 3, 0 and 4 and they were all over the place again this week. The decision to keep Santon in the side over R Taylor seems curious as he hasn't done much to impress since breaking into the side and was left wanting again against Fulham. I'd still be happy holding Simpson, Williamson or Taylor but they aren't every week starters anymore so you need sufficient depth and rotation options to accompany them. Going forward I like Ben Arfa as the pick of the bunch here and rate him as a good 4th or great 5th midfielder.

Norwich
Ruddy, Martin, Whitbread, Ayala, Naughton, Fox, Johnson, Pilkington, Surman, Morison, Holt
Subs: Steer, Drury, Crofts, Jackson, Hoolahan, Bennett, Wilbraham.

Don't get overly excited about this defense, who conceded 19 shots and were bailed out by the good form of Ruddy and the poor finishing of Torres and co. I was surprised to see Ruddy had an ownership of 12% and with several cheap options available, I don't understand the logic behind owning him, or any of the Norwich defense for that matter. This midfield has some talent but I wouldn't rate them as highly as the Swansea group. The next games are pretty favourable though so the likes of Pilkington or Surman are intriguing options.

QPR
Kenny, Young, Hall, Ferdinand, Hill, Mackie, Buzsaky, Barton, Wright-Phillips, Helguson, Campbell.
Subs: Cerny, Orr, Derry, Bothroyd, Smith, Ramage, Macheda.

Helguson continued his good form, and it could have been better but for Al-Habsi's heroics from the spot once again. He makes an excellent 3rd forward, adding four more shots this week to accompany his penalty duties. I wouldn't put him alongside Fletcher but he's atop that group of ~5.5m or cheaper players. I don't see much else here to hold our interest.

Stoke
Sorensen, Woodgate, Shawcross, Huth, Wilson, Shotton, Whelan, Delap, Etherington, Walters, Crouch
Subs: Begovic, Jones, Fuller, Pennant, Whitehead, Wilkinson, Jerome.

Along with Liverpoool, Stoke's defense was a huge disappointment this week and you wonder if they will ever become a reliable unit again this year. Given that Shawcross and Huth are priced above those available elsewhere, the oft-injured Woodgate looks like the best value option, but he too carries significant risk of his own. I'm not crazy about Walters anyway and the potential loss of penalty duties further hurts his value. I would advise his owners to start making alternative plans.

Sunderland
Mignolet, Bardsley, O'Shea, Brown, Richardson, Larsson, Cattermole, Vaughan, McClean, Bendtner, Sessegnon
Subs: Westwood, Turner, Gardner, Wickham, Ji, Meyler, Elmohamady.

Unlike Walters, I think Sessegnon is for real, though I'm still a bit concerned that his current goal/shot conversion rate is unsustainably high. He's probably the best player in this team though and anytime you can get that for a good price you have to be interested. McClean has really caught the eye since breaking into the first team and looks like one of the best sub-5.0m options around. Don't expect him to continue his 6.0 P90 for much longer but he should definitely warrant spot starting when your other options face tough games.

Sunderland have only conceded more than a single goal twice in their last eight games, adding two clean sheets in the last five weeks. Only one game (GW25 - Arsenal H) registers as a tough game in the eight week forecast, making this one of my favourite defenses to buy into. Mignolet and a fit again Brown look like the best ways to make that happen.

Swansea
Vorm, Rangel, Caulker, Williams, Taylor, Dyer, Britton, Sinclair, Allen, Sigurdsson, Graham
Subs: Tremmel, Routledge, Monk, McEachran, Moore, Agustien, Richards.

What's good for the team isn't always good for fantasy, and the arrival of Sigurdsson and McEachran may fall into this category. The midfield suddenly looks a bit crowded and while it's still a good source for fantasy value, predicting regular minutes just got harder. Dyer would appear to be fairly safe as the most natural wide player (along with the oft-benched Routledge) and he wasn't taking many set pieces anyway (which seem to have been stolen by Sigurdsson). Graham remains the best uber-cheap forward but I like Helguson more if you can afford it. This defense remains a great value unit, particularly at home.

Tottenham
Friedel, Walker, Kaboul, King, Assou-Ekotto, Lennon, Parker, Modric, Bale, Van der Vaart, Defoe.
Subs: Cudicini, Pavlyuchenko, Bassong, Dawson, Kranjcar, Livermore, Pienaar.

No Adebayor of course due the terms of his loan arrangement, but otherwise it was as expected for Redknapp's side. Not too much to add on this lineup who provide good fantasy value at each position.

West Brom
Foster, Tamas, McAuley, Olsson, Shorey, Thomas, Mulumbu, Dorrans, Morrison, Cox, Fortune
Subs: Fulop, Mattock, Tchoyi, Long, Jara Reyes, Odemwingie, Dawson.

Over the last four gameweeks, six midfielders have registered double digit shots: Mata, Bale, Dempsey, Van der Vaart, Modric and Morrison. There is obviously potential with Morrison but my concern is that his points have come in a couple of big games followed by weeks of mediocre returns. The encouraging part is that those big games have come against weaker opponents, suggesting his success is at least somewhat predictable. No one owns him (0.4%) and the price is pretty good making him shortlistable if you're looking to do something a bit different. The other two options in the West Brom side who I liked - Long and Odemwingie - were both benched this week, rendering this team fairly useless outside of the aforementioned Morrison.

Wigan
Al Habsi, Gohouri, Caldwell, Boyce, Figueroa, Gomez, McCarthy, Watson, McArthur, Moses, Rodallega
Subs: Pollitt, Crusat, Di Santo, McManaman, Sammon, Stam, Lopez.

Al Habsi is a perfect advert for why you don't pay for 'keepers. Wigan have the league's second worst defense yet he ranks 7th among all 'keepers this year, thanks to his save points (especially those from the spot). There aren't any other every week starters here but I'd suggest that Gomez and Moses are worthy of consideration as a 4th or 5th midfielder. Rodallega is a name worth watching as he appears to have re-secured a spot in the first team and is clearly one of this team's most talented players when in form. He doesn't represent incredible value at 5.9m (I like Fletcher and Helguson more) but Wigan have a good run of fixtures from GW24-29 and he could be well placed to take advantage.

Wolves
Hennessey, Ward, Johnson, Berra, Foley, Edwards, Kightly, Henry, Frimpong, Jarvis, Fletcher
Subs: De Vries, Elokobi, Stearman Hunt, Milijas, Ebanks-Blake, Doyle

My Fletcher boosting is well documented and I really liked him this week so was disappointed with the outcome. Wolves managed to add a couple of goals but Fletcher was quiet throughout with just a single shot on goal. He was however involved with the play (48 touches and 34 passes) and I'm happy owning him over the coming weeks in spite of the tricky fixtures. There isn't a great deal more on offer here until O'Hara returns, with Jarvis looking too expensive and Hunt often benched.

Gameweek 22 Captain Data

2012-01-19T06:22:00.000Z

Something which has bothered me this year are the weekly captain rankings, as I find they generally descend into the standard conjecture you find on other fantasy sites. It's not that there's anything wrong with that, it's just it is freely available elsewhere and I don't think you get much out of reading it all again here. With that in mind, I'm moving to a more stats based approach, though with the intention of providing a pool of data, rather than specific rankings (which will depend on how risky you want to be, last minute injury news etc which I struggle to keep up with 100%).

Update: There has been confusion as to what the original table was setting out. I do not really have 'rankings' as such, only a number of different metrics which I use to base my weekly captain decision on. I haven't found one to be the 'magic bullet' and thus I'm shying away from saying Player X is clearly the best pick of the week, unless of course he was the leader in every category.

The below data should all be taken into account and you can give as much weight to any individual metric you see fit. The tableau powered tables should allow you you re-order the data however you see fit. They are summarised as below:

P90 Points per 90 minutes at scored this season at home/away based on this week's fixture
QG Quality Games - Number of appearances with 6 or more points
BG Bad Games - Number of appearances with 3 points or less
% Percentage of goals accounted for (goals and assists) when the player has been on the field (save for a few rounding errors where a player is subbed, but you get the rough idea)
Rating Percentage of goals accounted for multiplied by forecast team goals to give the forecast number of goals a player will account for in a given week. Possibly the strongest of the metrics, but by no means a perfect solution.

As always, I welcome any suggestions or requests, specifically regarding any data you would find useful when making your weekly captain selection. Over the coming weeks I be working towards trying to build a 'catch all' formula which incorporates all these factors into a single, rankable number, but until then, enjoy the raw data:

Gameweek 22 Preview (new look)

2012-01-16T01:53:00.000Z

I've been looking for a better way to present the data on this site for sometime, and, finally, I think I've found the answer. The folks at Tableau have put together some great software, which (hopefully) will allow me to update the site quicker and present more analysis in numerical form.

Below then are the weekly forecasts for GW22. The advantage of this is that it will allow me to get the rankings up sooner (and thus help with transfer decisions), while the captain rankings will follow later in the week (as that decision can be made at the last minute).

Please let me know in the comments or @plfantasy if the below table isn't showing up, or looks wrong (doesn't fit on page etc). If you do have any issues, please advise on whether you're using a Mac or PC and what browser you are using. I'm still experimenting so please be patient with anything that looks a bit off in the next day or so.

Lineup Lessons Gameweek 21

2012-01-15T06:18:00.000Z

Arsenal
Szczesny, Djourou, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Miquel, Walcott, Ramsey, Song, Benayoun, Arshavin, van Persie
Subs: Almunia, Rosicky, Park, Henry, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Squillaci, Yennaris.

Arshavin and Walcott have to be two of the most frustrating, supposedly good players in the league, and yet they both line up in a significant amount of games for Wenger's side. Walcott at least gets into good positions but his final ball has regressed once again to simply hitting it hard into the box or taking an ill-advised shot (he did take his goal very nicely though, hence: frustrating). Arshavin, however, contributes essentially nothing and worse, gave away the ball for Swansea's second this week. Rosicky did okay off the bench without much end product but you'd expect that he or Oxalde-Chamberlain will get more minutes in the future. Henry came on to play alongside Van Persie suggesting that's an option too, but you'd be surprised if he is fit enough to immediately start playing every week. This defense is too pricey to warrant ownership.

Aston Villa
Given, Hutton, Dunne, Collins, Warnock, Clark, Petrov, Albrighton, Ireland, Agbonlahor, Bent.
Subs: Guzan, N'Zogbia, Delph, Keane, Cuellar, Bannan, Gardner.

Given returned as expected which makes this unit more solid, though Guzan did a decent job so I wouldn't say this suddenly transforms Villa into a top unit (they did have 4 clean sheets in 13 games with Given though). I don't see Keane as someone who might have a fantasy impact failing injury to Agbonlahor or Bent. Keane's career could probably be classified as a disappointment with constant transfers hampering him from ever really settling into a side other than his first spell at Spurs. You always felt he had an eye on his next move (probably to a boyhood favorite club), and perhaps always thought he should be playing at a 'bigger team' and thus failed to settle at somewhere like Leeds or Spurs for too long. That's the most I've ever written on this site about a player with zero fantasy impact. Oh well.

Bolton
Bogdan, Steinsson, Wheater, Knight, Ricketts, Eagles, Reo-Coker, Muamba, Petrov, M Davies, Ngog
Subs: Lynch, Sanli, K Davies, Klasnic, Pratley, Boyata, Riley.

I'm not condoning the 'long ball to Davies' tactics, which is way overplayed as the focal point of Bolton's play (under Coyle they actually try and get the ball down) but the decision to play N'Gog over Davies here left me puzzled. N'Gog seems like the type of player Ferdinand will be comfortable playing against where as Davies has given him all kind of problems in past seasons. Eagles and Petrov simply don't produce enough down the flanks, suggesting a 4-5-1 with Klasnic up top and Davies on the right looking like a better option. Klasnic is the only player who can be fantasy relevant in this side yet he finds himself benched once again. Unless they invest the Cahill money wisely this is a side who you can all but exclude from your weekly scan of transfer targets.

Blackburn
Robinson, Lowe, Hanley, Givet, Olsson, Nzonzi, Pedersen, Dunn, Petrovic, Hoilett, Yakubu
Subs: Bunn, Formica, Rochina, Goodwillie, Vukcevic, Morris, Henley.

I've been fairly vocal in my criticism of Blackburn this year but in all fairness they have really started to turn the corner offensively, not only in that they've scored in 10 straight games, but also that they are beginning to score more than once, with seven goals in the last three weeks. However, the only player to score multiple goals over that 10 game period is Yakubu, who will likely now face a suspension, pending a potential appeal. No player other than Yakubu has managed to hit the target more than 10 times this year, a number that is particularly concerning when you consider that Wigan have four such players (Rodallega, Di Santo, Moses and Gomez). If they can get a focal point in midfield they could generate decent assist numbers but until then (and despite the fact I like Hoilett's game) this looks like a one man team for fantasy purposes.

Chelsea
Cech, Bosingwa, Luiz, Terry, Cole, Lampard, Romeu, Meireles, Ramires, Torres, Mata.
Subs: Turnbull, Essien, Malouda, Lukaku, Sturridge, Hutchinson, Bertrand.

It was somewhat surprising to see Sturridge miss out again here, though it might just be that he still wasn't quite fit enough to start. Torres is an intriguing play in Drogba's absence and though he didn't enjoy any end results here, he did at least manage four attempts on goal. It's tough to seriously consider him over the cheaper Adebayor though. The Chelsea defense was a good play this week and they duly delivered with a clean sheet. You have to at least question whether Cahill will walk into this side from day one but you'd think they're spending the money for a reason and thus he becomes another excellent way to access an elite defense for a mid-range price. Though it probably doesn't have a direct fantasy impact, it was good to see Essien make an appearance for Chelsea and his presence should make everyone better in this side (he isn't going to the African Cup on Nations, by the way).

Everton
Howard, Neville, Heitinga, Duffy, Baines, Donovan, Gibson, Fellaini, Drenthe, Cahill, Saha.
Subs: Mucha, Anichebe, Bilyaletdinov, Stracqualursi, McFadden, Gueye, Vellios.

I didn't see this one but from the stats it looks like Everton were a touch lucky to get away with a point. This side now has quite a lot of talent and I'm a little surprised there is so much focus on the 'Moyes has no money to succeed narrative' rather than the 'why aren't we getting more from our current players'. Drenthe has been in and out of the side despite having excellent underlying stats and production when he's played, but if he gets a consistent run of minutes he is a worthy option. Donovan got his first real fantasy points this week and is a decent differentiator for the foreseeable future. With so many defensive injuries (note the complete lack of cover on the bench) it's tough be overly excited about this unit's value at the back.

Fulham
Stockdale, Kelly, Senderos, Hangeland, JA Riise, Murphy, Dembele, Dempsey, Duff, Zamora, Ruiz
Subs: Etheridge, Sidwell, Johnson, Kasami, Hughes, Frei, Davies.

Not a good result here though at least this back line has finally settled down (at least for now). I'm a bit puzzled with what has happened to Baird who seemed to be a fixture in this side, but didn't feature at all again despite a lack of injury news. In the mean time Kelly is a nice option at 3.9m despite Fulham's inconsistency. That front line looks pretty settled now too, making this one of the more predictable lineups in the league.

Liverpool
Reina, Johnson, Coates, Skrtel, Jose Enrique, Carragher, Adam, Henderson, Gerrard, Downing, Kuyt.
Subs: Doni, Aurelio, Carroll, Shelvey, Kelly, Flanagan, Bellamy.

I really disliked what Dalglish did here, playing five at the back at home to Stoke. We did however get a start for Gerrard who moves into a position where his viability at needs mentioning. Perhaps this deserves a separate post, but in summary I like the idea of fully fit Gerrard (indeed he was one of my favorite players to watch at his peak) but given his price tag you need him to beat out the likes of Silva, Nani, Bale and Van der Vaart which looks a stretch right now, if only based on their respective teams' attacking options. Yes he will be a differential candidate but I'd like to see more from him before I consider him back to ~10m value. I want to be able to throw Carroll into that 'bounce back' potential category too but his playing time is simply too sporadic to consider.

Man Utd
Lindegaard, Rafael, Ferdinand, Evans, Evra, Valencia, Carrick, Scholes, Nani, Rooney, Welbeck
Subs: De Gea, Berbatov, Giggs, Park, Hernandez, Fabio, Pogba.

Lindegaard got his second straight start and could well be emerging as a close-to-must-own player if he indeed holds onto that job full time. Unfortunately, there's no real way to know for sure what Ferguson will do but if you're planning to wildcard this week, it's worth considering pairing him with Vorm (who you can start almost every week anyway) and then simply cut him when the situation becomes messy again. You can get similar value with Jonny Evans who should get plenty of minutes himself with Vidic done for the year and Smalling and Jones unable to regain their fitness. Even when that pair return, Ferguson has shown faith in Evans before and the first choice backline could well involve Evans and Jones alongside Ferdinand and Evra. A somewhat risky strategy with significant upside would be to grab Evans and Lindegaard now and ride them while you can, though you will of course then be limited with decent replacement options if and when they drop out of the side.

Going forward the important names remain unchanged and while Welbeck is tempting, it's tough to waste a United slot on a player who will likely only feature, at best, two of every three weeks (and that's probably optimistic).

Newcastle
Krul, Simpson, Coloccini, Williamson, Santon, R Taylor, Guthrie, Cabaye, Gutierrez, Best, Shola Ameobi
Subs: Elliot, Ben Arfa, Abeid, Perch, Gosling, Obertan, Ferguson.

Newcastle notched their 3rd clean sheet in the last six games, continuing their trend as one of the best budget defenses around. I wasn't convinced they would bounce back from the loss of S Taylor but they've been okay since then, if a bit inconsistent. If you look at who the clean sheets have come against, they've tended to be the weaker sides (Man Utd last week and Arsenal in GW1 aside) but that's actually a good thing for fantasy managers, who will find it easier to predict their successes in the future. The whole back line is well settled, though Santon won't always play, presuming Taylor's midfield deployment is not permanent. Going forward this side obviously loses a lot without Ba and the best other two options (Cabaye and Ben Arfa) were injured and benched. This team is a defense only unit until further notice (or if Cabaye is declared fit).

Norwich
Ruddy, Martin, Whitbread, Ayala, Naughton, Johnson, Pilkington, Surman, Hoolahan, Morison, Jackson
Subs: Steer, Drury, Crofts, Holt, Fox, Bennett, Wilbraham.

This midfield unit continues to frustrate, well, their unpredictable selection does anyway. All four players selected this week have scored a couple of goals already this year (with Pilkington adding five) but yet none of them have been able to earn a guaranteed place in the side. Johnson has the most shots, Pilkington has the most on target (and goals) while Hoolahan has the most key passes (and assists). You can take this to mean that they are all ownable but I take it as that none of them are.

QPR
Kenny, Young, Gabbidon, Ferdinand, Hill, Wright-Phillips, Derry, Buzsaky, Mackie, Helguson, Bothroyd
Subs: Cerny, Orr, Hall, Campbell, Smith, Ephraim, Macheda.

QPR were a little unlucky here, out shooting Newcastle 15-9 and enjoying 55% of the possession. Unfortunately the best chances fell to Bothroyd, who does some things well but is far from clinical. We'll see how Hughes changes the way he deploys the team and who he brings in during the transfer window (Santa Cruz anyone?) but as things stand there is limited value in this side, other than the spot-startable Helguson.

Stoke
Sorensen, Woodgate, Shawcross, Huth, Wilson, Delap, Whelan, Palacios, Etherington, Walters, Crouch
Subs: Begovic, Jones, Fuller, Pennant, Whitehead, Wilkinson, Jerome.

This is a fairly predictable side now, with Woodgate's fitness being the only real concern. With a couple of clean sheets in the last four gameweeks, perhaps we are starting to see a return to the form which made Shawcross and co useful options in the past couple of years. The stats suggest they were somewhat fortuitous to pickup a clean sheet this week (they had just 40% of the possession and were out shot 13-3) but Sorensen was credited with just two saves so all that possession didn't lead to much for Liverpool. The relevant attacking options in this side are pretty settled but I would issue a word of caution for all the managers piling on Walters as they play their wildcards. Per ESPN, in the last 10 league games he has registered just three shots on target (14 total) so while he did convert two of those into goals, that kind of conversion rate is unsustainable and unless Stoke change their style of play, he is a regression candidate for the second half of the year.

Sunderland
Mignolet, Bardsley, Kilgallon, O'Shea, Richardson, Larsson, Cattermole, Vaughan, McClean, Sessegnon, Bendtner
Subs: Westwood, Turner, Gardner, Wickham, Ji, Meyler, Elmohamady.

This was a bit of an odd team selection with Kilgallon and O'Shea starting at centre back despite Turner being available. Without Brown and Bramble (I can't believe I'm saying this), you can't rely on this unit for clean sheets and I'd keep away for the next few weeks until that situation shakes out. With Swansea and Norwich at home it is tempting to try and buy in but I would suggest that is risky given the rotation this team has endured. Sessegnon has received some attention of late (less than Walters though) but I like his chances of continuing his first half form given the number of changes he is receiving each week.

Swansea
Vorm, Rangel, Caulker, Williams, Taylor, Dyer, Agustien, Britton, Allen, Sinclair, Graham
Subs: Tremmel, Routledge, Monk, Lita, Moore, Richards, Sigurdsson.

A great win for Swansea and while they did concede twice, that was the first time that happened at home all year and so we won't downgrade this defensive unit on one game. They looked very composed going forward and moved the ball around well, but the problem is still (much like Norwich above) that the midfield can all produce and thus it's hard to harness their fantasy potential. Sinclair's penalties are a boost to his value and his 16 shots on target rank second only to Graham, making him the safest (but also the priciest of the midfield options) pick. He's never really going to rack up the assists though with both Gower and Allen looking better in that department. Dyer is somewhere in between the group and probably represents the best value, given his ability to contribute across all categories. Sigurdsson looked good off the bench, particularly on set pieces, and is worth monitoring over the coming weeks.

Tottenham
Friedel, Walker, Kaboul, Dawson, Assou-Ekotto, Lennon, Parker, Modric, Bale, Adebayor, Van der Vaart
Subs: Cudicini, Pavlyuchenko, Defoe, Bassong, Kranjcar, Rose, Livermore.

The team was as expected but this was a bit of a let down for Spurs following their attacking disappointment of the double gameweek. I'm still very much on the Bale, Van der Vaart and Adebayor bandwagons but just remember that these guys aren't quite at the City/United level, at least over prolonged periods of time. Also remember to note that Adebayor is unavailable next week (against his parent club).

West Brom
Foster, Jara Reyes, McAuley, Dawson, Shorey, Morrison, Scharner, Mulumbu, Thomas, Odemwingie, Cox
Subs: Fulop, Mattock, Long, Dorrans, Thorne, Tamas, Fortune.

Regular minutes or not, there's very little to be excited about here. I like Odemwingie a lot but at 7.2m he is just too expensive considering the lack of goals in this side. I'd prefer a Graham or Morison plus ~2m unless West Brom bring in a couple of bodies to help create more chances for this side.

Wolves
Hennessey, Foley, Johnson, Berra, Ward, Kightly, Frimpong, Henry, Jarvis, Edwards, Fletcher
Subs: De Vries, Elokobi, Stearman, Ebanks-Blake, Hunt, Milijas, Doyle.

He just scores goals. If only he would play every week. Only Ba has scored more goals than Fletcher over their last 10 appearances but yet he is still regularly rotated for Doyle, who has two goals despite playing 250 minutes more than Fletcher. He has played more of late though (only one sub appearance in the last nine gameweeks) and given his price and hence value, I think he is very ownable as a third striker. With three of the next four at home (and the other against a so-so QPR side) Fletcher (2% owned) looks like a very nice replacement for anyone stuck holding the Africa-bound Ba. There's not much else to get excited here as this defense is mediocre and the midfield has talent but lacks a potential star in O'Hara's absence.

Gameweek 21 Preview

2012-01-13T06:03:00.001Z

Captain Picks
Those top four teams look pretty appealing and when you throw the ever present Van Persie to the mix, you have good depth in captain options for this week.

I've been working on some data for an upcoming post, looking at the percentage of goals each player accounts for (counting goals and assists). I hope this will make the above goalscoring forecasts more useful in that, if Arsenal are projected to score 2 goals and City are projected to score 2.3, you might still favour Van Persie as your captain over Aguero if you knew that he accounts for 64% of the Gunners goals (and is thus forecast to account for 1.28 goals) where as Aguero's percentage is just 38% and so he is forecast to account just 0.86 goals.A full post is to come on this, but I start to reference the stats below, as I try to make the captain more picks for quantitative, rather than just the standard, "Rooney is good, Bolton are crap' you get elsewhere.

Wayne Rooney
Rooney already has a hat trick against the Wanderers this year and as a long suffering Bolton fan, I can tell you he has piled the misery of the Whites several times before. United have the best fixture of the week and Rooney has enough rest of late to suggest he'll start here without too much risk. He's accounted for 35% of United's goals when he's played (pulled down by his poor assist numbers) which gives him a rating of 0.855 in this one. He's probably the safest play of the week.

Nani
Nani has accounted for 13 goals versus Rooney's 15 so there isn't as big of a difference as you might think. That gives him a rating of 0.664 for the week. It's been a quiet couple of weeks for Nani but those two double gameweeks still lurk in recent memory and his form over the last 8 gameweeks (6.6 P90) rate ahead of everyone aside from Demba Ba. The downside with captaining Nani is always his inconsistency as you hate to pickup just 2 points from your captain. The standard deviation of his scores this year comes in at 5.5, second only to Lampard.

Sergio Aguero
Aguero continues his excellent season at City and few others can match his upside or consistency. When he's played he has accounted for 38% of City's goals this year, a higher total than Rooney, which is surprising given the strength of depth of attacking options in this talented City side. This gives him a rating of 0.844 for the week. The last few weeks have been feast or famine for Aguero so he does come with some risk, especially as he's on the road where as most of the other options here have home games.

David Silva
You're paying here for consistency rather than upside. The Spanish wizard has just two double digit gameweeks, but on the other hand, he's only failed to score more than appearance points once when starting the game. Despite City's abundance of talent, Silva has still managed to account for 29% of their goals, giving him a rating of 0.643 for the week. He does come with some fitness worries for the week though, which obviously hurts his 'consistency' tag and thus he isn't as good a pick as normal.

Emmanuel Adebayor
Ade broke some hearts last week (your humble blogger included) as he managed just 4 points in the double gameweek. That said, he's still accounting for 41% of Spurs' goals which gives him a rating of 0.791 for the week. He's had successful scores in seven of the last 11 gameweeks thus making him one of the more consistent options around. He's played virtually every minute in the league this year so, glass half full, he's a lock to start, glass half empty, he's due a rest (and with City coming up next week, now might be a tempting time to do it).

Gareth Bale
Bale's production of late is pretty much the definition of boom or bust with scores of 13-2-0-4-16-1-12 over the past seven gameweeks. That said, those big gameweeks came against Bolton (H), Norwich (A) and West Brom (H) / Everton (H) so Wolves at home would appear to be another golden opportunity for another big haul (indeed Wolves have a worse road defense than all those teams).Bale has had a hand in 35% of Spurs goals this year giving him a rating of 0.685 for the week.

Rafael Van der Vaart
The thing I like best about statistical research is when you find a (usually trivial) small piece of data that surprises you. For example, Van der Vaart has scored or assisted 38% of Spurs' goals when he's played, ahead of Gareth Bale who has been (rightly) hailed as one of the best players in the league this year (this gives him a rating of 0.740 for the week). Of course, Bale's form has led to more fantasy points but when the Dutchman has played he's been even better in fantasy terms with a P90 of 6.6 versus Bale's 6.0. That said, since his explosion in GWs 6-10 Van der Vaart has been pretty inconsistent and thus it's tough to put him alongside some of the other elite options until he shows he is fully fit and ready to contribute.

Juan Mata
Mata probably isn't a captain option just yet but he's clearly showing signs of fulfilling the potential we thought he had coming into the season. He's accounting for 31% of Chelsea's goals which is ahead of the likes of Nani and Silva, though he is of course limited by Chelsea's underwhelming form (perhaps weakened still by the departure of Drogba to the ACN). He does however have one thing in his favour: a home fixture; and the list of regular starters who've managed to top his 7.4 P90 average at home is limited to Aguero, Ba, Van Persie, Silva and Rooney - a who's who of captain options. I'm not quite there yet with Mata given the good fixtures enjoyed by the other top teams (as reflected by his 0.542 rating) but he's earned his place on this list and could move up in future weeks if the fixtures fall more kindly.

Robin Van Persie
It's not often we take this long to get to Van Persie but the fixture just simply isn't very promising. Swansea's home form may be the biggest story of the year as they've notched 6 clean sheets and haven't yet conceded more than a single goal, despite already facing United and Spurs.Van Persie has been basically as good away from home (7.7 P90) as at the Emirates (7.8 P90) so there's no reason to be too concerned there. He's also gone to Chelsea and Villa, who have decent home records and enjoyed success so let's not write him off just yet. I wouldn't be worried about captaining Van Persie in any gameweek but this is one where there might be better options available. His 0.765 rating is still good, but perhaps not the elite level we've seen in past weeks.

I will expand on the ratings used above over the weekend and as always continue to send your questions to @plfantasy or post them below in the comments and I'll try to answer as many as possible by the deadline.

Finally, a big thanks for all the kind words following the announcement of my guest spot at Fantasy Football Scout. Things will continued as before here, but I hope anyone who doesn't already read FFS will check out my, and all the other, work over there in the coming weeks,

Fantasy Football Scout

2012-01-12T05:18:00.000Z

In case anyone missed today's announcement, I've been lucky enough to be invited to write some guest posts over at Fantasy Football Scout. I'm sure everyone who reads this humble blog is well aware of the awesomeness of FFS, but if not then I whole heartedly recommend the site as a daily must read.

Nothing will change here and I'll continue to post the weekly preview, lineup lessons and other ramblings you've grown accustomed too. My posts at FFS will be a mixture between free to all and members only, and I'll link to them from here (and note whether you need to be a member or not).

I'll also continue to ramble on Twitter @plfantasy - something I recommend for all. It may not sound like everyone's thing but even if you never post, it's a great way to follow the news and keep up to date without trawling sites every day.

Anyway, thanks for everyone's continued support and I look forward to the remainder of the season which is shaping up nicely.

The form fallacy

2012-01-09T06:09:00.001Z

Any time one of the league's better players struggles for goalscoring form and then breaks his drought, you will inevitably hear the commentator point out that while his poor 'form' was temporary, his class is permanent. We aren't here to perform autopsies on former stars of previous decades to suggest their class was anything but permanent, but instead we will examine the very notion of 'form' and how this is reflected in a player's goalscoring record (and hence fantasy success).

A player is described as being 'in form' under two distinct scenarios. The first is where a (rare) commentator has actually watched all of that players' games, assessed his overall performance and concluded that he is playing up to his full potential. The second, and much more common occurrence, is where an 'expert', or more pertinently here, a fantasy manager, will assess that a player is in form because he's scored a couple of goals in the last few weeks.

We are obviously interested in the second scenario, and more precisely, whether players score more goals following a game in which they found the back of the net. We will expand the analysis to assess the likelihood of a player scoring following a scoring streak of one, two and three games.

The madness in the method
We want to ascertain how often a player follows up a goal scoring performance with another goal scoring performance, and then how this compares to their standard goal scoring rate. We will look at how often players follow one, two and three game scoring streaks to try and identify the value of 'form'.

	All	FW	MD	DF
Scoring Games (SG)	837	336	374	127
Scored in next game	123	66	56	1
%	15%	20%	15%	1%

Back to back SG	123	66	56	1
Scored in next game	38	18	19	1
%	31%	27%	34%	100%

Three in a row SG	35	17	18	0
Scored in next game	11	5	6	0
%	31%	29%	33%	-

As expected, scoring last week does not have much predictive value for scoring this week (just 15%). The first lesson then is to not chase points based on a single performance alone. If a player is a recent signing or has suddenly been deployed in a new position his goalscoring may be indicative of future success, but chances are the predictive value is low.

If a player has scored in back-to-back games (or even three in a row), on first glance it appears that there is fairly strong evidence that his success will continue in the next fixture (31%). However, the proportion of goals scored by the top players is obviously disproportionately high and so you need to see the rate at which each player normally scores goals to understand the context.

The below table shows the 'streakiest' players from last year, based on the difference between the rate at which they normally score goals ('Score %') and the rate at which they scored a goal following a goal in the prior week (GW1%), having scored in back-to-back games (GW2 %) or following a scoring streak of three games (GW3%):

Not the worst list of players but aside from Meireles (who scored in 5 straight games and then never again), Adam and Kuyt the majority of the group failed to continue their 'form' across all three categories and thus we have to doubt if there's anything more to their streaks than blind luck and random chance.

Top guns
Rather than look at random players, let's turn our attention to the league's top scorers and see if any of them showed a propensity for hot streaks:

In short, there is very little correlation here. Some players had success in the games following goals, but nothing really to a degree that indicates other than a normal distribution of results. It seems that the only players who consistently showed a higher likelihood of following up a scoring performance with a goal played for Liverpool with the aforementioned Meireles, Kuyt and Adam joined by Maxi Rodriguez here. That may say as much about that team as the individual players though, and could be a separate avenue worth exploring (does a team's form or their opponents' strength dictate the result more?).

This season
Has anything changed this year? Are we seeing any different trends of predictable players? Is the world really going to end?

The top two names obviously stand out as a couple of elite players who have shown a strong tendency to follow up scoring performances with another, whether looking at a scoring streak of one, two or three games. However, Van der Vaart actually just has the one streak of five games, while Rooney has two streaks of five and three games respectively. Considering a distinct lack of 'streakiness' last year, it is therefore tough to read too much into these numbers.

The point here is not to get into individual players but to focus on the fact that, if you measure 'form' in terms of goalscoring, there is little evidence to really suggest that players consistently get 'hot'. There isn't any evidence to suggest you should shy away from players who scored last week either (indeed it is probably foolish to bench a Rooney or Aguero coming off a good game) but you should be thinking twice about bringing a player in based on a 10 point fantasy gameweek which was built on a goal from a single shot on target and the inevitable three bonus points that follow. Even two or three game scoring streaks can be fools gold if not backed up by sustainable underlying stats (shots on goal, particularly those on target).

Reader Questions

2012-01-07T21:59:00.000Z

@McShambles Is Elliott Bennett worth a punt as my 5th midfielder now that Brunt is injured? Two assists in last two games for Norwich and 4.8

No one in that Norwich side has been able to lock into the first team and with just two starts since GW12 I don't think Bennett is the answer here. I still like B Johnson the most from the Canaries but would still rank him behind Moses and Faurlin who remain atop my budget mid list. Gower has fallen away having struggled to log consistent minutes over the Christmas period.

@CSJDKK will u be making a list of prem players going to the African Cup?
I will try and do a post on this, but in the mean time, Fantasy Football Scout has a nice summary here.

nsj91 - Chris (or anyone else for that matter).. do you have any suggestions on the ideal week to play the january wildcard?
It's going to be subjective based on your team's performance and injuries but given that we only have 3 gameweeks to use the extra wildcard, if you need to make changes, do so now. We have 18 gameweeks yet to go and assuming you still have both wildcards left, you want to maximise both of them. It therefore makes sense to break the fixtures into two groups (say, GW21-30 and GW30-38) and plan to use your wildcards to capitalise on both. If you only have the freebie left then you need to plan for the entire season and can make less short term decisions (such as looking at someone like Torres who will greatly benefit from the African Cup of Nations).

DtotheT - what would your opinion be on losing Aguero for Yakubu? Obviously frees up a serious amount of funds i.e. allows Sessegnon for Tiote, Kompany for Gabbiddon. I already have Silva Bale Nani Van Persie and Adebayor.
I don't consider Aguero to be a must own player but I'd be wary of downgrading to Yakubu to then only grab solid performers with the freed up funds. The elite players have been just that this year and I would suggest having several stars and a group of scrubs is a better way to go than stacking your team with mid range options. It's far from guaranteed that a Sessegnon will significantly outscore the mids available in that ~5m group, and while I still like City's defence, they don't necessarily represent amazing value over some of the less-fancied teams (Swansea) or some of the budget options available at the big teams (Evans). Given the quality of your other players, it might be that your bench is really stretched thin and thus the move makes sense, but as a general rule I'd lean towards more, not less, stars.

Chris - Is it really advisable to keep the likes of Phil Jones and Richards/Kompany at the same time? Looking at the top teams, it seems that most put more emphasis on midfield and forward and stack the back with budget defenders.
This is one of the decisions that will define the second half. Historically you need to have coverage of at least a couple of the elite sides. Ideally you would get this via cheaper routes (like Enrique at the start of the season and Evans at the moment) but leaning too heavily on the Swansea's on the world tended to be a bad idea. However, the inconsistency of the big sides is a concern and the likes of Kompany or Jones are no longer guaranteed consistently high returns.

United and City are still 1st and 3rd in clean sheets though so in terms of absolute points I still they deserve ownership. The issue of value is a different question and one that turns on where else you will use that cash. I would absolutely take a ~6m defender and a ~4.5m midfielder than a ~4.5m defender and a ~6m midfielder as I really don't see much improvement in the midfield options until you get to the 6.5m range. Sessegnon and Walters are the pick of the mid-range midfielders but they both cost as much as Kompany and have just a couple more points. Kompany's future production is much more predictable and thus I'd still prefer to own him from that group.

I will try and find a way to quantify these thoughts and put them into a more coherent post, but in short, I think the City/United defenders remain good value, but not the must own players they once were.

Vanilla - it seems to me that although the quantity of clean sheets to go around may be similar to previous years, they are difficult to predict this season. Is there any easy way to take this analysis, Chris, and scrub against your "gameweek preview" data?
This is a great idea, and something I thought about doing last year but never got around to doing. I will compare the expected goals per game with the actual result which will give us an idea of which teams are the most 'predictable'. A team who gets a predictable 6 clean sheets will have just as much value as a great team who get 9 clean sheets but do so in games in which you'd never start them (vs United, at Arsenal etc) but will likely come at a lower price.

Vanilla - What's everyone's take on Thierry Henry ? Seems like he might get a few games: the coach loves him, and a 2month loan deal is a welcome extra-man for rotating players that need a day off
It's going to take all my self restraint not to chase Henry but given that Chamakh was priced at 8.0m it's likely that the legend's price tag will be simply too high to consider. I don't watch MLS enough to know what kind of pace Henry has maintained but it's doubtful he can explode back on the scene in just 2 months to justify a price tag higher than Ba or Dzeko.
Remember the above paragraph when Henry scores against Leeds on Monday and I add a new post saying he is a must own player. I CANNOT be trusted when it comes to the great one!

Wildcard proposals

Raddz
Current team
Vorm, Given : Assou-Ekkoto, Jones, Enrique, Evans, N Taylor : Silva, Valencia, Bale, Dyer, Tiote : Van Persie, Aderbayor, Morrison

Proposed team
Vorm, Hennessey : Assou-Ekkoto, Jones, Enrique, Simpson, N Taylor : Silva, Valencia, Bale, Sessegnon, Dyer : Van Persie, Aderbayor, Sturridge

On paper, Vorm and Hennessey make a good but not great combo, though Stooshermadness makes a solid point in that Hennessey can be bailed out by his save totals. With Vorm being so good this year it makes sense to pair him with a cheaper option as he will probably play 60%+ of your games (basically every home game and some road games against the weaker sides). I like the potential of Sunderland under O'Neil and might therefore go with Mignolet but I like the proposed move too.

I still like Assou Ekotto for the medium term, though I'd agree that Spurs hit a tricky spot from GW26 onwards and thus you'll need a backup plan for him if you keep him here. I might be tempted to hang on to Evans given United's next fixture (Bolton H) though I understand this a a risk and so I wouldn't argue with making this move either. Again I like Stoosher's idea to flip Jones to Evans, though this will depend on (a) how much money you lose on Jones as if you bought him at 5.5m you won't be able to get him back without wasting money and (b) how you can use the money saved.

I like the midfield with Silva and Bale looking like sure-fire bets right now. Dyer has been up and down but I like him considering you probably have him at 4.5m. I like Sessegnon but I think Valencia is overpriced given his deployment as an emergency right back and the imminent return of Young who will steal some minutes back. His underlying stats aren't particularly impressive and I would much rather have Dempsey if your budget will stretch.

It's tough to argue with that front three which looks great and gives you three players who you feel comfortable starting every week (Sturridge is even more valuable with Drogba departing for the ACN).

It's a great looking team but the overall caveat I would add which applies to everyone is to consider differentiation too. You of course want to pick players who have performed well, but also those who you like to have a big second half. There aren't any particular red flags here but it is worth bearing in mind.

CDI
Current team
Vorm, Ruddy : Enrique, Jones, BAE, Evans, Senderos : Bale, Nani, Silva, Osman, Drenthe : Ade, Ba RVP

Proposed team
Vorm, Sorensen : Enrique, Jones, BAE, Shotton, Kelly : Bale, Nani, Silva, Dempsy, Sessegnon : Adebayor, Yak, RVP

Vorm and Sorensen make a really nice pair though you have some risk in that Begovic might regain his place at some point. That wouldn't necessarily put me off though and I like the upgrade over Ruddy for the money. I agree with ditching Senderos but I'm not sure Kelly is a long term solution either. Baird and Hughes are big threats to play RB too and I'd say at this point you really need to either pay for Riise or switch Sorensen to Stockdale. Shotton is tempting given his price but I'm not sure you want two Stoke defenders given their two clean sheets in the last 13 gameweeks. I would prefer to double up on Swansea (N Taylor or Caulker) or go with Newcastle (Simpson).

I love the midfield and my only word of caution would be that you don't have any differentiation. It's hard to balance between not chasing historical points but yet also not being too cute with your selections and the safest move is definitely the path you have taken. Be mindful though that your unlikely to catch the leaders with these selections.

The front line is good again, especially considering the fact that Yakubu is essentially relegated to the bench in most weeks as your midfield is so strong. In terms of value and pure production Ade and RvP might be the best two forwards to select at the moment.

Mitchell Sterling
Proposed team
Vorm, Stockdale : Kompany, Enrique, Evans, McAuley, Caulker, Bale, Silva, Walters, Sessegnon, Moses, Van Persie, Aguero, Adebayor

There's no arguing with any of your selection as while I'm not keen on West Brom's defense, McAuley is clearly your third sub and thus will rarely play.

My gut says that there will be better players than Walters and Sessegnon in the second half, as those mid-range options rarely deliver a full great season. Both are deployed further up the field than their classification though so they could well be exceptions to that trend. I might be tempted to go with Dempsey and a budget midfielder which as you will often have the opportunity to play a 4-3-3 when Caulker has a good fixture. You need a strong bench but it's tough to bench ~6.5m players on a regular basis.

Thanks for all the questions this week. Keep them coming and I'll try and answer another round with next week's GW21 preview. I have a few other pieces due this week including some wildcard thoughts and the aforementioned words on the African Cup of Nations.

Winter Wondering

2012-01-05T04:42:00.000Z

Common sense would lead us to believe that goals per game should decrease in the winter months. The best teams start to 'settle down' and 'make their push' for the title while rainy nights in Stoke get harder to manage as the elements take their toll on the playing surfaces.

However, 'common sense' can often lead us astray so I thought we should look at the actual numbers.

The percentage of games in which teams keep clean sheets has been pretty consistent over the years:

2007-08	29%
2008-09	33%
2009-10	29%
2010-11	25%
2011-12	26%

If you limit games to just January and February, we can see the impact of the winter months:

Over 80 games in January and February these trends are going to lead to 4 or 5 extra clean sheets, which is promising but nothing to get overly excited about.

What though, if we limit our search to the 'big teams', the ones who are supposed to be locking in on their way to the big title push. Isn't this the time of year when the United's of the world prove their mettle?

Let's look at the data for the past four seasons:

Not exactly what we were expecting. Aside from Arsenal (who probably wouldn't be considered an elite defensive team at the best of times) and United, the 'elite' sides actually take a slight backwards step in terms of clean sheets kept in January and February. Even United, the supposed kings of the second half, only show a minor improvement (though from a loftier starting position).

Not all analysis will lead to a positive action, some will lead us to not do something. Here, I think we can conclude that defense is not necessarily a major solution to our problems and a different strategy shouldn't really be undertaken in the coming months. With the top teams all having their shaky defensive moments this year, it seems safest to continue with the likes of Enrique, Jones and Richards but continue to avoid going overboard with multiple defenders from any one team.

Next time I will look at goals scored over the next couple of months and see if any particular trends emerge historically.

Gameweek 20 Preview

2012-01-02T03:07:00.000Z

Captain Picks
Barring transfer mistakes or an act of God, you own at least one or two Spurs players and will surely captain them this week. Therefore, in the interest of time I am going to skip over the other candidates and focus on Redknapp's big three:

Gareth Bale - leads the trio in points to date but has suffered badly from inconsistency with too many two or three pointers so far this year (9). However, his last four home games have given him 4-13-11-14 points which more than hints at the upside the young Welshman brings. His 40 shots ranks 3rd among all midfielders (Dempsey and Sinclair) and his 44 key passes can only be topped by Mata (45). Both opponents have tightened up of late but the likes of Tony Hibbert haven't faced anyone of Bale's quality for a while. His threat from set pieces is limited but his style of play tends to lend itself to bonus points so if he scores, he is likely to rack up 2 or 3 bonus points too.
Summary: Rarely rested, high upside but a boom/bust prospect.

Rafael van der Vaart - appears to have lost penalty duties to Adebayor but remains a threat from corners and free kicks. His 26 shots on target are only topped by Dempsey but he lacks the assist threat of Bale and has only delivered 3 so far this year. His fitness is a concern as even when he's been able to stay fit, he is often pulled off after 60 minutes, losing out on the junk time when fantasy points are padded. His seven games with 3 points or less compare favourably to Bale, but he's only enjoyed one double digit gameweek since GW10 and thus his upside is also lower.
Summary: set piece duties make him a touch safer but fitness concerns and lower upside hurt his value.

Emmanuel Adebayor - since his first start in GW4 Adebayor has missed just 9 minutes of action. In those 16 gameweeks he's failed to top two points just four times yet has shown his upside with three double digit gameweeks of his own. Can contribute assists along with goals which separates him from many of his similarly priced peers. His nine goals exceeds the above pair, but that advantage is all but eliminated when you consider the fewer points he earns as a forward. With less points per goal and fewer big games, Ade's upside might not measure up to Bale but he brings a winning combination of consistency with big score potential and is thus a great play for the week.
Summary: lowest downside, good upside and rarely, if ever, being rested makes Ade a great pick.

While I like the Everton defense for the week and would of course start any of their outfielders I owned, I would not recommend captaining any Everton player of the above Spurs trio this week.

Lineup Lessons: Gameweek 19

2012-01-01T23:41:00.001Z

Arsenal
Szczesny, Djourou, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Vermaelen, Song, Arteta, Walcott, Ramsey, Arshavin, van Persie
Subs: Almunia, Rosicky, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Gervinho, Chamakh, Benayoun, Coquelin.

Arshavin in for Gervinho was the only change of note here and with Gervinho heading to the African Cup of Nations soon, he should be sold by anyone who had taken a risk with him. With the big name forwards elsewhere getting rotated, Van Persie is looking increasingly safe as the best fantasy player around.

Aston Villa
Guzan, Cuellar, Collins, Dunne, Warnock, Albrighton, Petrov, Clark, N'Zogbia, Ireland, Agbonlahor.
Subs: Marshall, Hutton, Bent, Delfouneso, Bannan, Weimann, Gardner.

Bent started on the bench due to precaution because of his injury or perhaps as lingering punishment for Christmas shopping-gate. Either way he remains overpriced, as do the majority of players in this uninspiring side.

Blackburn
Bunn, Lowe, Samba, Hanley, Pedersen, Henley, Nzonzi, Petrovic, Rochina, Formica, Yakubu
Subs: Kean, Slew, Blackman, Goodwillie, Vukcevic, Morris, Linganzi.

Great win for Rovers and a surprising return for anyone who played Yakubu this week, though he remains the only bright light in this side. Penalty duties and his ability to convert few chances into goals make Yakubu one of the better budget forwards around, now he is fully established in the first team and all but undroppable.

Bolton
Jaaskelainen, Steinsson, Cahill, Knight, Ricketts, M Davies, Reo-Coker, Muamba, Petrov, Ngog, Klasnic
Subs: Bogdan, Robinson, Eagles, Sanli, K Davies, Wheater, O'Halloran.

It was surprising to see Robinson and K Davies on the bench here but Ricketts came up big with the goal while N'Gog and Klasnic have been more lively than Davies. Still little to get excited about here though.

Chelsea
Cech, Ferreira, Luiz, Terry, Cole, Ramires, Romeu, Meireles, Sturridge, Drogba, Mata
Subs: Turnbull, Lampard, Torres, Malouda, Bosingwa, Kalou, Hutchinson.

Ferreira adds even more confusion to this back line which seems more trouble than it's worth of late, with insufficient value to justify their lofty price tags. The front line is looking more settled though with Malouda apparently on his way to France and Torres mired in misery on the bench. Four straight games with a single goal is a concern but at least we can safely suggest that Sturridge and Mata will start in most weeks, and thus are decent fantasy options.

Everton
Howard, Hibbert, Distin, Jagielka, Baines, Rodwell, Neville, Heitinga, Osman, Cahill, Saha
Subs: Mucha, Gueye, McFadden, Bilyaletdinov, Stracqualursi, Barkley, Anichebe.

Moyes doesn't enjoy great strength and depth, making this one of the more settled lineups in the league. They've managed three clean sheets in the last seven and haven't conceded more than a lone goal since GW11. With the bigger teams not showing signs of toughening up defensively, this side deserves to slide back into contention having been frozen out (at least by me) for the past month or so. At 4.8m, Hibbert would appear to be very useful value, and makes a very nice pickup for this week's double gameweek. Going forward I would not get carried away with this side as while they do get two games, one is a tricky trip to Spurs and Everton haven't really shown they have the quality to consistently deliver in such games. If you own them, you play them, but I wouldn't go paying for the likes of Saha or Cahill based on this week's fixtures. The arrival of Landon Donovan is intriguing to say the least, and while I normally shy away from new arrivals, the double gameweek does make the US-hero a viable (but risky) option.

Fulham
Stockdale, Kelly, Hangeland, Senderos, JA Riise, Ruiz, Murphy, Dempsey, Frei, Sa, Dembele
Subs: Etheridge, Sidwell, Baird, Kasami, Duff, Hughes, Etuhu.

As always we talk about this defense and with Baird sitting here, it seems there is no safe and reliable option on this back line. If you like their defense you need to either pony up for Riise or grab Stockdale until Schwarzer returns. The usual suspects up front and in midfield remain good options and with less depth than the bigger clubs, holding players like Dempsey or Murphy is a nice hedge to cover yourself when Mancini and Ferguson play their rotation games.

Man City
Hart, Zabaleta, Lescott, Kompany, Kolarov, Johnson, De Jong, Toure Yaya, Barry, Nasri, Dzeko. Subs: Pantilimon, Richards, Clichy, Savic, Milner, Silva, Aguero.

Silva and Aguero were due a rest so this wasn't a total surprise, though to drop them both along with Milner and Richards was a strange move. City looked extremely flat in the first half and Dzeko will likely receive criticism for the number of chances he wasted. In truth it wasn't the worst display in the world and with a few different bounces it could have wound up being an 'industrious' win. In the long run it may help fantasy managers as Mancini realizes his squad isn't perhaps good enough to allow wholesale changes, and thus Aguero and Silva may be safer in the first team lineup.

Man Utd
De Gea, Rafael, Jones, Carrick, Evra, Nani, Valencia, Park, Welbeck, Hernandez, Berbatov.
Subs: Lindegaard, Anderson, Diouf, Pogba, Keane, Fryers, Cole.

The centre back situation has gone from one which created opportunities for cheap points (Evans) to one which has significantly cut the value of the other defensive players. United simply cannot expect to play Jones and Carrick at centre back with the light weight Rafael at right back, and go on and win games in the Premier League, even against crappy opponents. It'll be tough to sell Jones if you brought him in at 5.5m but he (and other United defenders) no longer represent great value for those looking to bring players in over the next couple of weeks. Rooney was dropped for what appears to be a minor incident and should return next gameweek.

Norwich
Ruddy, Martin, Whitbread, Ayala, Naughton, Pilkington, Johnson, Fox, Surman, Hoolahan, Morison.
Subs: Rudd, Crofts, Holt, Jackson, Bennett, Barnett, Wilbraham.

This team continues to underwhelm with no clean sheets and goals from different sources every week. Outside of Morison, and I suppose Holt if your desperate, I'm not sure if anyone in this side is ownable.

QPR
Cerny, Young, Connolly, Gabbidon, Traore, Faurlin, Barton, Mackie, Taarabt, Wright-Phillips, Bothroyd
Subs: Murphy, Orr, Hill, Derry, Campbell, Smith, Helguson.

Helguson seems to have fallen out of favour here though has generally delivered consistent minutes so I wouldn't be overly concerned just yet. The rest of the team looks pretty settled when healthy and provides a few decent sub options, when the fixture is better than this week's.

Stoke
Sorensen, Wilkinson, Shawcross, Huth, Wilson, Pennant, Delap, Palacios, Etherington, Walters, Crouch
Subs: Begovic, Jones, Diao, Whitehead, Upson, Shotton, Jerome.

This is not the same defensive team as we saw last year as they blew a golden opportunity (on paper) for a clean sheet this week. The players are fairly reliable however and going forward they provide some nice mid range options so this remains a team to consider when picking your third forward or fourth midfielder.

Sunderland
Mignolet, Gardner, O'Shea, Brown, Colback, McClean, Cattermole, Vaughan, Larsson, Bendtner, Sessegnon
Subs: Carson, Kilgallon, Elmohamady, Ji, Meyler, Noble, Laing.

A great win in reality, not so much from a fantasy perspective. O'Neil's arrival hasn't transformed this defensive unit into one of the league's best, but they have been better and looked very solid (if somewhat fortuitous) against City this week. With Brown limping off, O'Shea looks like the only safe option in this back line and at 5.0m makes a solid, if unspectacular 4th defender.

Swansea
Vorm, Richards, Williams, Monk, Taylor, Dyer, Dobbie, Allen, Gower, Sinclair, Moore
Subs: Tremmel, Britton, Graham, Routledge, Lita, Rangel, Agustien.

Graham starting on the bench was a surprise here, as is the continued absence of Rangel. I wouldn't bail on Graham just yet but there are better options that Rangel in this side, with Taylor making the most sense. The midfield unit looks settled, and while it's tough to predict production each week, they are all capable of contributing in a number of catgeories and play consistently - valuable assets for ~4.5m players.

Tottenham
Friedel, Walker, Assou-Ekotto, Kaboul, Gallas, Modric, Parker, Sandro, Bale, Van der Vaart, Adebayor
Subs: Cudicini, Defoe, Dawson, Kranjcar, Rose, Livermore, Pienaar.

Aside from arguably bringing in Ledley King, this is probably Spurs' strongest side. The form of Bale and Van der Vaart continues to be up and down, with each one seeming to succeed in alternate weeks. In the long run they would appear to represent roughly equal value though Bale has the slight edge of having a stronger fitness record over the Dutchman. That pair, along with Adebayor and Assou Ekotto look like some of the best options around for this double gameweek, and you will obviously want to try and maximise your value there. As with Everton above, be careful about going overboard and paying for transfers, but if you are carrying injuries or players who not play, this might be one instance where the four point hit is worth it.

West Brom
Foster, Jones, Shorey, McAuley, Dawson, Brunt, Scharner, Morrison, Thomas, Odemwingie, Long. Subs: Fulop, Tchoyi, Cox, Dorrans, Thorne, Fortune, Jara Reyes.

The lineup is easy to predict, but so are the results. Aside from Odemwingie, who is good but will always struggle to matchup against the likes of Ba and Sturridge, this side seems almost completelt devoid of fantasy options.

Wigan
Al Habsi, Stam, Alcaraz, Caldwell, Figueroa, Jones, Gomez, Diame, McCarthy, Moses, Rodallega.
Subs: Pollitt, Gohouri, Crusat, Watson, Di Santo, McArthur, Sammon.

It's been frustrating but Moses is now the leading scorer available for under 5.0m and with regular playing time in the bag, there's no reason to think that won't continue. Wigan shredly decided to play there best player from last season (Rodallega) this week, who simply responded with a pair of assists and three shots for the week. He isn't worth owning, but I do believe he makes this side better.

Wolves
Hennessey, Stearman, Johnson, Berra, Elokobi, Hunt, Henry, Ward, Jarvis, Fletcher, Ebanks-Blake.
Subs: De Vries, Edwards, Hammill, Doyle, Doherty, Foley, Guedioura.

Fletcher simply scores goals and enjoys one of the better goals per minute rates in the league. At 5.9m he is one of the best sub-6.0m options around and makes a good 3rd forward pickup. Whether or not he's worth the premium over a Graham type player depends of how often you plan to play him and where else you could use the money. This midfield continues to underwhelm and while there is some value here, the upcoming fixtures are tough and there might be better option available elsewhere.

Gameweek 19 Preview

2011-12-28T15:58:00.000Z

The last two weeks have illustrated the randomness of fantasy football, where even when you predict the outcome right, your team can wind up with no points. For example, as forecast, the two Manchester teams have kept two clean sheets over the past two gameweeks but despite owning P Jones, Richards and Evans, I've come out of it with zero clean sheets after Jones limped off and Richards was subbed after 59 minutes in GW17, then Jones and Richards missed out altogether and Evans was withdrawn at half time in GW18. The same can be said for Rooney owners who picked up just 8 points despite United scoring 10 goals over that same two week period. You calculated the odds right but the house still won.

This shouldn't have large repercussions on how you pick your team though. Rooney was an outstanding pick these past couple of weeks and deserved captain attention in both. Trying to predict when players kept rested for the odd game is a fools errand and unless we have strong evidence of a players' lack of fitness or an indication from the manager they will be dropped, it's better to start them and just roll with the punches when they are inevitably rested every now and then. Focusing too much on playing time will lead you off track and cause you to shy away from players like Dzeko or Sturridge, who have each been extremely valuable at different points of this season.

Expect more turnover this week, but take solace that if your players were rested last week, they should at least be back for this one (injuries aside):

Captain Picks
Once again the focus is on Manchester, though a couple of London teams are doing their best to make some noise of their own.

For United, it's all about the rested Rooney who has rediscovered his scoring touch of late and has hit the target more times than any other forward over the past four gameweeks (despite playing just half an hour last GW). Having gotten a short rest last week, Rooney looks locked in to play in this one and Blackburn look like just the kind of prey ripe for the picking. It doesn't get much better than this on paper so if you own Rooney, you're probably captaining him.

Rooney's teammate Nani is another solid pick though he's started the last eight gameweeks and may find himself in Ferguson's rotation cross hairs in the near future. Nani's value is hurt somewhat by his inconsistency, with 10 GWs of 3 points or less already this year. If he's your only United played and you're turned off the other options then he deserves consideration but that downside scares me off somewhat.

Though they face a trickier trip to Sunderland, City still provide a number of good options this week. You've got to be concerned by the fact that neither Aguero nor Silva have been rotated for a while, but as noted above, trying to second guess managers (particularly Mancini, is a risky business). It's worth noting that just four of Aguero's 13 goals have come on the road and he's managed just 11 points in his last four trips away from Manchester. FFS's ICT rankings backup this worrying trend and this damning fact would steer me away from Aguero until he can prove he can do it on the road.

Silva's road splits aren't quite as pronounced but he too has hit somewhat of a slump of late with three dud games over the last four. Until that run though, Silva had scored or assisted a goal in every game he had started bar one so let's not write him off just yet. Captaining him however does look like a stretch unless your United options reside on the defensive side of the ball.

A couple of down weeks have taken the gloss off Van Persie but his 8.4 P90 at home can only be beaten by Aguero (among regular starters), who of course finds himself on the road this week. QPR have really regressed after a solid start to the year defensively, conceding 15 in their last six road games. His GW18 line may have disappointed but his underlying stats tell a different story with no less than eight shots, five of which were on target. Anything like that again here should ensure he returns better results for his owners and he remains a great captain pick this week.

Mata and Sturridge have a great fixture for the week but they still haven't really demonstrated an ability to consistently deliver big point hauls and Sturridge has actually been better on the road this year. I like this pair to own over the next six weeks or so but the armband is a step too far unless you lack anyone in the above group or you think they will all be rested/rotated.

Ba and Bale are in great form and I wouldn't bench them against anyone but the stats say that Newcastle and Spurs will struggle for goals this week and thus they aren't captain material.

Gameweek 18 Preview

2011-12-24T17:59:00.000Z

Captain Picks
We have the deepest pool of legitimate captain options here. Insert Christmas cliche here!

Manchester is once again the place to be and both the red and blue side of the City enjoy a fixture this week as appetizing as, well, something appetizing at Christmas. With the home fixture, Rooney is the obvious pick for the week and United really seem to have turned the corner since they hit four past Wolves in GW15. 11 goals in three gameweeks have put the Champions right back among the fantasy elite and Rooney is obviously well placed to capitalise. Over the last four gameweeks, Rooney has 15 shots, 11 of which were on target to support his 4 goals. With Wigan coming to town, it's almost impossible to look elsewhere.

Rooney's teammate Nani has been in great form himself with three goals and four assists in the last four games. Of the ~10m midfielders on offer, Nani possibly has the best goalscoring ability and history, though a slight word of caution would be that over those same four gameweeks he mustered only 6 shots on target - suggesting that while he remains a top option, we should expect some regression in the future. In stark contrast to last season, Nani has fared better away from home (7.8 P90) than at home (6.7m) though that fact way lead one to conclude that relying too much on home/road splits may be foolish anyway. Nani is a great option this week and beyond.

Moving across the city (or if you want to be pedantic and annoy United fans, from Salford to Manchester) we find the City players with another good chance for success this week. West Brom have enjoyed a couple of wins of late, but they remain shaky at the back with nine goals conceded over the last five games and no clean sheets since GW8. Dzeko is still carrying a slight injury which gives you more confidence Aguero will avoid rotation again this week. With Rooney's return to form many managers seem to have cooled on Aguero with net transfers out for the past three gameweeks. However, it's worth noting that no one has more shots or shots on target over the past four gameweeks than Aguero and his scoring potential matches or exceeds anyone in the league. City's fixtures are a touch tougher than United's over the next month or so and it's a very close call to pick between the two for this week or near future.

I blew my City captain pick the last two weeks taking Aguero then Silva instead of Silva then Aguero which would have netted an extra 20 points. That highlights how hard it is to forecast who will have the best haul on a given day for City though when the opposition is weak you are safe with both. Having been subbed after 65 minutes last game, Silva has a good chance to start here again though Nasri, Johnson and Milner provide a greater threat than Aguero faces from an unfit Dzeko. I still love Silva, and haven't really considered selling him all year, but with Aguero's form and the chance of rotation I'd opt for the little Argentinian this week.

It feels wrong only getting to Van Persie at this point of the post, but that really emphasises the good options available this week. His eight double digit scores over the past 2 gameweeks are almost unprecedented as is the fact he has scored or assisted 20 of Arsenal's last 28 goals. Wolves are not a good road team (scored 6, conceded 17) and the reason Arsenal only come in 4th this week is due to their own unreliable form at home (14 goals in 8 games). That said, of the three sides who brought comparatively poor records to the Emirates, only Swansea managed to concede a single goal with Stoke and Bolton dismissed with much greater ease (Van Persie scored twice against both opponents). Given the added security Van Persie brings of rarely being rested, he might actually just pip both City players this week and rank right alongside Rooney as the top option for the week.

Elsewhere many will be drawn to the red hot Ba, who I have somewhat undervalued this year. Few are in better form that the Newcastle front man and while I dismissed him as a captain option a few weeks back, he at least deserves some attention here. Bolton have been generally terrible this year and Newcastle have been decent on the road, trailing only the top few teams in goals scored having already faced tricky trips to both Manchester sides. As a player I like Ba a lot, but as a captain option, at least this week, the elite options just look too good to resist. Newcastle can be inconsistent at times and while Ba's underlying stats backup his production, he is not guaranteed to receive the number of chances a Rooney or Van Persie will. He is, however, officially in the conversation for captain consideration.

It's a similar story for the Tottenham, Chelsea and Liverpool options, who all enjoy a good fixture but just don't bring enough this week to topple the current rulers of the armband.

I might not get to a reader's question post this week, but if you send your questions to @plfantasy I might be able to sneak a few responses off under the Christmas table. Happy Holidays everyone.

Gameweek 17 Preview

2011-12-20T02:13:00.000Z

Captain Picks
With the short gameweek I'm going to keep this brief. Your basic choice is to either captain your City players, or, if you are worried about rotation (which is a concern) then stick with a proven asset with a somewhat tricky fixture (ie Van Persie and Rooney).

City's fixture is just too good to avoid and if you hold Aguero or Silva it's tough to look elsewhere. As with prior year weeks I think Silva is the safer option, though Aguero probably has the higher upside. Aguero looked sharp early against Arsenal but drifted out of the game a bit as it went on (though I don't really understand why he was stripped of his assist). At this point I am leaning towards Silva, who appears less likely to be dropped (Dzeko must be due a start soon) but it really is a coin toss and I don't have anything concrete to help you make a decision either way.

Outside of the City stars you're left with Van Persie who had a rare off week at City but faces a Villa side who have conceded 7 goals in their last 4 home games. Arsenal are clearly a riskier play than City but that is somewhat offset by the fact that Van Persie is involved in an higher proportion of Arsenal's goals than either of the City pair (the Dutchman has scored or assisted 18 of the 25 Gunner goals).

You could also take a look at Rooney given the last couple of games, though back-to-back home clean sheets for Fulham suggests United won't have it all their own way. If you own him you will of course consider captaining Rooney, though I don't think United are quite at a place where you captain Rooney no matter who the opposition.

I omitted Ba from the rankings last week (by mistake) but even then he wouldn't have cracked the top 3. Players from the non-elite sides struggle to consistently deliver big scores and thus make risky captain picks. Even a fit Darren Bent and his 10 2-point games would therefore not have made this list, no matter how good the fixture is.

I might not get to a full reader questions post this week but if you send them to @plfantasy I will try and reply tonight.

Lineup Lessons: Gameweek 16

2011-12-19T01:43:00.002Z

Arsenal
Szczesny, Djourou, Koscielny, Mertesacker, Vermaelen, Arteta, Song, Ramsey, Walcott, van Persie, Gervinho
Subs: Almunia, Rosicky, Arshavin, Frimpong, Chamakh, Benayoun, Miquel.

No surprises in this lineup, and we shouldn't overreact to the lack of goals when playing a very good City side, no doubt refocused by their sloppy defensive work of late. Walcott owners will be nervous about how quiet he was but Arshavin looked pretty terrible off the bench and Chamakh got the nod over Benayoun. Competition therefore appears to be somewhat thin and with Gervinho set to depart for the African Nations in the the not too distant future, Walcott remains a (frustrating) option.

Aston Villa
Guzan, Hutton, Dunne, Collins, Warnock, Albrighton, Delph, Petrov, N'Zogbia, Heskey, Delfouneso.
Subs: Marshall, Clark, Cuellar, Bannan, Weimann, Johnson, Burke.

Guzan continued to deputise in goal with Given still out until the early new year. Villa have tough defensive fixtures between now and then anyway so it isn't worth making an investment there. In fact, this defense is probably one to avoid for the next few weeks. Agbonlahor missed out with suspension and Bent was injured leaving the team fairly blunt up top. Both should be back next week though with the next three being Ars, @Sto and @Che, I don't rate them too highly anyway.

Blackburn
Robinson; Nzonzi, Samba, Dann, Rochina; Vukcevic, Lowe, Dunn, Pedersen; Formica, Yakubu.
Subs: Bunn, Petrovic, Blackman, Goodwille, Roberts, Hanley, Henley.

A disastrous result for Rovers, and one which could see Steve Kean's reign of misery come to an end. Yakubu is an interesting rotation play but this team is going to really struggle to consistently create chances, with their goal this week coming from a long ball from Paul Robinson to a centre back in the box. Nothing is predictable here other than relegation unless drastic changes occur. Next.

Bolton
Jaaskelainen, Boyata, Cahill, Knight, Alonso, M Davies, Muamba, Reo-Coker, Pratley, K Davies, Klasnic
Subs: Bogdan, Steinsson, Robinson, Eagles, Sanli, Petrov, Ngog.

Do I have to comment here? The loser of Tuesday's derby with Blackburn may well be fired, at which point perhaps someone will turn the corner. Otherwise this is another team without attacking of defensive prospects and none of their players really warrant consideration, unless you're willing to roll the dice with Klasnic every now and then.

Chelsea
Cech, Bosingwa, Ivanovic, Terry, Cole, Romeu, Lampard, Meireles, Sturridge, Drogba, Mata
Subs: Turnbull, Torres, Mikel, Malouda, Ferreira, McEachran, Kalou.

With the possible exception of the suspended Luiz, this appears to be Chelsea's first choice team, though the big names continue to underwhelm somewhat. Sturridge has held his place for much longer, and with more consistency, than I expected and he really deserves more credit than we've given him. At 7.0m he is excellent value and you should be able to slot him in alongside 2 elite forwards, much like the similarly successful Ba. With so few 6-7.0m midfielders, this would seem to be the best use of money at the moment. After the trip to Spurs next week, the fixtures look great for 6 gameweeks and Sturridge looks well placed to capitalise.

Everton
Howard, Hibbert, Heitinga, Jagielka, Baines, Gueye, Neville, Fellaini, Osman, Cahill, Saha
Subs: Mucha, Bilyaletdinov, Drenthe, Stracqualursi, Distin, Rodwell, McAleny.

It's not that Everton are necessarily bad, they just don't have anyone who really racks up fantasy points at a rate to justify their mid-price (or higher) rankings. Perhaps the arrival of Landon Donovan will spark some life into the side but until then there's very little to get excited about here.

Fulham
Stockdale, Baird, Senderos, Hangeland, JA Riise, Ruiz, Murphy, Etuhu, Dempsey, Johnson, Dembele
Subs: Etheridge, Kelly, Orlando Sa, Gecov, Duff, Hughes, Frei.

As expected Stockdale came in for Schwarzer and, as expected, Fulham were able to keep Bolton at bay. Baird returned from his personal issues and represents the cheapest (and safest) access to this useful defense other than Stockdale. Going forward this team has some useful assets in Dempsey, Murphy and Dembele while Ruiz's class goal suggests he should be monitored for signs of life after the expensive signing has been slow to settle in.

Liverpool
Reina, Johnson, Skrtel, Agger, Jose Enrique, Bellamy, Adam, Shelvey, Henderson, Downing, Suarez.
Subs: Doni, Carroll, Maxi, Coates, Kuyt, Carragher, Kelly.

The majority of this team is pretty settled with Shelvey being the surprise inclusion here. This was a good result for Liverpool but from a fantasy perspective their points are still fragmented and with a fairly low offensive ceiling it's tough to see many of these options becoming elite fantasy players. Suarez's ability and underlying stats promise much but he continues to produce at a rate below his price tag. He still justifies consideration but Liverpool's fixtures aren't the best and the cheaper options like Ba and Sturridge are starting to nip at his heels.

Man City
Hart, Richards, Kompany, Toure, Zabaleta, Barry, Toure Yaya, Silva, Aguero, Nasri, Balotelli
Subs: Pantilimon, Lescott, Milner, Dzeko, Johnson, Savic, De Jong.

Finally a clean sheet from this unit, and a goal created and scored by the two of the best fantasy assets this year (hence the reason I tend to unimaginatively focus on the 'big teams' for captain picks rather than up and down players like Ba). I didn't think Nasri did too much to impress and Milner is probably going to recover that starting spot at some point in the future. Balotelli continued to look dangerous and it was his shot which led to the goal, all of which is going to conspire to limit Dzeko's minutes.

Man Utd
De Gea, Evra, Smalling, Ferdinand, Evans, Jones, Carrick, Nani, Welbeck, Valencia, Rooney
Subs: Berbatov, Giggs, Park, Hernandez, Young, Lindegaard, Fryers

Several publications had Smalling starting at CB here with Jones at RB and thus no place for Evans. Evans did however get the start and with Jones looking excellent in midfield you have to think that should be a consistent trend for the foreseeable future. Evans is an excellent option and his ownership will surely explode in the coming weeks. Jones looked good going forward this week and could develop a goal scoring threat to his game if he continues to play like this (and Carrick continues to support him well). Offensively things are a little less clear with Valencia once again looking good value for his place over Young and Welbeck being preferred to Hernandez once again. I couldn't tell if Rooney's header was brilliant or lucky but either way he has looked much better of late and is well and truly back in contention alongside Van Persie and Aguero as the new look holy trinity.

Newcastle
Krul, Simpson, Perch, Coloccini, Santon, Obertan, Cabaye, Tiote, Gutierrez, Best, Ba
Subs: Harper, Williamson, Ben Arfa, Abeid, Shola Ameobi, Sammy Ameobi, Vuckic.

It was good to see this unit bounce back with a clean sheet and they remain a good rotation option. Without S Taylor I don't see them as startable every week but there is certainly still value here, especially with the ever present and extremely cheap Simpson. Ba looked dangerous throughout and remains one of the better value forwards around.

Norwich
Ruddy, Naughton, Martin, Whitbread, Tierney, Crofts, Fox, Hoolahan, Surman, Morison, Holt
Subs: Rudd, Johnson, Jackson, Pilkington, Bennett, Barnett, Wilbraham.

With 7 goals Grant Holt is making it very hard for Paul Lambert to drop him. With just 3 starts in the last 12 gameweeks though, it's hard to recommend him over Morison who has also been a useful fantasy asset (and grabbed the assist yesterday). Outside of that pair, the midfield continues to be rotated with top fantasy scorers Pilkington and Johnson once again finding themselves on the bench. That and a leaky defense really limits what this team has to offer outside of Morison.

QPR
Cerny, Gabbidon, Traore, Connolly, Young, Faurlin, Mackie, Barton, Wright-Phillips, Helguson, Bothroyd
Subs: Kenny, Orr, Hill, Derry, Taarabt, Campbell, Smith.

Like Norwich, this isn't a bad team, but a fragmentation of fantasy points makes it tough to back any of their players given the overall lack of goals which are going to come their way (only scored more than once twice in the last 11 games). Barton is reliable with limited upside while Helguson is a touch one dimensional so his production is always going to fluctuate greatly. That said, when fit this is one of the more predictable lineups around so at leats you can rely on your subs making the starting XI if you opt to grab anyone from Warnock's side.

Stoke
Sorensen; Woodgate, Huth, Shawcross, Wilson, Shotton, Whitehead, Whelan, Etherington, Crouch, Walters
Subs: Begovic, Jones, Fuller, Pennant, Upson, Jerome, Palacios.

We may have seen the end of the Woodgate-at-right-back experiment. He was shredded by Jarvis from the first minute, getting booked and giving up a penalty (in separate incidents) before being hauled off after just 20 minutes. Huth could slide across there if needed but until we see improvements it's unlikely that this side will be good enough to consistently keep clean sheets and therefore lack too much fantasy value anyway. No changes of note up top with Etherington, Walters and I suppose Crouch continuing to provide some value.

Sunderland
Westwood, O'Shea, Brown, Bramble, Bardsley, Larsson, Colback, Vaughan, Richardson, Wickham, Sessegnon
Subs: Carson, Cattermole, Gardner, Ji, McClean, Elmohamady, Bendtner.

They are a tight unit under O'Neil but we haven't seen much change by way of clean sheets. They remain a spot start defense given the settled lineup at the back. There is little to get excited about going forward here and we should expect O'Neil to receive some funds for strengthening in January.

Swansea
Vorm, Richards, Williams, Caulker, Taylor, Routledge, Gower, Britton, Sinclair, Allen, Graham
Subs: Tremmel, Dyer, Dobbie, Monk, Lita, Moore, Agustien.

A second clean sheet in three away games strengthens Vorm's claim as an every week starter (though the four goals conceded to Blackburn in between those games suggests otherwise). Either way this defense remains great value. The offensive lineup is generally quite settled though Dyer did miss out this week. The usual suspects in midfield and up front remain good rotation options for the foreseeable future.

Tottenham
Friedel, Walker, Gallas, King, Assou-Ekotto, Lennon, Parker, Sandro, Modric, Adebayor, Van der Vaart
Subs: Cudicini, Pavlyuchenko, Bassong, Kranjcar, Rose, Livermore, Pienaar.

Bale missing out here was the headliner though his injury isn't thought to be something will linger for to long; he may be a doubt for midweek though. This was a good fixture and only a 1-0 victory is disappointing but Spurs remain one of the better fantasy sides around and with their double gameweek on the horizon, everyone should be starting to plan how to maximise their value in GW20.

West Brom
Foster; Reid, McAuley, Olsson, Shorey, Morrison, Scharner, Mulumbu, Brunt, Long, Odemwingie.
Subs: Fulop, Dorrans, Thomas, Jones, Tamas, Cox, Dawson.

Huge win for the Baggies this week but I'm afraid the fantasy options remain limited. Odemwingie is clearly the potential ace here and with 15 points in 3 games since his return from injury, there are bright signs for the future. At 7.2m he has to compete with Ba and Sturridge which looks like a stretch at the minute but Odemwingie has the talent and past success to justify monitoring his progress in the coming weeks.

Wigan
Al Habsi, Caldwell, Alcaraz, Figueroa, Stam, Jones, Diame, McCarthy, Moses, Gomez, Sammon.
Subs: Pollitt, Gohouri, Crusat, Watson, Di Santo, McArthur, Rodallega.

Jordi Gomez is in very nice form with 4 goals in the last 5 gameweeks but given that he has just 8 shots on target for the year, this kind of production is simply not sustainable. Like West Brom this was a good result but an inability to keep teams out coupled with a lack of firepower makes for a fantasy non-entity.

Wolves
Hennessey, Zubar, Berra, Johnson, Ward, Hunt, Henry, Milijas, Jarvis, Fletcher, Doyle
Subs: De Vries, Elokobi, Stearman, Hammill, Ebanks-Blake, Guedioura, Forde.

Jarvis tormented Woodgate early on and Hunt reminded us of his value, enhanced by his penalty duties. This wasn't a great display for McCarthy's men but there are some fantasy options here, though it is getting increasingly hard to try and predict which one to back.

Gameweek 16 Reader Questions

2011-12-17T01:32:00.001Z

@thatbensonguy I have 1.1m, looking to upgrade a DEF (probly Ass-Ek > Kompany) or MID, I have Brunt (5.8). What's the better move?
Spurs defensive prospects looks pretty sound over the coming weeks including 5 home games in the next 7 GWs (including the double gameweek). While I still have faith in City's defensive unit too, I would not be ditching Assou Ekotto at this point, and in fact rate him as one the better players to target. Brunt has been a huge disappointment and there is a real lack of talent in that WBA side. For 6.9m your options a bit limited. I guess I still like Ramsey and Walters but I'm not sure either are worth 2.0m more than the group of players on offer in that 4.5-5m range. If you can use the money elsewhere I'd go cheap, if not then I'd look at the aforementioned pair or perhaps Cabaye.

@Yitzeroo With newcastles defence on the down should I play Simpson this week, or have Morison up front? Will Norwich carry on scoring?
That's a tough call. The stats say go with Simpson but of course they don't account for S Taylor not being there. Swansea don't travel too well which is a boost for Simpson and Everton have been fairly stingy at home so I'd give the nod to Simpson for this week.

@Dafyddth I'm looking to play 3 from Enrique, Ekotto, Evans, Jones, Kompany in gameweek 16. Any ideas
Assou Ekotto is a definite play, and I think it's tough to drop Jones at the moment. Enrique has the toughest game on paper and probably misses out. You're then left with doubling down on United on the road or sticking with Kompany despite City's struggles. It's a really tough call but I think I might go with Evans and drop Kompany, which seemed unthinkable a few weeks back. City have scored 15 goals in their last 4 home games but failed to keep a clean sheet in any of those games. With Van Persie and co in decent form you fancy Arsenal to get a goal there while QPR may just buckle against United.

@NeilArrow A dumb reader question, from someone who hasn't been paying enough attention. What do you mean by "upside"?
There are no dumb questions here. And if there are, they're probably being asked by me! I use upside in two ways. Long term I mean that a player has sufficient talent to be good if the situation works out well for him (he gets more minutes, stays fit etc). More often though I mean in a given gameweek. Yaya Youre is a good fantasy player but his upside is limited in that he's unlikely to ever go off for a hattrick or 2 goals, 2 assists and 3 bonus points. Instead he just chips away with 4-7 points every week. Compare that to someone like Bale who already has 5 double digit games but also a high number of 2 pointers to his name this year. He has better upside but is way more boom/bust than Yaya. If you can find a player with consistency and upside, they tend to cost a lot of your budget.

Rohit Chochattu I'm taking my wildcard this week. Is this team good? Stockdale; Walker, Enrique, Evans; Johnson(Norwich), Bale, Nani, Mata; Sturridge(C), RVP(VC), Ba. Subs : Vorm, Vermaelen, Gower, Taylor.
The team looks great. As you may know, I don't really like expensive defenders so I probably wouldn't pickup Vermaelen though with so few midfield options, there is a better argument this year to own one and at least he does have a history of high production rather than just one season. I might also consider Assou Ekotto over Walker to save 0.5m as this might give you more flexibility if you want to shift Johnson or Gower around in the future. Other than those minor points though it looks great - I like it better than my team!

Vanilla At what point is 4pts worth saving 0.2M in budget? For example, assuming the worst-case, Schwarzer's value dips 0.1m this week, before a manager is due the next week's free transfer, and any of his worthy replacements would go +0.1m)
This is a really good question and one I feel like should be answerable with data but I'm not sure how to approach it. From my own strategy (not really based on facts) I would pay the fee if I had literally no flexibility in my budget and needed to make the move now. For example, I own Vorm and Schwarzer (at 5.0m) so if the only replacement option I liked cost 5.1m and I had 0.1m in the bank and I felt Schwarzer's value might fall, it might be worth paying the points, given that I really don't want to play Vorm this week. If I think he will concede twice he may only get 1 or 2 points and thus and thus the new keeper would only need a clean sheet to break even plus the fact that if I don't make the move now I won't be able to do so next week either. Other than that I'd still be reluctant to make the move as I'm not sure 0.1m or 0.2m here and there is going to make a huge difference (especially given that the free wildcard period is coming up).

Gummi What about going for Moreira (3.9, Vorm's replacement) and gambling on Vorm's ability to get points from saves on the road?
I get that you want to save cash but I'd prefer to get at least a warm body who can fill a role if you need him too. I'd therefore throw Ruddy or Cerny out there before I picked a bench player. I would still actually go with a ~4.5m guy.

Davefevs Vorm looks a very fine keeper, irrespective of fantasy football. Wonder if any big teams will look to make Swansea an offer in January?
If he arrived a year ago I would have pencilled him in for a move to United or Arsenal. However, despite what some think I think De Gea is locked into that United side for a while and Szczesny has shown enough to continue Wenger's trend of not spending big on a keeper. If Swansea were to go down he would almost certainly leave, possibly to another PL team, but if not I'm not sure how many teams want a keeper that would represent a huge upgrade from Swansea. Spurs maybe? It makes you wonder what Premier League scouting departments do all year really. It's not like Swansea plucked him from the Mongolian third division. I would think that keepers are one of the most translatable positions in that a good keeper in one league will, generally, be good in another. Strange that he never got a look from the likes of Arsenal who've needed a keeper for approximately 17 years.

Ratchet I would like to know which team has the least number of players that can be relied up for goals. Eg. Aresenal = Van Persie only whereas Spurs have 3 main goal threats.
Good question, and it ties into something I was thinking of posting: the percentage of team goals each player is involved is. It would be useful to know that, using fake numbers, Clint Dempsey scores or assists 45% of Fulham goals and thus may actually have more value than in a given week where Fulham are predicted to score twice, than David Silva, who accounts for 20% of City's goals might where City are predicted to score 3. I don't have this data yet, but I do plan to get it onto the site soon.

Ali Dia I love your blog! Need your input on this. I am undecided on who to captain this week among Mata, RVP, Rooney, Silva, Bale and even maybe Yakubu in a Blackburn side who score goals up against an obliging defence like West Brom..who knows what might happen. I also need to decide on who to start between Simpson or Brunt who has been a massive disappointment this season. Thanks!
Thanks Ali! To get onto my captain list you need to show consistent production and thus Yakubu is immediately out. I tend to lean on players at home all else being equal and that would point towards Silva. Van Persie is obviously in tremendous form but City away is pretty much as tough as it gets and his upside is surely limited. Bale also has a home game but he is so unpredictable that I'm a bit scared of captaining him. I would go with Silva based on his consistency and/upside potential.

Grounderz I can't decide who to start between Krul for Newcastle United (home) and Vorm for Swansea City (away) this weekend.
Despite the absence of S Taylor and possibly Colocinni, I would still go with Newcastle here. Swansea don't travel too well and Newcastle have a pretty potent attack at home.

Kavet Kerek What would you say to Demba Ba this week as a captain? Unless I'm blind I think I missed him and I'm wondering if he would be a better option than Silva. Silva is definitely consistent when it comes to grabbing points but due to the variety of sources that city scores goals he never seems like he can truly be relied on for a score along the lines of a brace. Thanks!
A couple of people mentioned Ba and it was definitely an oversight on my behalf. That said, his production is still pretty up and down and he's been a little bit boom or bust this year. There is certainly an argument to captaining him this week but I would still go for the proven consistency producer who can then also hit the highs fairly often. I'd probably slot Ba in after Aguero and Silva and possibly Van Persie but ahead of the rest of the group.

Vanilla What do you think of Landon Donovan joining Everton for 2mos in January? He was a firecracker during his last loan spell there.
I'm excited for Donovan in that (a) he's a good player and (b) he might reinvigorate this Everton side who is not without talent but has been pretty miserable this year. He should also provide another mid range option in that ~7.0m range providing the market makers don't go overboard with his price tag.

Cantona 808 First up, excellent blog Chris. Great to read an intelligent approach to Fantasy Football. Secondly, why don't you just consult the spread betting firms for accurate expectations of each team's goals. I think you'll find they're on the whole accurate or these firms wouldn't be in business. I'm talking about Sporting Index for example.
Thanks! I have thought about looking at betting sites before but the problem is that at the end of the day they are trying to make a market rather than predict what exactly will happen. The way the public bets therefore plays a bit part and so totals for 'public' teams are always going to be inflated. Fans of the NFL will know, for example, that public teams like Green Bay or Dallas (or the Pats of late) will always get inflated spreads as the public want to bet on glamorous teams. The same will be true in the Premier League in that people want to bet on Man Utd scoring a lot of goals. No one wants to take the under of bet that Swansea will score over/under 0.92 goals. There will be some value there for sure but I just worry that by using them I cloud the raw factual data with the bookies' view on how the market views teams.

WS For captain this week, Sturridge or Adebayor?
Of those two I like Adebayor. Chelsea have a slightly better fixture but Ade gets the penalty duties and Spurs are generally pretty good at home. Sunderland have been okay of late but I don't see a sudden and miraculous turnaround under O'Neil and they kind of quality at the back (particularly full back) to keep Spurs out all day.

As always, thanks for the questions and I hope the answers at least gave you some direction if not a direct answer. Good luck for the week ahead!

Gameweek 16 Preview

2011-12-15T05:03:00.000Z

Captain Picks
There was a time when playing Arsenal was a bad thing but, at least defensively, that is no longer the reality. Current and prior year stats suggest City will bag a couple this week, while current year only stats suggest they'll get three. With Santos, Gibbs, Sagna and Jenkinson all missing for Arsenal, you have to wonder how they will cope with the likes of Silva, Nasri, Milner or Johnson attacking them down the flanks. The expected beneficiary of that kind of exploitation is Aguero, who looks like the safest play this week. There's some concern given that he hasn't be rotated for a while now, but he only tends to play ~70 minutes so he shouldn't be too tired. He's scored 7 goals in 7 home games and City have totalled 24 goals over that period. It'll be hard to look elsewhere for anyone who owns the Argentinian genius this week.

The next best bet in the City side is Silva, given Dzeko's rotation and Balotelli's, erm, shall we say temperament (I love him by the way, but Mancini has suggested he will be rotated until he behaves which adds another level of risk I'm not willing to swallow). Silva has still only had four appearances scoring less than 5 points, and one of those came when he was late substitute. He is a great combination of safety and upside, which makes him almost the perfect captain choice. In fact, if there are even whispers that Aguero won't start, I would elevate Silva to number one on this list.

If there was ever a time to not captain Van Persie this is it. Whether or not he has crossed into the hallowed Ronaldo-Zone will be proven this week (where you captain him no matter what). True, City have not been the defensive force we anticipated but their goals conceded have tended to be consolation goals and they haven't conceded more than once at home for almost a year (4-3 against Wolves on Jan 15, 2011). You wouldn't bet against Van Persie on his current form but the upside is certainly limited and Arsenal aren't on the same level as those United teams which created so many chances for Ronaldo. If you don't own the City pair then Van Persie is a good option as always but he's not quite the top pick for me this week.

Arsenal's cross town rivals look like a better bet, putting Van der Vaart, Bale and Adebayor at the front of our minds again. Spurs have scored 15 goals in 6 home games, netting twice against everyone apart from City in GW3. Van der Vaart has suddenly gone cold after a month of hot form and he looked distinctly average against Stoke and was lucky to stay on the field for as long as he did. I need to see a lot more from him before I consider captaining him and as an owner of the Dutchman, I am starting to cast glances to the likes of Mata or old favourite Nani. Bale's top form has been more recent than Van der Vaart though he too looked ineffective against Stoke. With Van der Vaart no longer taking penalties, Bale might now be the better pick in this team though his 8 games scoring 3 points or less prevents me from captaining him unless the fixture is simply irresistible. Penalty duties are a nice bonus for Adebayor and his consistency makes him my favourite pick from this talented Spurs side. Ade has scored or assisted a goal in 9 of his 12 appearances this year and it's this ability to contribute in a number of categories (he also has 13 bonus points) which gives him captain value here. I can't put him in the elite group but if you want to think outside the box a bit, Ade makes a good unique captain option for this week (when I say unique, I mean as a captain, his ownership is relatively high at 20%).

With his recent play and Chelsea's uptick in form, Mata has ventured in captain territory, though I'm always more cautious when giving the arm band to players on the road, where goals are generally harder to come by and bad results more common (see GW9 @ QPR). Mata, and Chelsea, are sill a bit unpredictable for me to captain anyone there but I can now see a case for Mata, who is becoming increasingly intriguing in that ~10m range.

My instinct was that United players would rank as some of the better options this week but the stats suggest that goals will be harder to come by than one may expect. United are a side struggling for goals travelling to a QPR team who are struggling for form of their own. Will the side who thumped Wolves show up or will they return to their one-goal-a-game struggles once again? If it's the former than Rooney and Nani are obviously captainable this week. They have lost value as a defensive unit but QPR remain a useful home side and have only conceded more than once on a single occasion (against the all conquering City). I like this pair and United are always capable of putting a few past anyone but it's hard to take this side on the road when City are at home.

I will get to the weekly reader questions tomorrow so please post them below or @plfantasy.

Replacing Schwarzer

2011-12-15T01:54:00.000Z

Mark Schwarzer has been ruled out for anywhere up to 6 weeks with a spinal issue and given the nature of the injury, you wouldn't be 100% confident that those timelines will be accurate. In short, he needs to be replaced and given that a large portion of his owners will have been pairing him with Vorm, that move needs to be made quickly given Vorm's away trips this week and next (@New and @Eve). If you don't own Vorm then barring a total mismatch of fixtures, the Swansea keeper is your ready made replacement, and hey, you'll even get a bit of change.

So, who should Schwarzer/Vorm owners target? Well the defensive fixture rotation stats point to a number of options whose games will fit in nicely with Vorm (who can now be option 1a in rotation option rather than 1b as expected given Swansea's start to the season):

Tim Krul - 4.9m
Krul would have been the pick 6 weeks ago but with S Taylor out for good and Coloccini also sidelined, Newcastle's recent defensive struggles become predictable rather than unexpected. They have just one clean sheet in the last 11 games and don't seem to be showing signs of getting back on track. I don't see Newcastle becoming a top defensive unit anytime soon.

Radek Cerny - 4.0m / Paddy Kenny - 4.4m
Kenny should be back this week or next (you wouldn't want to play him against Utd anyway) though QPR have really declined defensively of late and I'm not sure Kenny or Cerny is the answer here.

Brad Guzan - 4.4m / Shay Given 4.8m
Given is still out for another 3 weeks or so but given that in that time Villa face Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea, I don't think it's worth making a move to Guzan. Whether or not you target Given is a question for next month.

Keiren Westwood 4.4m / Simon Mignolet 4.3m
Mignolet's injury is another one that is hard to predict and it looks like he'll be out for at least another month. Westwood has performed really well in his absence and while this team hasn't exactly had a revolution since O'Neil arrived, they have at least been consistent all year rather than following a dynamite start with a couple of months of defensive craptitude (I'm looking at you Newcastle and QPR). The problem is that Sunderland have a tough month of fixtures, which is the main time you want someone to fill in (you can always get Schwarzer back during the free wild card period).

Brad Friedel - 5.5m
Too rich for my taste but the fixtures are good and Spurs are a decent defensive side. Worth a look but I'm not sure he's worth ~1.0m more than the above group.

Thomas Sorensen - 4.3m
Sorensen isn't locked into this spot but until he messes up it would appear that the job is his to lose. Stoke's fixtures don't gel with Vorm's as well as the above teams and he has two road games in the immediate future, including a trip to City so you don't gain a great deal in the short term by making this move. I like this idea if you want to pick a match for the long run but assuming you're just trying to make it until your wildcard, you can do better in the short term.

David Stockdale - 4.5m
If you were happy with Schwarzer then you should be happy with Stockdale who is a capable replacement for the Australian. You get the excellent fixture this week and Vorm gets decent fixtures to cover Stockdale when he plays United, Arsenal and Chelsea in the coming weeks.

You really screwed us Mark. Of the players who fixtures go well with Vorm, none of them really inspire much confidence. With the above in mind I am leaning towards Stockdale as Schwarzer's replacement. This allows you to make the move now and protect yourself from the future price decline facing Schwarzer as well as capitalise on the good looking fixture this week against Bolton.

If you don't own Vorm, and have no intention of doing so, you can check out the other defensive pairings here, though I'd urge you to reconsider given Vorm's performances to date.

Lineup Lessons: Gameweek 15

2011-12-10T15:23:00.001Z

Arsenal
Szczesny, Djourou, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Vermaelen, Arteta, Song, Walcott, Ramsey, Gervinho, van Persie
Subs: Almunia, Rosicky, Arshavin, Frimpong, Chamakh, Benayoun, Miquel.

Djorou was the emergency right back and did okay after picking up a knock early on. This Arsenal side is very settled now and you feel that the likes of Arshavin, Benayoun and Chamakh are recalled only when a player absolutely needs a rest, rather than to simply rotate the squad. There is an argument for owning 5 of the 6 offensive players (probably not Song despite this week's assist). Van Persie's goal was unreal and while Rooney announced himself back on the stage, the Dutchman is still very much the default captain pick each week, all else being equal.

Aston Villa
Guzan, Hutton, Collins, Dunne, Warnock, N'Zogbia, Petrov, Herd, Albrighton, Agbonlahor, Bent
Subs: Marshall, Ireland, Delfounso, Heskey, Clark, Bannan, Weimann.

Aside from the odd change in midfield this is a very settled side and a goal for Agbonlahor will have many turning his way once again. For me though he isn't consistent enough to match the pricier options and I'm not sure he's a big enough upgrade over the cheap group to warrant investment. The defense is useful at best and I don't see enough of a distinction between them and the 4.5m defenders to justify owning them.

Blackburn
Robinson, Lowe, Samba, Dann, Givet, Salgado, Dunn, Pedersen, Vukcevic, Formica, Yakubu
Subs: Bunn, Olsson, Blackman, Goodwillie, Roberts, Hanley, Henley.

The lineup is more settled but the results are essentially the same. Yakubu can score while feasting on scraps and thus deserves consideration but the rest of this side look to be embroiled in a scrappy relegation struggle and seem to lack anywhere close to the kind of quality you look for in a fantasy starter.

Bolton
Jaaskelainen, Boyata, Cahill, Knight, Robinson, Eagles, Pratley, M Davies, Tuncay, K Davies, Klasnic
Subs: Bogdan, Steinsson, Muamba, Petrov, Ngog, Kakuta, O'Halloran.

The lone bright spot in this Bolton side (Klasnic) was stretchered off and we're at the point where Owen Coyle's job might be in danger soon. With Klasnic out there is zero fantasy value here. Next.

Everton
Howard, Hibbert, Heitinga, Jagielka, Baines, Coleman, Neville, Fellaini, Bilyaletdinov, Cahill, Saha
Subs: Mucha, Stracqualursi, Distin, Gueye, Barkley, Vellios, McAleny.

They defended well for long periods against Arsenal but don't look quite cohesive enough to become a top defensive unit, thus making the majority of their players overpriced. They managed just a single shot on target all day and none of the attacking players deserve consideration here.

Fulham
Schwarzer, Kelly, Hangeland, Senderos, JA Riise, Dembele, Davies, Etuhu, Dempsey, Ruiz, Johnson
Subs: Etheridge, Orlando Sa, Gecov, BH Riise, Hughes, Frei, Briggs.

There are options in this side but they ran into a Swansea side who are very good at home. Dempsey and Dembele intrigue me and the defense is okay as a rotation option, though it remains somewhat unclear who the first choice back line is here, now that the once reliable Baird is off with personal issues. We need to see what happens with Hughes and Senderos (as well as how soon Baird will return) before investing here.

Liverpool
Reina, Johnson, Skrtel, Agger, Jose Enrique, Maxi, Adam, Henderson, Downing, Suarez, Kuyt
Subs: Doni, Carroll, Coates, Carragher, Shelvey, Kelly, Bellamy.

It wasn't necessarily pretty but it was effective and Liverpool pick up another win and clean sheet. Jose Enrique remains an extremely good option though at 5.8m he isn't quite the no-brainer he was at 5.0m. The important attacking players remain pretty settled in this side and Suarez's goal was long overdue. My concern remains that this side seems to have limited attacking upside and so if you select a Suarez or an Adam, you really need them to score/assist a very high proportion of Liverpool's goals if they are deliver the same value as the (admittedly pricier) options at City, or even United.

Man Utd
De Gea, Smalling, Ferdinand, Evans, Evra, Valencia, Carrick, Jones, Nani, Welbeck, Rooney
Subs: Lindegaard, Giggs, Park, Young, Macheda, Gibson, Fryers.

Evans is the key man here as he slipped into the side to replace Vidic. Smalling of course played too but it remains to be seen whether Jones will slide to right back in the future leaving Smalling out in the cold once again. At 4.4m Evans becomes close to a must own player if he is going to be playing the majority of games for the rest of the year. Anyone holding Newcastle assets might want to target Evans as without S Taylor and with other players in and out of the team, that unit suddenly looks a lot less valuable. Rooney obviously played much better (his 2nd best of the season by Fantasy Football Scout's measure) and should once again be in consideration up top alongside Van Persie and Aguero for your elite forwards. I'm still nervous about this United side's lack of creativity sometimes but at least against the weaker sides Rooney and Nani (and Young) will be good enough to generate good produciton. Young being dropped here is somewhat of a concern as you normally think Valencia would be drafted in against better teams for his defensive abilities. Nevertheless you have to think Young will play, though I don't believe he is in the same class as Silva and Van der Vaart, and I'd still prefer to have Nani at this point.

Newcastle
Krul, Santon, Simpson, Perch, R Taylor, Obertan, Cabaye, Gosling, Gutierrez, Ba, Shola Ameobi
Subs: Elliot, Ben Arfa, Lovenkrands, Smith, Best, Sammy Ameobi, Ferguson.

Big changes at the back here with S Taylor done for the year and Coloccini also missing out. I don't want to overreact but given their recent defensive decline and the now permanent absence of S Taylor, this unit may have had its best days and it might be time to start looking elsewhere. They remain good rotation options but not the weekly starters they have been to this point. Ameobi came in here for Ben Arfa which was somewhat surprising though I'm not sure either of this pair were ownable anyway.

Norwich
Ruddy, Naughton, Whitbread, Martin, Tierney, Crofts, Fox, Hoolahan, Surman, Morison, Holt
Subs: Rudd, Johnson, Jackson, Pilkington, Bennett, Barnett, Wilbraham.

The rotation in midfield is a bit on issue for this side, with fantasy top scorers Pilkington and Johnson the men to miss out this week. We might soon be in a situation where Morison is the only offensive player to own here, if the rotation issues continue for that pair.

QPR
Cerny, Young, Gabbidon, Ferdinand, Traore, Mackie, Barton, Faurlin, Wright-Phillips, Smith, Bothroyd
Subs: Putnins, Orr, Hill, Derry, Campbell, Buzsaky, Connolly.

I was excited for this side's prospects but of the promoted sides they are easily the most disappointing. There are still some options here to monitor (Barton, Helguson, maybe Faurlin) but they have just one clean sheet since GW5 and have continued to struggle for offensive consistency.

Stoke
Sorensen, Huth, Woodgate, Shawcross, Wilson, Shotton, Whelan, Whitehead, Etherington, Walters, Crouch
Subs: Begovic, Jones, Fuller, Upson, Delap, Jerome, Palacios.

When everyone fit this team is easy to predict and can generally be relied up for decent returns. Etherington reminded us this week that Walters isn't the only midfield option in this side. When fit, this is a useful defensive unit but given his struggles to stay on the field I'm reluctant to bring Woodgate back into play and so Shawcross becomes the cheapest option, though he isn't particularly cheap. Sorensen is an option but he too comes with some risk that Begovic might take that spot back at some point.

Sunderland
Westwood, O'Shea, Bramble, Brown, Bardsley, Larsson, Colback, Vaughan, Richardson, Sessegnon, Wickham
Subs: Kilgallon, Ji, Meyler, McClean, Carson, Elmohamady, Noble.

Not too much to report here by way of changes under Martin O'Neil with Bramble and Wickham's return to the side enforced due to Turner and Bendtner missing out with injuries. It's worth watching to see what O'Neil can do with this side (particularly at the back) but in truth those changes will probably come in January with some new arrivals.

Swansea
Vorm, Richards, Williams, Caulker, Taylor, Routledge, Britton, Gower, Sinclair, Lita, Moore
Subs: Tremmel, Graham, Dyer, Dobbie, Monk, Bessone, Agustien.

This team has been by far the most pleasant surprise in fantasy terms with the entire defense (led by the best fantasy keeper to date in Vorm), Dyer, Gower, Sinclair, Allen and Graham all providing good fantasy value to date. For the immediate future I've said for a few weeks I like Vorm, Taylor, Gower and Graham and given the way this team is playing I'd be surprised if most teams didn't own at least 2 players from this side for the foreseeable future. Monk was somewhat of a surprise benching this week, though Caulker did open the year as the starter and only lost his job when he got injured. I maintain that Taylor is the man to own here.

Tottenham
Friedel, Walker, Kaboul, Gallas, Assou-Ekotto, Lennon, Parker, Modric, Bale, Van der Vaart, Adebayor
Subs: Gomes, Giovani, Defoe, Bassong, Corluka, Sandro, Pienaar.

A disappointing display from Spurs though it's unlikely that significant changes will come in the future. You have to wonder if their midfield is a bit 'light' with Modric and Van der Vaart in the middle of the park and so I wouldn't be blown away to see Sandro get some games when they visit places like Stoke again in the future, that would likely be at Lennon's expense who isn't really a fantasy asset anyway. Van der Vaart not taking penalties is a disappointment and it hurts his value somewhat but he and Bale remain two of a handful of legitimate midfield stars and deserve significant ownership despite this week's poor display (particularly from Van der Vaart). Adebayor's penalty duties push him into a category on his own (above every but the 3 elite options or Roonet, Van Persie and Aguero). I just don't see Suarez scoring as often given Liverpool's offensive woes while Hernandez is injured and Bent has fallen off the face of the earth.

West Brom
Foster, Reid, McAuley, Olsson, Shorey, Brunt, Mulumbu, Morrison, Thomas, Long, Odemwingie
Subs: Fulop, Tchoyi, Dorrans, Dawson, Jones, Cox, Scharner.

Hey at least Odemwingie started, and got an assist. If he proves his fitness and begins to play every week he has the talent to be a useful 3rd forward but aside from his this team looks fairly devoid of talent.

Wigan
Al Habsi, Stam, Caldwell, Alcaraz, Figueroa, Moses, Diame, Gomez, McCarthy, Jones, Sammon Subs: Pollitt, Gohouri, Watson, Di Santo, Maloney, McArthur, Rodallega.

Speaking of team's without much talent. Wait, Moses scored and got an assist this week! He's arrived! I'm not ready to call him anything more than he is, but he remains one of the better sub-5.0m options and his guaranteed minutes and talents give him a useful combination of security and upside. The rest of the continues to underwhelm and only a return to the side for the more talented, but unfavoured Rodallega or Di Santo will peak my attention here.

Wolves
Hennessey, Zubar, Johnson, Berra, Ward, Edwards, Henry, O'Hara, Jarvis, Doyle, Fletcher
Subs: De Vries, Elokobi, Stearman, Ebanks-Blake, Hunt, Hammill, Milijas.

It was somewhat strange to see Wolves go with two up top at Old Trafford given McCarthy's unwillingness to do so against weaker sides. Still, if this is a trend for the future it makes Fletcher very valuable given his impressive goal scoring record over this season and last. I want to like O'Hara and Jarvis but I'm not sure there is all that much difference between them and cheaper options from Swansea, QPR etc and so it's tough to be too excited about spending 6.0m+ on them.

Gameweek 15 Reader Questions

2011-12-09T22:53:00.001Z

@K0n0s Quick question for upcoming weeks, at 9.3 isn't Suarez the best buy now given his fixtures?
Suarez is a tough player to evaluate this year. He's obviously a talented player and his underlying stats (shots on goal) are excellent. However, he hasn't scored in 2 months and Liverpool aren't really a great attacking side at the moment. In a vacuum I do like him but if money is no issue I'd still much prefer to have Van Persie or Aguero and if money is tight, I'd go Adebayor over Suarez, especially given Spurs' great fixtures.

@SyncJS If you have Vorm and Schwarzer, who would you pick for next week? knowing Vorm is good at Home, still hesitating who to line up
Both are good options but in most cases I would side with the home side and that is certainly the case here. Swansea have been dominant at home and while you wouldn;t necessarily project that to continue all year, I'm happy to ride that bandwagon for now.

@MindOfANerd If you had to bench one of these players, which would you bench? Terry, Taylor R, Adam, Walcott, Sturridge, Jose Enrique? Also, what do you think of Lennon, Defoe, Yakubu, Long, Crouch and Helgulson?
I would bench R Taylor. I like Newcastle but they've conceded in their last 5 road trips and I don't think they are an elite, play-them-every-week kinda team. Terry would be the next casualty based on fixture alone but you never know with those top-of-the-table clashes, which can sometimes play out as low scoring affairs.

@iamnilov Donno about that.. I've been going with two elite fwds and 4 elite mids since last year its going rather well for me... [in response my admittedly facetious claim that you needed to have either 3 elite forwards and 1 elite midfielder or 2 of each]
Firstly, I wasn't being totally serious and of course there are a number of ways to succeed. Second, by elite I am talking about ~9m+ players. If you own 6 of them that means the rest of your team costs an average of 5.1m, which means you've done extremely well to find consistent value across the board. Those players exist (R Taylor, Jose Enrique to open the season etc) but there are very few of them in midfield and a reducing pool at the back, hence my presumption that you need to invest in at least one or two reliable defenders. You're right though, there are other ways to succeed.

@vinnycast27 Thinking Agbonlahor out Wellbeck in for the short term run of 3-4 games then reassess.Worry that Berba gets starts ahead of DW?
It's always a concern in the background but I'd be pretty confident that Welbeck plays the majority of minutes over the next month or so. Him and Sturridge are an intriguing pair and matching them with someone like Van Persie would free up a hell of a lot of cash to spend elsewhere. Of the two I like Welbeck more as he looks safer in Hernandez's absence but both have their merits.

@McShambles I have three players (Given, Hernandez and S. Taylor) injured and Graham doubtful for this weekend. Wildcard time?
You can probably just about get by providing your other keeper is okay and you weren't relying on Graham to play anyway. The focus of course should be freeing up the cash from Hernandez with Adebayor being the obvious replacement. You could of course go cheaper and then upgrade Graham, as we just mentioned in the prior answer.

@studs_up_tackle Read the forward thinking blog, where do I get the shots on target stat? Isn't on the fantasypremierleague site.
The stats are Opta stats and you can get them by becoming a member at Fantasy Football Scout, hence my reluctance to quote too many stats on this blog. It's very much worth it as you get access to the stats and members articles (though remember to keep reading here too!).

@Dafyddth Brilliant website! Do player prices fluctuate continuously as transfers are made, or just aggregated at the end of the week?
Thanks! The price system isn't too transparent but prices can rise midweek (sometimes more than once) if enough people buy them. I must admit I don't play the market too often to try and make money, but I believe that percentage change, rather than absolute transfers will have an impact on rises too.

John Fantasy With two free transfers for this week, I'm thinking about selling one elite mid (Silva, Nani, Van der vaart) and Graham, to buy Suarez (from who i expect points next gameweeks), and to buy some of budget mids (faurlin/gower). What would you suggest? Any other idea?
I'm reluctant to advise incurring transfer penalties unless you absolutely need to. However, to make these deals would involve leaving a lot of cash in the bank and you would have to drop a midfielder first and still have Graham out injured, so I suppose the 4 points might be worth it (though it still depends of your bench). As I mentioned above, I still like Adebayor more than Suarez but I do agree that Suarez will probably improve at some point. As for the midfielders, I like the pair you mentioned and I'd also throw Moses in there.

Raddz Currently I hold two elite mids in VdV and Silva as well as Bale, Pilkington and Dyer. I am trying to free up some room to bring in Richards and don't want to sell Aguero, and RvP so I was wondering if you thought that selling VdV made sense and who should I replace him with? (Walcott?) And which budget mids are good right now to replace Pilkinton as I am not sold on him right now and I already have Dyer. Would Farlin be good or gambling with Moses?
How much money do you need for Richards? Pilkington to Gower will save you 1.0m which could be enough? If not, then I would try and save money elsewhere in defense as the drop off from VdV or Bale to the ~7.0m options is massive. If you pickup 1.0m from Pilkington then I would consider moving any ~5.0m players you have to a Danny Simpson or Neil Taylor which should then free up enough cash to grab Richards (who I agree is still very desirable despite the lack of clean sheets of late).

Grounderz Hi Chris, my starting lineup for the gameweek is - Vorm, Richards, Jones, Vermaelen, Jose Enrique, Mata, Silva, Bale, Adebayor, Van Persie and Morison. Bench - Given, Williams, Dyer and Reo Coker. Which of these players do you think will most likely perform and which won't, given the fixtures?
Firstly, that's a great looking team. I do like Swansea this week so I'd consider giving Williams a game but I'd understand if you were reluctant to double up on Swansea defenders. Of your starters, Morison would of course be the obvious choice to miss out, though he's a decent play too. It's a close call.

Moe Vawda - whose a good keeper to rotate with Vorm? I have Al Habsi and I want to avoid Krul as I already have Simpson.
According to the stats, the best partners for Vorm are Krul, Given and Westwood. As you want to avoid Krul I would probably roll the dice with Westwood, especially given Martin O'Neil's history of having defensive success with his teams.

bigbang I have Hernandez and Tiote who are both injured with 0.4m in the bank. What transfers can I make? My full team can be found here.
Hernandez to Adebayor makes the most sense. Or, you could opt for Welbeck and then reinvest the funds in strengthening in midfield (though you probably wouldn't get enough to buy the truly elite options).

Ratchet What do you think of Smalling? yay or nay?
Not as a right back as I think Jones will slide back there and Carrick, Fletcher and co will retake their positions in the middle of the park. If I had to bet I would say Evans plays the most games in Vidic's absence but I would wait until the weekend to see what the situation is going to be here. Needless to say, if Evans is going to be a long term starter for United, he becomes pretty much a must own asset.

Amtosh Would you rest any City or Spurs players this week considering the matchups or just leave them in?
Probably not, though if you're defense is very strong you might consider dropping a City defender. Offensively these sides have dismissed better sides than Chelsea and Stoke and I wouldn't ever drop Silva, Aguero, Adebayor etc unless they were injured. City have obviously been disappointing at the back these past few weeks so I could see a scenario where you would drop them but I'd only do for another good option.

Shugobot What do you think is happening with Michael Turner? Do you think that his benching is a one game thing? I had picked him up recently as a slightly cheaper Sunderland defensive option to Wes Brown. With a new manager, maybe the Black Cats will be facing some rotation until they get something to work. Should I cut him loose the next chance I get?
The reporting was mixed but the Sunderland Echo suggests Turner missed last week's game with a slight injury and is a doubt again for this week. While Sunderland might face some rotation under O'Neil, you would expect Turner to start the majority of their games. It's a shame to not have anyone this week given the great fixture so if your squad is otherwise set I would consider doing Turner to Brown this week just to be sure.

Raddz Hey Chris thanks again for a great post! I was wondering what your opinion of Monk was as he is the Swansea captain and since he came back from injury he has played 90 mins in each game for a pretty good defense and he only costs 4 mill.
Thanks! I still prefer Taylor due to his assist potential but it's pretty close as to whether that's worth the extra 0.2m or not. So yes, Monk is a good option for the foreseeable future.

Jwch88 Should I replace vdv for a.young? Man Utd fixtures seem favorable in the next few rounds, however they aren't scoring many goals lately. Any suggestions?
I wouldn't make that move as right now, Spurs are a better outright offensive team than United. The fixtures are pretty close but Van der Vaart tends to be more involved in Spurs' goals (when fit) and I need to see more from Young and co before I rush back into that side.

I asked for some suggestions for the kind of info people would benefit from getting, and the below some of what I got back, so thanks for all those who mad suggestions. I will try and tackle as many of these as possible over the next few weeks.

Look at acquiring team value by playing the transfer market (James)
Impact of double gameweeks (Gummi)
When, if ever, to take a 4 point transfer hit (Ben)
How to deal with the inevitable upcoming bad weather. Are some teams more susceptible? Are there more clean sheet over the winter period (Prongs/Gummi)
Short review of each game every week, and players to select from each (Moe Vawda)
Update on attacking defenders and whether they are worth the extra investment

Gameweek 15 Preview

2011-12-09T02:21:00.001Z

One of my main regrets with this blog is my inability to keep up with all the injury news. I've tried sharing links from the local papers and the main sites but I just don't have time to keep up. Hopefully everyone knows where to look for the important news but I do want to point out that, for me, the best sources are Fantasy Football Scout's excellent team news section and the Guardian Squad Sheets which don't get everything right, but at least stop you making silly mistakes (signing a suspended player etc). Anyway, I guess that is my way or shirking some responsibility for the clangers I dropped last week (I forgot to mention the S Taylor injury and totally missed the injury to Sorensen). I hope though that you get enough alternative info to make the blog worthwhile. I'm pleased with where the blog sits in the world but I'm always looking for ideas to freshen things up so I open things up to the readers for any suggestions. What decisions do you struggle with every week that could be made easier? What do you want to see ranked? What stats to do want to see?

Anyway, let's move on to this week. For the first time in a while it's the red side of Manchester that looks to be the better pick for the week, both offensively and defensively. In years past, this week would be a total lock to captain Rooney but is he worthy of that status, regardless of the matchup? United have only hit the back of the net once in the last 7 gameweeks despite playing the likes of Sunderland, Swansea and Everton. Looking at FFS's ICT rankings, Rooney hasn't had a good game since GW7 and thus he's a risk this week. He is of course an option but this is one week I would push the stats aside slightly and stick with the hot hands elsewhere in the league.

And there's no hand hotter than Van Persie. I wish I had a database of all time fantasy scores to try and put Van Persie's current run into context. 7 of the last 9 weeks have gone for double digit scores including 13 goals, 4 assists and 19 bonus points, though it's hard to forgive those two 2-pointers (ha). Everton aren't a terrible defensive team but they gave up 3 at Chelsea and 2 at City at you be surprised if Arsenal didn't hit a similar mark this week. Van Persie has scored or assisted 17 of Arsenal's last 24 goals so any success they do have will surely be reflected in the Dutchman's fantasy line and thus I can't recommend captaining anyone else this week.

If you're not one of the 33% of managers who own Van Persie then you still have a couple of decent options. As we noted above, United's struggles make it tough to look at either Nani or A Young for anything more than a cursory glance. City have been simply outstanding on the road this year, brushing off United (6) and Spurs (5) while giving Bolton (3), Blackburn (4) and QPR (3) a few lessons of their own. Aguero, Dzeko and Silva all played the majority of the game midweek so while Balotelli could come in, it will likely only be at the expense of one of these players. Even then, he may be on the sidelines as Mancini has suggested he will be dropped in 'important' games which Chelsea away probably still counts as. Both Aguero and Silva have both missed a couple of games in the year so both represent some rotation risk but I'd be fairly comfortable giving either a go if you need a captain pick for the week.

Despite their struggles for clean sheets, City have only conceded more than the odd goal once in the last 9 gameweeks, thus making Chelsea players a huge risk this week. With a vintage Lampard or red hot Drogba you might roll the dice but while Mata has been good, I don't think he's good enough yet to justify playing him in such a tough fixture.

Equally, Spurs face a tricky trip to Stoke, though they've been extremely consistent all year, netting twice or more in the last 11 games. That of course brings Bale, Adebayor and Van der Vaart into play especially as Stoke have suffered a couple of uncharacteristic blemishes at home of late. Of that Trio I still like a fully fit Van der Vaart the most, though with that not a guarantee I'd stick with Bale or Adebayor.

Check back tomorrow evening (ET) or Saturday morning (GMT) for reader questions and be sure to post anything below or @plfantasy if you want anything answering (or attempted to be answered at least).

Forward Thinking

2011-12-07T01:32:00.001Z

We often talk about the different strategies we can use to assemble our team or squad and in the past there have been a number of different options. For a couple of seasons it was essential to own at least one (preferably two) of the holy trinity of midfielders (Ronaldo, Lampard and Gerrard) and play/captain them every week regardless of their fixtures. At other times, the difference between elite defenses and everyone else was huge, making it necessary to double down on United defenders (remember those 12 straight clean sheets!) or pair John Terry with Ashley Cole just to keep up. We've had elite forwards, must-own budget midfielders (Chaz Adam anyone?) and spot start subs, all of which provide a different number of ways to go each year (at least until the late stages when teams start to look pretty homogenous).

This year has been different so far. Good defenders are starting to dominate the listings and no one from either Manchester team or Chelsea come at a discount. The midfield is a similar story with just a couple of mid level players managing to crack the who's who of expensive mids dominating the leaderboard. Up top has been even less varied. We've had 5 or 6 weeks of greatness from Rooney and then Aguero and Van Persie along with a whole heap of players who have struggled for consistency all year.

So the strategies that worked through 14 gameweeks are:

2 elite forwards, 2 elite midfielder, 2/3 elite defenders and a bunch of hit and miss prospects
3 elite forwards, 1 elite midfielder, 2/3 elite defenders and a bunch of hit and miss prospects
Lose

I'm going to get to the possibility of using other strategies going forward in a later post (specifically regarding loading up on expensive defenders or forwards) but for now, let's focus on strategy one and, in particular, how to fill that final slot in a 2 elite forward system.

The Options
We're trying to find players to plug into a side with 4 elite mids/fwds so cash is going to be tight. Though I don't like using arbitrary cut off points, we're going to do exactly that and say everyone valued at over 6.0m is out. In truth, there aren't really many players who just miss out with Bendtner and I suppose Welbeck being the unlucky pair. We are left with 59 players who have featured for their sides this year. Now let's cut down population like a list of Arsene Wenger transfer targets.

Minimum minutes: 630
Players have missed time for various reasons but whether they are injured, suspended or simply dropped, they won't do you much good on the bench. Again, I'm not crazy about setting arbitrary cut offs but for simplicity we'll demand that players have played in half of all available minutes to date. We're also going to get rid of Di Santo, whose minutes came in the early stages of the season and has since found himself on the outside. That cuts 44 players from the list and we're left with 15. So long Grant Holt, Andy Johnson and Bryan Ruiz.

Average more than a shot on target per 90 minutes
We've talked about the correlation between shots on target and goals before, so without rehashing the analysis, in short, it's the best indicator of future goal scoring form I've found. The league average for forwards last year was a goal every three shots on target (well, 3.18) so if a player is hitting the target every week he should at least be on course for 10 goals or so on the year (of course averages won't quite work like that, but I like this cut off to weed a few of the non-shooting forwards out: I'm looking at you Heskey). So this means goodbye to Messrs Best, Heskey, Bothroyd, Long, K Davies, Doyle and Hoilett. And then there were eight.

The Short List

The above players have different qualities and no one really stands out above the pack. You can however split them into 3 categories:

In form: Yakubu, Helguson, Klasnic and Fletcher have exceeded their expected goals (xG, based on their shot data) by some distance and, on average, are due for some regression in the future. If, or when, that occurs is less clear.
Consistent: Morison and Graham are performing right where they should be and barring other factors should be able to continue this pace over the long term.
Underachievers: Rodallega and Dembele are getting decent minutes and taking plenty of shots but aren't seeing the results you'd expect. Dembele looked active against Liverpool but he is clearly fond of shooting from distance, which somewhat distorts his value here. Nevertheless, with 66% of his goals hitting the target, the law of averages suggests he will start scoring if he can keep taking shots at his current level.

How you make your final decision obviously depends on what you're looking for, along with how long you plan to hold them for. If you're looking to plug someone in for the foreseeable future, I would lean towards that consistent group and pay extra attention to minutes played and value for money (P$). You need someone who can come off your bench whenever needed and pick up those 2-6 pointers with consistency.

If you're looking for a shorter term fix, then the fixture list becomes an important factor. Based on the strength of schedule data, Klasnic and Dembele have the best upcoming games though Fulham's are very up and down making Dembele less reliable on a consistent basis. Rodallega, Helguson and Graham have pretty rough fixtures over the next 8 weeks which would turn me off Rodallega for sure though the other two are so cheap that you need to weigh up how often you think you'll be forced to play them.

With a number of good budget defenders, I would imagine that your #3 forward will often be your 2nd or 3rd sub and thus if you pursue this strategy I would favor the players at the cheaper end of the above list. In fact, i would target the two players in the 'consistent' section who just happen to be the cheapest on offer. Neither team are forecasted to score too many goals but this pair have proven to be heavily involved in their team's success and I like their success to continue going forward.

Let me know in the comments below or @plfantasy if you have any other specific strategies that need exploring. Next I will look at spending big on your front three, basically focusing on Adebayor and Dzeko and whether they're worth sacrificing a premium midifielder for.

Lineup Lessons: Gameweek 14

2011-12-03T15:26:00.001Z

Arsenal
Szczesny, Koscielny, Mertesacker, Vermaelen, Santos, Ramsey, Song, Arteta, Walcott, van Persie, Gervinho
Subs: Fabianski, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Djourou, Arshavin, Chamakh, Benayoun, Coquelin.

No real surprises in this side, who have really blossomed into a good attacking unit after a rocky start to the year. Aside from the defensive Song, the front six all deserve at least some fantasy consideration though I'd probably suggest that Arteta and Gervinho remain a bit overpriced at the moment. As always I don't know what to make of Walcott, who has turned in 5 straight quality fantasy performances but yet still frustrates anyone watching him regularly. If you can't stretch to the ~10m range though he looks like a decent option. Oh, and Van Persie is awesome, that is all.

Aston Villa
Given, Hutton, Dunne, Collins, Warnock, Herd, Jenas, Bannan, Albrighton, Agbonlahor, Bent
Subs: Ireland, Delph, Heskey, Petrov, Clark, Guzan, Cuellar.

We're seeing some rotation in this side, but not really of anyone who deserves much fantasy attention. This midfield is a quagmire of mediocrity and should be avoided. The top two started hot but neither have particularly good underlying stats and their early form always suggested someone due for regression. Villa's upcoming fixtures aren't bad so there remains some value there but it's becoming increasingly hard to justify Bent's high price tag.

Blackburn
Robinson, Lowe, Samba, Dann, Givet, Rochina, Dunn, Pedersen, Hoilett, Formica, Yakubu
Subs: Bunn, Henley, Hanley, Petrovic, Vukcevic, Roberts, Goodwillie.

I guess we can pencil Yakubu into the first team for a while. He's always enjoyed a pretty good scoring record and if he locks down guaranteed minutes he should definitely be on our radar. This team does have attacking potential but it's tough to see consistency in anyone here. I remain underwhelmed.

Bolton
Jaaskelainen, Boyata, Cahill, Knight, Robinson, M Davies, Eagles, Muamba, Reo-Coker, K Davies, Klasnic
Subs: Bogdan, Steinsson, Sanli, Petrov, Pratley, Ngog, Kakuta.

Where is this team heading? Cahill was unlucky to be sent off, but still, the Wanderers are leaky at the back and flat up top. The lineup has been settled to date but we must surely expect changes in the future as Coyle can't keep running out this team and getting no results. Either way, we need to see significant improvement before anyone in this team becomes ownable.

Chelsea
Cech, Ivanovic, Luiz, Terry, Cole, Ramires, Romeu, Lampard, Sturridge, Drogba, Mata
Subs: Turnbull, Torres, Malouda, Meireles, Bosingwa, Kalou, Bertrand.

Luiz's upcoming suspension aside, this back line finally looks like it might have settled down with Bosingwa on the outside looking in. The bad news is that all four options looks overpriced for a team who still have just 4 clean sheets on the season (though 3 of these have come in the last 4 games). Likewise, it looks like the front three of Sturridge, Drogba and Mata are the first choice line here, though you'd be surprised if Malouda and Torres don't yet have a role to play in this drama. In terms of value, it's hard to look beyond the well priced Sturridge and the somewhat consistent Mata (Lampard is too pricey for my budget).

Everton
Howard, Hibbert, Jagielka, Heitinga, Baines, Coleman, Fellaini, Osman, Bilyaletdinov, Cahill, Vellios.
Subs: Mucha, Stracqualursi, Distin, Neville, Gueye, Barkley, Rodwell.

It was a surprise to see Distin on the bench but not in the first team and that leaves Jagielka as the safest access to this defense. They've improved of late and the upcoming fixtures are sound, though they remain a risky investment. Up front this side looks as dull as ever.

Man City
Hart, Richards, Kompany, Toure, Clichy, Silva, Yaya Toure, Barry, Nasri, Aguero, Dzeko.
Subs: Pantilimon, Lescott, Milner, Johnson, Savic, De Jong, Balotelli.

Milner and Balotelli were the odd men out this week and with Mancini's recent comments about Mario's composure, you can probably pencil this lineup in as City's strongest (offensively that is, Lescott will presumably replace Toure going forward). A lot of questions this week are going to come about City's defense, who once again threw away what looked like a sure fire clean sheet. You have to believe Mancini will look to tighten things up at some point, but when the goals are flowing as they are, it doesn't appear to be a pressing priority (as illustrated by the lack of use of true defensive midfielder). I still have Richards as my number one defender for the year but the likes of P Jones and I suppose Terry are at least making us think. Hopefully Aguero appeased some of his owners who were worried about his lack of goals of late, and I thought he looked dangerous throughout. He remains an elite option and should be widely held.

Man Utd
Lindegaard, Smalling, Vidic, Ferdinand, Evra, Nani, Carrick, Jones, Young, Rooney, Hernandez.
Subs: De Gea, Evans, Giggs, Park, Welbeck, Fletcher, Valencia.

De Gea was a surprise drop here though by all accounts there isn't much to read into it other than a rest for the young Spaniard. Smalling presence is a concern for Jones owners, though we will all be happy if that consistently pushes Jones into midfield. It's somewhat surprising to see Jones take that midfield role over Fletcher and it's a nice bonus to think Jones is favoured at several positions by the boss. With Hernandez out, you would think that Welbeck becomes a nice little one month rental for anyone in need of a new front man.

Newcastle
Krul, Simpson, S Taylor, Coloccini, R Taylor, Lovenkrands, Guthrie, Cabaye, Obertan, Ben Arfa, Ba. Subs: Harper, Santon, Perch, Gosling, Best, Shola Ameobi, Sammy Ameobi.

I'm pleased to see Ben Arfa hold his place in this side, and he is talented to justify monitoring for the future (though he didn't enjoy a great game here). Elsewhere it was pretty much as you were and despite the poor showing this side remains a decent source of cheap fantasy value. With no clean sheet in 5 straight games though, it is time to start formulating a transfer plan for your Newcastle defenders and even Simpson, in case this blip in form is more temporary.

[Edit: I totally forgot to mention Taylor's injury here - thanks to ALM for pointing that out. He is of course a sell but I'm not sure I'd pile into R Taylor or Simpson here. Newcastle defenders are very widely held and if this form continues their price is going to collapse over the next few weeks].

Norwich
Ruddy, Naughton, Martin, Barnett, Tierney, Bennett, Crofts, Johnson, Pilkington, Surman, Morison.
Subs: Rudd, Whitbread, Holt, Jackson, Hoolahan, Fox, Wilbraham.

I'm not going to judge Norwich too harshly for getting crushed by an irrepressible City side and the goal for Morison underlined his credentials as one of the better cheap forwards around. With rotation in midfield and a lack of quality at the back though, this team remains somewhat devoid of fantasy talent.

QPR
Cerny, Young, Gabbidon, Ferdinand, Traore, Faurlin, Mackie, Barton, Wright-Phillips, Helguson, Bothroyd.
Subs: Putnins, Orr, Hill, Derry, Taarabt, Buzsaky, Smith.

A better performance from QPR this week, surely helped by the return of Barton who has an assist in his last 3 games. The defense remains unreliable though and only the uber-cheap Gabiddon looks like a good investment from that unit (along with perhaps Cerny if Kenny's injury keeps him out for a while). Going forward I think Barton deserves some attention as a reliable 4-6 point man (though a lack of bonus points is a concern) and Helguson continues to justify consideration as a third striker. As promised, I will get to this list of options this week.

Stoke
Sorensen, Woodgate, Huth, Shawcross, Wilson, Shotton, Whelan, Whitehead, Etherington, Crouch, Walters.
Subs: Begovic, Jones, Fuller, Upson, Wilkinson, Jerome, Palacios.

Sorensen kept the #1 jersey and is a decent option in rotation strategy for the foreseeable future. Woodgate finally got a start and limped off which is as disappointing as it is predictable. If you want to chase goals then I guess Huth is your man but I'd still take Sorensen and then Shawcross as the best access to this useful (but wildly inconsistent) defensive unit. Walters remains the only midfielder/forward I would consider here.

[Edit: I really need some sort of Stoke 'keeper blog as I once again somehow missed the fact that Sorensen was injured in this one. Pulis says it was a mild concussion so who will play next week is a mystery. Once again, this situation looks like a stay away. Thanks to reader Vanilla for the tip].

Sunderland
Westwood, Bardsley, Brown, O'Shea, Richardson, Cattermole, Larsson, Colback, Sessegnon, Dong-Won, Bendtner
Subs: Carson, Bramble, Gardner, Vaughan, McClean, Elmohamady, Noble

It looked like Martin O'Neil (who didn't actually pick the team) was going to inspire a good win and clean sheet for Sunderland but old fragilities shone through and Fletcher (seriously, all he does is score) punished them. We'll see how O'Neil changes this side, and presumably buys in January but until then I don't see a whole lot of value. Sessegnon's deeper role and Larsson penalty miss (and potential loss of duties) mean that their value took a hit this week. Not too much to like here at the moment, though O'Neil's success in the past (particularly defensively at Villa) make this a squad worth following over the next month.

Swansea
Vorm, Richards, Williams, Monk, Taylor, Gower, Dyer, Britton, Allen, Sinclair, Lita.
Subs: Tremmel, Dobbie, Routledge, Moore, Bessone, Agustien, Moras.

A lot of people on Twitter seemed to imply that Vorm and co conceding 4 this week was a huge shock, but this side simply do not travel well, as represented by their 17th placed clean sheet ranking. Swansea defenders are the definition of rotation players and it will be a rare circumstance where you deploy them away from home. I was pleased to see Gower grab an assist after pumping him up of late and I think he remains a useful bench player who has a pretty high assist ceiling with the way he plays.

Tottenham
Friedel, Walker, Gallas, Kaboul, Assou-Ekotto, Lennon, Modric, Parker, Bale, Adebayor, Defoe.
Subs: Cudicini, Pavlyuchenko, Van der Vaart, Bassong, Corluka, Livermore, Pienaar.

Gallas got a game here but only a fill in for the rested King so the bigger news is Van der Vaart starting on the bench, then robbing many of us of good sub performances by playing a paltry 18 minutes. Defoe's good form is starting to become an issue for Van der Vaart owners as it either allows Redknapp to drop him more often without concern of losing too much firepower, or forces Redknapp to play them both, thus pushing Van der Vaart into a deeper, more disciplined (and restricted) midfield role. With another big week for Bale, I think we're at the point where he represents better value, though it's still unclear who will ultimately score more points (I'd still side with VdV but it's close). Despite the quiet week I am still very much in on Adebayor who, with Hernandez injured, is now the best sub-11.0m option around.

West Brom
Foster; Reid, McAuley, Olsson, Shorey, Brunt, Mulumbu, Morrison, Thomas, Dorrans, Long.
Subs: Fulop, Scharner, Tchoyi, Odemwingie, Jones, Cox, Dawson.

Long is another decent budget option though at 5.7m, he may be too much for many to grab as a 3rd forward. Outside of him this team is devoid of much fantasy potential, at least until Odemwingie returns and regains his form from last season.

Wigan
Al Habsi, Stam, Gohouri, Caldwell, Figueroa, Diame, Jones, Gomez, McCarthy, Moses, Sammon.
Subs: Pollitt, Crusat, Watson, Di Santo, McArthur, Rodallega, Lopez.

Do Wigan even still play games? We all know I love Moses but one important point I often neglect to mention when looking at key pass data is that we assume there is someone else on the team to put chances away. Conor Sammon is not that man. Time of death: Dec 3, 2011 (at least until they get a new manager, sign some Premier League players or start playing the ones they have).

Wolves
Hennessey, Craddock, Ward, Berra, Zubar, Edwards, Hunt, Jarvis, O'Hara, Fletcher, Doyle
Subs: De Vries, Elokobi, Stearman, Johnson, Hammill, Milijas, Ebanks-Blake

There's a new advanced stat I wish someone would share with Mick McCarthy; it's called goals. The way it works is that when you play Fletcher, you score more of them. I have never particularly regarded Fletcher as an elite player but his scoring record is pretty incredible and he could certainly be a poor man's Darren Bent if only Wolves would play him every week. The fact that they went 4-4-2 is encouraging as it might leave room for Fletcher and Doyle but until we know for sure Fletcher remains a risky (and thus overpriced) 3rd forward.

Gameweek 14 Reader Questions

2011-12-02T04:44:00.001Z

WARNING: The below was written at 2am in a post-football coma, fuelled by Pepsi Max and Gatorade. I therefore apologise for any typos or nonsense but I wanted to get this out before the folks in the UK set their lineups.

@hvsauce
How do you rate Joe Allen of swansea? Looking for a replacement for Bannan.

Allen has proven to be a decent goal threat this year with a couple of goals already, though I would be somewhat concerned that they have come off just 5 shots on target (9 in total) - a rate which on average looks unsustainable. He also hasn't provided a great deal of creativity though does again have a couple of assists to his name. I like his ability to contribute across three categories, which has helped him avoid too many 2 pointers since earning a starting spot in the first team.

However, it's his teammate Mark Gower who excites me the most in that ~4.5m range. One a per game basis, Gower's 2.7 key passes leads all midfielders, not in his price bracket, but the entire league. He doesn't bring a great goal threat, though his 5 shots in 8 games aren't significantly worse than his peers, who can't bring anywhere near the level of creativity Gower does. On the downside, bonus points have been fairly strongly correlated to goals so he's unlikely to rack up big numbers in that category. I like Gower to earn more points over the course of the season, though it's probably fairly close. A bonus point to consider though is that Gower's production is likely to be more consistent (based on semi-consistent assists) so if you plan on playing him sporadically, that makes it more likely to get some returns when he's called into action.

Finally, I'd be remiss if I didn't at least mention Moses. He finally got on the board this week with an assist but it's his goal potential that continues to attract me. His 24 attempts for the year are the most for any player without a goal and if he keeps buying tickets at this rate, it is surely only a matter of time before one goes in.

@weheartfooty
Is it time to drop Aguero?

I'm not there yet, but he has certainly lost some ground of late. Rather than me spouting nonsense, let's look at the stats for the year:

First thing to note is how awesome Fantasy Football Scout's ICT index is. It tracks the points scored for the season pretty well despite being based on football data like shots, key passes etc. I would very much recommend becoming a member to access to this data. The second point is how far Aguero has fallen of late. Aside from his nice GW12, the past 7 weeks have been highlighted by a benching, a couple of dud appearances, a goal and an assist. However, we can see that his returns over these past weeks are tracking below his ICT index, which is backed up by his consistent attempts on goal over the past few weeks. His opening season form was never going to be sustainable, but equally he now seems to be getting a little unlucky. If you look at City's projected goals (particularly when based purely on current year data) you see a goal machine in which Aguero is an important cog. The only players who can touch his ceiling are Van Persie and Rooney and with Rooney struggling much more than Aguero, I still recommend holding Aguero for at least another month.

@pitt_AO
Hi Chris. I'm interested to hear your thoughts on the Spurs Holy Trinity of Bale, VDV, Ade. Who would you have, all 3?

I love Adebayor and the only reason I haven't found a place for him in my side is my belief that Van Persie and Aguero's ceilings are just too high to resist. I would probably concede that Adebayor will represent better value, but I'm not sure where in your team you're going to effectively use that extra cash. One emerging strategy would be to grab all three of those forwards and go extremely budget along your back line. Depending on your team value, you should be able to afford that trio along with one or two elite mids and then stuff your back line 4.5-5.0m defenders, allowing yourself the luxury of the excellently priced Jose Enrique (if you got in early). With City'd defense suddenly struggling there is certainly merit in this strategy, and indeed it's one I will explore in the next post on wildcard strategy. In a vacuum I still have behind Van Persie, Rooney and Aguero but there is a strong argument to made that he could be 4th on this list (Hernandez will run him close).

I love Van der Vaart and on a per game basis I would currently rank him second behind only the great David Silva among all mids. If you're sticking him in a team like the one mentioned above, his inability to stay fit becomes an issue as you're going to have to play a Moses, Gower or Dyer every time he tweaks a hamstring. If however, your first sub is someone like Walters or Murphy, you might have the squad flexibility to fit him in. I personally plan on giving him a few more weeks, chiefly due to my indifference towards the current form of the United pair or any other elite option, other than . . .

Gareth Bale could be a must own player. He can do everything: score goals, create, take set pieces and has the kind of game which is conducive to earning bonus points. He does however suffer from a bit on inconsistency. I don't see every Spurs game so it's tough to say whether this is an element of his game or just his fantasy production, but either way his feast or famine ways have continued this year. He does however compare well to Van der Vaart:

	Van der Vaart	Bale
PPG	6.8	5.8
P$	0.667	0.669
StDev	4.4	4.8
Pts >5	5	4
Pts <4	3	7

We can see that Bale fairs well in most categories but, as expected, it's his bad games which really hurt him. It might not be hyperbole to suggest that Silva won't accrue 7 bad games until well into the February. It's that inconsistency (and thus the need to play him every week to avoid missing out on a big week) which puts him below his teammates here, though I maintain that Bale is very much an ownable player for the year and a great option if you're dead set on loading up on forwards and can't quite fit Van der Vaart in.

Would I go with all three? I've nothing against that strategy other than the implication of the fact that that would mean probably owning only a single City outfielder or not holding Van Persie, which looks like a risky strategy at this point.

@GentleTweeter
I am considering a bold Modric for Lennon swap although have the funds to bring in either Bale or vdV what sayeth you?

While he's certainly a good player, I've not seen enough from Lennon in terms of production or underlying stats to suggest he's ownable at the moment. I agree with the move to sell Modric, who is an excellent player but not one whose immense talents translate well to fantasy points. As noted above, in terms of pure points I still like Van der Vaart but 1.6m is a decent chunk of cash so if you could use that money well I would have no problem in taking Bale instead. If you need to make the move this week then Bale would make more sense as he should shred whoever lines up for Bolton at right back this week.

@Colonel_Sharkz
Big fan of your blog! I am looking to ship out Bendtner... whom should I pick between Yakubu, Hoilett, Long, Klasnic, Graham or Doyle?

Thanks, I appreciate the kind words. I've been a fan all year and I've not really seen much to turn me away from Danny Graham. He does have a slight achilles injury so isn't a great pickup for this week but long term I like the value he delivers over the others in this group, who all look fairly comparable on paper. I might actually throw another name into the hat for my second pick with Steve Morison catching the eye at Norwich thanks to him tremendous underlying stats (his 25 attempts on goal rank 8th among all forwards, with everyone above him costing 8.5m+).

soulonice
Chris - where would you rank Adebayor as a captain choice this week? Behind/on par/ahead of RVP?

He's right there but I like Van Persie just because of his consistency. I would have no problem with anyone going for the red hot Ade though who probably has a better fixture given he is at home.

CDI
Has Ramsey flopped the show 1 too many times to be considered an asset at this point? With RVP for Arsenal cover would someone like Walters or Larsson make more sense? Which of these 3 ( feel free to ade any others) do you see scooping the most points over the next 5-6 GWs?

I still believe in Ramsey and I thought he took up some nice positions against Fulham. Given that he comes at the same price as the likes of Walters, Larsson and Murphy I think he still deserves consideration though I would understand if anyone bailed on him. Stoke look like they're going to struggle with the upcoming fixtures while I'd be nervous about bringing in too many Sunderland players until we know who will takeover and how they will get the team to play. You should certainly consider options to bring in for Ramsey though I don't think many of the available options are definitely better so I might just either stay put or downgrade to a cheaper option and use the extra cash elsewhere.

Tungsten For The Chosen One
With Bruce Shown the door, what fate lies to The Black Cats lineup? Are their fantasy assets worth holding? ie Bendy, Larsson, Sess

I wasn't crazy about the Sunderland players before Bruce's departure and I'm even less enthusiastic now. I was interested in Sessegnon who stands to lose the most as the new manager might push him deeper into a midfield role. I would be targeting selling Bendtner anyway but I guess the other two remain ownable given the lack of ~6.0m midfielders noted above. I certainly wouldn't be buying anyone though.

James
Personally, I don't like having RvP as captain. Most in my league will have him as captain so I'd rather take a gamble on another striker to make up some points.

It's a fair point and one I will tackle in a future wildcard post regarding differentiation. My philosophy (at least until the final stretch of the season) is to pick the players you think will score the most points and not pay too much attention to who owns who. Sure, if you like two players around the same amount and one is significantly less held, it is advisable to try and be different but I wouldn't let that thinking preclude you from captaining the form player in the league right now.

Raddz
Thank you chris for another great article!
I have a few questions.
1) Do you think that for the upcoming game week it would be a better move to replace VdV with someone like Bale (or someone like him if you have a better suggestion) or to replace Aguero with Adebayor?
2) Is Sinclair worth the extra money over the other midfielders at Swansea like Dyer or Allen? which of them would you reccomend?
3) Also is Pilkington worth the extra cash over other mids at Norwich?

Thanks Raddz, I appreciate the feedback.
1) I like all four players your targeting but if you want to make a move it makes sense to make sure you get players on the field so moving Van der Vaart makes sense. I have faith in Aguero, though he does represent a small rotation risk this week, and you could certainly see City putting a couple past Norwich this week.
2) As noted above, I actually like Gower most in Swansea's midfield but Allen and even Dyer are options too. Sinclair brings the bonus of penalty duties but I don't believe the premium is worth it, especially given that Swansea players seem to be lending themselves to rotation assets rather than every week players.
3) I'm struggling to get a handle on this Norwich midfield, to the point where I'm not sure any of them represent good value. Hoolahan and Fox impressed early on and now Johnson and Pilkington have emerged as the better prospects. Based on the team's play and their individual stats, I don't believe any of these players has 6-10 goal potential and you're really hoping to just play the odds and benefit from the odd goal or assist when you bring them off the bench. So, while Pilkington probably is the better option, I only really like this group as 3rd sub potential and thus I'd stick with the 4.5m group (personally favouring Johnson thanks to his superior shots on goal data).

Gummi at fantasyformation.com
Considering Everton's upcoming fixtures would you consider Baines for the short term?
I'm actually looking for someone to spend money on, and he popped in my mind.
Does your analysis on attacking defenders still hold and would you consider Baines not worth it?

If he's ever going to pay off, it's now, given Everton's favorable fixtures. However, while I love his offensive ability, Everton just aren't keeping clean sheets (just two all year) and thus even a couple of assists for Baines will likely only ever amount to just another mundane clean sheet for a Jose Enrique or Mich Richards (who themselves have some attacking ability). If you have cash lying around literally doing nothing, the next 4 games are good enough that I would consider Baines and I guess if you're using your wildcard you could grab him now with the intention of ditching him in 4 or 5 weeks, but unless you fall into those two niches, I still find him too pricey for anything more than a one or two week loan.

Grounderz
Chris, I'm replacing Van der Vaart this gameweek. I have a few options in mind but haven't got quite around who to pursue.
I'm thinking of Mata. Do you think that's a good idea given Newcastle's form of late and Chelsea's depressing form? Or would you prefer Walcott from Arsenal with a good gameweek or somebody else that you might think be a really good one this gameweek?
Currently, my middies are Van der Vaart, Silva, Bale, Dyer and Faurlin. I welcome any other suggestions. Thanks.

Firstly, I really like your midfield with Dyer and Faurlin being a couple of underrated squad men who should deliver some value over the course of the season. My first choices to replace Van der Vaart would possibly have been Silva and Bale so we're clearly on the same page there. After that group you're left with the United wingers, Mata, Walcott or Adam. Chelsea have a decent run of games coming up and Mata seems to have aligned himself as the only reliable option in that Chelsea side (who may be in poor form but remain talented nonetheless). He is taking a lot of set pieces and is heavily involved in their play, which probably gives him an upside unmatched by the other options in this bracket.

United also have some decent fixtures but they're in worse goal scoring form than Chelsea. I am reluctant to buy either at the moment as while you want to buy low on assets, it isn't clear if their form has bottomed out yet.

I love Adam's consistency and ability to deliver points across all categories but he lacks the upside of the elite players in this group and doesn't carry the kind of goalscoring threat Mata or Young bring to the table. Liverpool's tricky games also lead me in another direction. Walcott is starting to show some of the consistency he has always lacked and I might be interested in a couple of weeks but for now, I am too reluctant to be sucked in again only for him to rattle off four 2-pointers in a row.

So it looks like Mata is the pick here, though I can't say I'm wholly confident in that assertion. I was excited to see the Spaniard in the Premier League but he has been good, but not great, to date. However, he is delivering decent returns without hitting top form and that proven form along with a dynamite upside makes him a worthy investment.

Thanks for all the questions this week - always a good, thought-provoking read to see the kind of things people are thinking about. If you post follow up comments below, I will try and get to them at work tomorrow (or my boss is reading, when I get home).

Gameweek 14 Preview

2011-12-01T01:36:00.001Z

I wouldn't say that I'm superstitious, but I'm definitely stitious. Gameweek 13 was unlucky for most of us with Adebayor, Kompany and Terry being the only widely held players to have really big weeks. Aguero, Van Persie and Rooney managed just an assist between them despite playing for the majority of their respective games. Just like their real life teams, you need to quickly shake off a down week and not get too bogged down with the odd blank from our stars. Of those three, I am most concerned about Rooney, purely because of the way he is being deployed, though I thought he was excellent in the first half against Newcastle and will bounce back soon. I would however fully condone holding someone else while we wait for that to happen, particularly given the somewhat tricky trip to Villa Park this week.

The form of City's defense is starting to become somewhat of a concern with Lescott's own goal making it 6 straight without a clean sheet. They aren't surrendering any more shots than earlier in the year (aside from the 7 they gave up this week) though looking around at the other teams in the league, I wouldn't suggest this is a particularly reliable stat to rely on (Everton have conceded the 3rd least shots this year). I'm certainly not ready to give up on them yet and this week's fixture looks too good to pass on.

Carling/Euro Cup Clues

All the big teams played in midweek in the Carling Cup and we can probably draw some inferences from their team selections:

Fabio, Rafael and Smalling all played for Man Utd, which should make a clear path for Phil Jones to return this week. It is looking increasingly safe to suggest Jones has his hands firmly on that right back slot for the long haul. Valencia also played in this one which should be music to the ears of Young and Nani owners.
Dzeko, Nari and A Johnson all started for Man City and played the full 90 minutes against Arsenal. That would have been great news for Aguero, except he came on after just half an hour, so may also face the bench this week. If I had to guess I'd say Aguero gets a game alongside Silva and Balotelli but I have long since given up trying to predict the way Mancini's mind works.
Koscielny and Djorou both played for Arsenal which brings into question who will start this week at right. Either way I'm not sure you want a piece of that defense, other than the lively looking Santos.
Liverpool played a pretty strong side at Chelsea so I'm not reading too much into their team selection. That said, the resting of Adam alongside Suarez tells me he is very much considered to be an essential part of that side.
Chelsea also played some first teamers and with Luiz, Bosingwa and Alex all starting, we can't get much of a jump on what AVB will do this week. Torres playing up top for 90 minutes however, suggests that Drogba and Sturridge might get another game together up front this week.
Defoe started for Spurs in their Euro second-team, though that might be an indication of a lack of other options so I wouldn't take that as a guarantee that Van der Vaart will play this week. In fact, the signs seem to suggest the Dutchman will sit again this week. Hopefully he will tweet in time for us to make transfers accordingly.

Captain Picks

With Van der Vaart possibly sidelined and the out-of-form Man Utd facing a tricky trip to Villa we are once again left with a choice between the Man City lottery, the great Robin Van Persie and a couple of other familiar names.

There really isn't too much to say this week given the unpredictability of Mancini's first team choices. Given the way Wigan have defended this year, I am leaning towards Van Persie as the main man this week, as he is almost sure to start (though is probably due a week off at some point) and is in as good form as anyone in the league. Van Persie has spanked weaker sides like Norwich, West Brom, Stoke, Sunderland and Bolton already this year and so another big game against Wigan looks like a decent bet.

When in doubt with City, I usually lean towards Silva who seems to be rotated less and can escape 2 pointers thanks to his ability to contribute points in every category. With Aguero and Dzeko both getting substantial minutes midweek, I would probably go that way again this week.

A lot of people are getting excited about Hernandez again, but I must admit I'm not sure I'm totally there just yet. His underlying shot stats aren't impressive and United have failed to score more than a single goal in 6 straight gameweeks, limiting Hernandez's chances for a big haul. I would rate him ahead of Rooney in the short term based on price alone but I'm not willing to elevate him into that elite group for the medium-long term until I see United return to top form and Hernandez share in the spoils.

Spurs have a great looking fixture and no one is better placed to exploit it right now than Adebayor; perhaps the second best form player after Van Persie. What excites me as much as the goals he's scored are the assists (6) and bonus points (13) which differentiate Adebayor from being just another one tricky pony (aka Darren Bent). Based on current and prior year data, Spurs have a great set of upcoming fixtures and with Defoe out of favour and Van der Vaart struggling to stay healthy, Adebayor looks the best way to exploit those games. At just 8.9m he represents a significant discount over the elite forwards and I would personally put him ahead of Hernandez (at least in terms of value if not pure production). He can be streaky (as can Spurs) but if you're tiring of City's revolving door or Rooney's deep deployment, I would make Ade my number one target.

I normally shy away from captaining defenders but with the way he's been playing of late and given the fixture, Micah Richards at least deserves a mention here. With too many goals conceded of late, you wonder if Mancini might go a bit more defensive this week, putting an emphasis on keeping Norwich out this week. Richards brings a bonus of having good attacking credentials and makes a nice option for anyone not holding many of the big names mentioned above.

Please post any comments or questions below or at @plfantasy and I'll try and get as many as possible answered before this week's deadline.

Lineup Lessons: Gameweek 13

2011-11-26T15:21:00.001Z

Arsenal
Szczesny, Djourou, Mertesacker, Vermaelen, Santos, Song, Ramsey, Arteta, Walcott, van Persie, Arshavin.
Subs: Fabianski, Diaby, Koscielny, Frimpong, Gervinho, Chamakh, Benayoun.

Djorou over Koscielny made sense at right back given his impressive physical capability, though I'm still not personally convinced this unit can be relied upon given their lofty price tags. Gervinho impressed off the bench and I was surprised to see him there in the first place. I had hoped he might push on to become a useful asset but without guaranteed minutes he joins a long list of overpriced forwards. Diaby returned from injury but didn't look particularly sharp and I wouldn't expect him to get back in the first team next week. That situation is worth monitoring for Ramsey owners.

Aston Villa
Given, Hutton, Dunne, Collins, Warnock, N'Zogbia, Delph, Herd, Bent, Agbonlahor, Heskey
Subs: Guzan, Jenas, Albrighton, Delfouneso, Clark, Cuellar, Bannan.

Not too much note in terms of the starting lineup, which is one of the more reliable in the league. Back-to-back zeros must be a concern for Agbonlahor and Bent owners, and I'd maintain that while this pair have played well, their underlying stats are not great and I'm not sure if it isn't time to move on, particularly from the pricey Bent. On the plus side, the Villains were able to log they 4th clean sheet of the year and have done a good job at keeping out the weaker sides. Warnock and Hutton remain borderline squad men.

Blackburn
Robinson, Lowe, Hanley, Dann, Givet, Rochina, Nzonzi, Pedersen, Hoilett, Formica, Yakubu
Subs: Bunn, Petrovic, Blackman, Goodwillie, Vukcevic, Roberts, Henley.

Granted, they have some injuries, but this is a pretty miserable team. Hoilett remains a borderline asset but elsewhere there is very little else to like. Perhaps Samba will finally move to a better team and develop some value at 5.4m.

Bolton
Jaaskelainen, Wheater, Cahill, Knight, Robinson, M Davies, Muamba, Reo-Coker, Eagles, Klasnic, K Davies
Subs: Bogdan, Steinsson, Sanli, Petrov, Pratley, Kakuta, O'Halloran.

It pains me to say it, but this Bolton side may be in the same boat as their Lancashire rivals. Eagles and Klasnic have had their good days but their production is so unpredictable that it makes it hard to play them sporadically. It's hard to judge the team too harshly based on a game in which they played for long periods with 10-men but it's hard to see much value here. Like Samba, G Cahill's value may only be rescued by a move away from the Reebok.

Chelsea
Cech, Ivanovic, Luiz, Terry, Cole, Ramires, Meireles, Romeu, Mata, Sturridge, Drogba
Subs: Turnbull, Lampard, Torres, Mikel, Malouda, Bosingwa, Kalou.

Now even Lampard isn't safe! Villas-Boas may well be the least fantasy-friendly manager in the league (Mancini runs him close though) and despite the big win it's hard to find anyone to love in this expensive Chelsea side. Mata is one of the few players to be locked into this lineup and his big performance (and set piece duties) underline his potential. I'd love to recommend Sturridge but you have to accept you're going to get a 1 pointers from him, while the back line either looks too pricey (Terry, Cole) or too inconsistent (everyone else). My advice remains to monitor Sturridge, own Mata is you're tired of the Nani / Young / Van der Vaart group and keep away from the defense until someone emerges as a reliable starter (for a reasonable price).

Everton
Howard, Hibbert, Jagielka, Heitinga, Baines, Coleman, Fellaini, Osman, Bilyaletdinov, Cahill, Saha.
Subs: Mucha, Stracqualursi, Gueye, Barkley, Vellios, Mustafi, McAleny.

The side looks settled but the goals seem to come from different sources every week. Everton have 5 players who've netted more than once this year yet Drenthe and Rodwell didn't play while Vellios started on the bench as usual. Only Baines and Jagielka were in the starting lineup, though my feelings on that pair do not need repeating. This team don't score many but yet don't keep clean sheets (this was just the 2nd all year) making it tough to find much value.

Fulham
Schwarzer, Baird, Hangeland, Senderos, Riise, Etuhu, Murphy, Dempsey, Ruiz, Dembele, Zamora.
Subs: Etheridge, Johnson, Kasami, Gecov, Hughes, Frei, Briggs.

In the weekly Fulham defense rotation, it was Hughes who missed out this week. I'd still suggest that Baird is the pick here with Senderos only suitable for those desperate for sub-4.5m pickup. There are options here who are guaranteed minutes and a defensive display at Arsenal isn't the best game to judge them in. Dempsey and co will have better days ahead.

Liverpool
Reina, Johnson, Skrtel, Agger, Jose Enrique, Henderson, Lucas, Adam, Downing, Suarez, Kuyt
Subs: Doni, Carroll, Maxi, Coates, Spearing, Carragher, Kelly.

As expected, Downing came back in for Maxi, and we might in the situation where Maxi will become the 'away' specialist. Liverpool played their part in an entertaining game, though I still struggle to see where consistent fantasy points are coming from in this side. Though his assist was clearly lucky, Adam remains my pick of the Liverpool side along with the slightly frustrating Suarez. I say frustrating because the underling stats suggest he should be scoring more, but watching him I don't really get the impression he is suddenly going to explode for a great scoring run. I'm sure more goals will come but he isn't in the top class right now and I struggle to rank him ahead of Adebayor.

Man City
Hart, Richards, Kompany, Lescott, Clichy, Toure Yaya, Barry, Milner, Silva, Nasri, Aguero
Subs: Pantilimon, Zabaleta, Dzeko, Johnson, Toure, De Jong, Balotelli.

This is probably Mancini's first choice starting lineup, with perhaps Nasri the most likely to miss out regularly. The problem this week was not guessing Mancini's lineup but their lack of production. Lescott's own goal made it 6 straight games without a clean sheet, and you wonder if Mancini will react to that and move to a more defensive approach, perhaps recalling De Jong in the middle. I am not worried about Richards and Kompany just yet but we are getting to a position where owning a City defender is no longer a no brainer (I still think it is, but we're getting closer). I thought Aguero was extremely quiet and he is not in must-own territory. I still hold him in a separate elite category with Rooney and Van Persie though.

Man Utd
De Gea, Fabio Da Silva, Vidic, Ferdinand, Evra, Nani, Carrick, Giggs, Young, Rooney, Hernandez
Subs: Lindegaard, Evans, Smalling, Park, Valencia, Macheda, Gibson.

P Jones was an unexpected drop here, though for his owners it might be a sign that he is the first choice right back for the foreseeable future and this was merely a one week rest. The fact that Fabio, rather than Smalling, got the start might be a another plus for Jones. Rooney and Hernandez started the game really well but then Rooney started dropping deeper and United lost their edge until Newcastle equalised and then somehow held on. I maintain that Rooney will be a top fantasy asset at some point but this team looks disjointed at the moment and seems unable to sustain high level play for an extended period of time. Hernandez got the lucky goal but I'm not ready to put him in that elite category just yet and I see him more alongside Adebayor than Van Persie. Nani was almost non-existent in this game and while Young started well, he too faded as the game went on. I'm not out on either player just yet but a fully fit Van der Vaart and Silva look better than this pair for now, with Mata emerging as a threat too.

Newcastle
Krul, Simpson, S Taylor, Coloccini, R Taylor, Obertan, Cabaye, Guthrie, Gutierrez, Ben Arfa, Ba
Subs: Elliot, Santon, Lovenkrands, Perch, Gosling, Shola Ameobi, Sammy Ameobi.

This is a very settled lineup and it continues to provide good value for fantasy owners. Ba is a legit option up top and with the top midfielders starting to struggle a bit, there's a good argument to making him you're third striker and sacrificing some expense in midfield to make it happen. After Chelsea next week, Newcastle have four good fixtures so plan to hold onto Simpson, Taylor and co for the foreseeable future.

Norwich
Ruddy, Martin, Barnett, De Laet, Tierney, Pilkington, Johnson, Crofts, Surman, Morison, Jackson.
Subs: Rudd, Holt, Hoolahan, Fox, Bennett, Wilbraham, Naughton.

Some unlikely scorers for Norwich this week, which failed to shed any light on which of these midfielders we should be targeting. Johnson has been the biggest goal threat to date though it's Pilkington who has the goals. I will talk more about Morison in this week's focus on budget forwards, but while Norwich are equipping themselves in the league well, it's tough to see too much consistent production here, making most of their players 2nd or 3rd sub types.

QPR
Cerny, Young, Gabbidon, Ferdinand, Hill, Wright-Phillips, Derry, Faurlin, Traore, Mackie, Helguson.
Subs: Putnins, Orr, Hall, Bothroyd, Buzsaky, Smith, Puncheon.

QPR conceded 2 goals in the first 6 GWs and then 17 in the last 7. They're clearly missing Barton (and yes even Taarabt) who gave them a couple of players who could put their foot on the ball and get a better grip of the game. Aside from the uber-cheap Gabbidon, their defense is probably overpriced. Young's goal was nice and Traore's advanced deployment is generally an asset but both are priced based on their former employers and don't deliver value here. Helguson seems to have a decent grip on that lone striker role though you wouldn't be too surprised to see Bothroyd get minutes too.

Stoke
Sorensen, Wilkinson, Shawcross, Huth, Wilson, Pennant, Whelan, Delap, Etherington, Walters, Crouch
Subs: Begovic, Higginbotham, Jones, Fuller, Whitehead, Upson, Jerome.

I totally missed the Begovic benching last week so apologies for that, and thanks to the readers who steered me in the right direction. Pulis announced that he still have faith in Begovic but that Sorensen is the man between the sticks for now. Begovic is obviously a sell but I would personally abandon this pairing for now as you wouldn't be shocked to see him win back that jersey at some point. Elsewhere this is a settled side though it's hard to be excited by too much outside of Walters.

Sunderland
Westwood, O'Shea, Bardsley, Turner, Brown, Cattermole, Larsson, Colback, Sessegnon, Richardson, Bendtner
Subs: Carson, Gardner, Vaughan, Ji, Meyler, McClean, Elmohamady

Another settled side but another whose suspect form is really hurting their players' fantasy production. Sessegnon and Bendtner have their fans (and some stats to backup the love) but both have fallen off the map in November. Larsson's 7 shots on target suggest his goalscoring exploits may be limited in the future. I still favor the cheap Sessegnon to lead his team in points come season end.

Swansea
Vorm, Rangel, Williams, Monk, Taylor, Sinclair, Britton, Allen, Gower, Dyer, Graham
Subs: Tremmel, Dobbie, Routledge, Lita, Moore, Richards, Moras.

This is a really good defensive unit and given their pricing there's a strong argument to owning Vorm and another defender (I like Taylor). This lineup is extremely reliable and while the outfielders no not really warrant starting every week, they make nice 2nd subs and can be relied upon for appearance points and the off 5-6 pointer. This is one of the more valuable teams around to monitor.

Tottenham
Friedel, Walker, Kaboul, King, Assou-Ekotto, Lennon, Parker, Sandro, Bale, Adebayor, Defoe
Subs: Cudicini, Gallas, Bassong, Livermore, Kane, Pienaar, Fredericks.

A couple of enforced changes here with Defoe and Sandro slotting in for Van der Vaart and Modric, though neither are likely to hold down a place going forward. Adebayor is starting to make noise and is one of a couple of players challenging the 'two elite forwards plus one scrub' strategy. I don't put him in the same category as Van Persie, Aguero or Rooney (at least in the long term) just yet but at 2.0-3.0m less, you have to at least consider how you can use that cash elsewhere. Alternatively, with the top flight midfielders struggling of late, some will no doubt consider three elite forwards. The problem there is finding the cheap midfielders to supplement your front three, and thus Adebayor becomes tough to fit into your side. Spurs have good fixtures on the horizon and have quickly become a hot fantasy team, but they'll need to be more ruthless if they are to provide defensive value to accompany their significant firepower going forward.

West Brom
Foster, Reid, McAuley, Olsson, Shorey, Brunt, Mulumbu, Morrison, Thomas, Gera, Long
Subs: Fulop, Tchoyi, Dorrans, Odemwingie, Jones, Cox, Scharner.

There are a lot of uninspiring team this year! Brunt seems to be a shadow of his former self and this team really seems to miss Odemwingie's speed. The Nigerian did make the bench this week though and with Gera getting injured he might be thrown straight into action next week. The back line is settled and well priced but they just don't seem to be very good at the moment which negates all other factors.

Wigan
Al Habsi, Gohouri, Caldwell, Stam, Figueroa, McCarthy, Moses, Gomez, Jones, Diame, Sammon
Subs: Pollitt, Crusat, Watson, Di Santo, McArthur, Rodallega, Lopez.

He scored some points! Moses finally rewarded his loyal owner (ie me) with an assist this week: watch out David Silva. The team selection continues to baffle me as Watson, Di Santo and Rodallega are all (at least on paper) some of Wigan's best players. To be honest I don't see enough of their games to suggest Martinez is wrong, and a good win this week suggests his team selection may be right but from a fantasy perspective, the likes of Sammon, Jones and Gomez just don't have the talent or opportunities to be relevant. Pass

Wolverhampton
Hennessey, Zubar, Berra, Johnson, Elokobi, Jarvis, Henry, Milijas, Ward, Edwards, Fletcher
Subs: De Vries, Craddock, Ebanks-Blake, Hammill, Doherty, Guedioura, Forde.

O'Hara and Hunt were suspended for this one and they will presumably slip back into the side next week. I'm not sure what happened to Doyle, but he had suggested in the week that he was fearful of being dropped. If Fletcher is given guaranteed minutes, his goalscoring record is very good and he would become a useful mid-range forward. This team has talent but like so many other sides this year, they don't seem to be doing much with it.

Gameweek 13 Preview

2011-11-25T04:48:00.001Z

For the first time this year, I have included data based purely on the current season as 12 games appears to be a relatively useful sample size. I apply a small adjustment to try and account for the strength of schedule already faced (ie. have you played, and been destroyed by, City yet?) but I'm not sure that is tough enough to make the data really reliable. Hence, I am still leaning on the hybrid (current and prior year) data but it's useful to start factoring in the pure current year rankings at this stage.

Without running through each difference individually, I just want to highlight the difference a season can make. City rank 14th in this week's rankings but would be number one based purely on their 6 road games this year (in which they've scored an astonishing 23 goals despite travelling to Old Trafford, Craven Cottage and White Hart Lane). Given the way the team has changed in personnel (hello, Mr Aguero) and also tactical deployment (hello, attacking play), City might be one team where you would allow your eye to wander to those right hand columns.

I was shocked to see Arsenal so far down on this list but the hard data is what it is and Fulham have been pretty good on the road this year (3 clean sheets and just 6 goals conceded). Of course, the three quality teams they have faced have had plenty of success (Man City 2, Spurs 3, Newcastle 2) but this isn't the cake walk some may imagine. On the flip side, Arsenal have really turned a corner in the last few weeks and they've failed to net twice just once in the last 8 gameweeks. Would this put me off starting or captaining Van Persie? Nope. Which brings us to this week's captain picks.

Captain Picks
I could save myself a lot of wear and tear on my keyboard by simply copying and pasting the fact that Van Persie is awesome and is probably your captain pick until further notice. 10 goals in the last 5 gameweeks is Ronaldo-esque and I don't think we've seen this kind of fantasy domination since Rooney in 09/10, or maybe since the Portuguese maestro departed for the Bernabeu. As we noted above, Arsenal's fixture isn't perhaps as easy as one might think, but it's going to take a very brave man to own but yet not captain Van Persie this week (or any other when he's in this kind of form).

Based on the fixture alone, Rooney might be the pick this week. Newcastle are a much improved side from last year, but as the table shows, their improved defense is not enough to quash the strength of United's home scoring prowess. However, United (and Rooney) have slowed down of late though it isn't clear which one's form is affecting the success of the other (probably a bit of both). They've won three in a row following the disastrous derby but none of the performances have inspired too much confidence Rooney is at least back to playing up top, but would you really captain him based on the below:

There are plenty of ways to talk yourself into Rooney this week, unfortunately not too many of them are based on fact. Throw in a (decreasing) chance of Rooney not being fit and the decision quickly turns into an easy one.

What you make of the City options this week really depends on how much stock you put in current year compared to prior year. Prior year data suggests City will slow down and struggle a bit at Anfield, while the current year data suggests Dalglish's men will be cast aside like every other team City have faced this year. In truth it's probably somewhere in the middle. City won't average almost 4 GPG away from home this year, but equally they don't look likely to return to last season's conservative side who often settled for clean sheets and the odd goal on the road. Aguero played just 8 minutes in midweek and will surely get a start here for Mancini's men. For all Van Persie's heroics of late, the Argentine has been as good for most the year and his goals at Old Trafford and White Hart Lane suggest he isn't going to be phased by a trip to Anfield. Silva did feature in midweek but he was given the week off last week so you'd like to think he'll back in the side here. I love Silva this year, and have been on the record before the season as listing him as my number one player to own, but his (and City's upside) is surely limited this week

Chelsea look great this based on current and prior year data but who would you back to even start, never mind have success? Lampard is enjoying a very good (and surprisingly unheralded) fantasy season and the 5% of managers who own him should at least consider Lampard for the armband this week. Ultimately though, Lampard has dropped 5 games with 2 or less points and Chelsea just don't look very good right now. I thought they had turned the corner after the big wins against Swansea and Bolton but until they settle on how, and who, they want to play, this team appears doomed to inconsistency this year: not good for your captain option.

Sorry there isn't more to say on the captain picks but in essence it comes down to the logical pick (Van Persie) or a risky (but justifiable) option from Manchester. You can't go wrong with any of the above picks but for me it's too hard to resist Van Persie at the moment.

As always, post your thoughts or comments below or @plfantasy and I'll try to address as many as I can before the weekly deadline (you've probably got a better chance on Twitter).

Playing Your Card Right Part II: Assembling a Squad

2011-11-23T21:58:00.001Z

As we approach the time of the year when managers are increasingly interested in playing their wildcard, it's time to start thinking about some of the key principles and themes to bear in mind when making those all important transfers.

In Part I we looked at the importance of looking forward and not dwelling on the past successes of players to date. We now turn our attention to the importance of building a squad, rather than a team, and how this can make the difference between average and bad or great and good weeks.

By my count, only six players managed to play every game last year, four of which were goalkeepers (Baines and Skrtel were the other two). As the chart below shows, the majority of 'keepers played a lot of minutes but the other positions (particularly midfielders and forwards) were less predictable. Just 29% of forwards played in 26 games or more and only 49% even managed to appear in half of their teams' games.

So what does this mean? Well, in short, that no matter how well we avoid injuries and suspensions, our players (the stars and the scrubs) are going to miss time and thus it's important to have players ready to step in when those unexpected absences occur.

If we (somewhat optimistically) suggest that we are able to select 10 players who each play 28 games, that would still leave 100 games worth of appearances available in your side. Granted, you will be able to avoid a number of those with your weekly transfers but even optimistically you're still looking at 50+ appearances required from auto subs off your bench so having a terrible bench could cost you 100 points, and that's assuming everyone else only scores appearance points. In reality, you could be looking at hole of closer to 150 points, just because you chose to save the extra 0.5m and grab Shane Ferguson and Robbie Blake.

How much to spend
Though we're emphasizing the importance of a deep squad, it's important to not get carried away and invest too much on players who will only play in an emergency. My preferred strategy is to try and grab one player who you consider to be rotatable every week and then a couple of players who come with a low price tag but are as locked into their team's lineup as possible. With the relative abundance of cheap defenders this year, there is no reason you couldn't grab three budget defenders with the intention or rotating them, along with a budget forward to go along with your probably elite pairing from the talented group available. That should leave you with enough cash to grab 5 good midfielders and thus you should be able to field a decent XI every week, even when the rotations, injuries and suspensions start mounting up over Christmas.

Defenders from Newcastle, Swansea, Sunderland and QPR all give promising returns in that 4.5m range, while injuries or a change in form could yet give players like Evans, P Robinson or Ward value this year. I therefore see no reason to be holding ~5.0m players on the bench every week. On the flip side, while players like N Taylor and Simpson are appealing, I wouldn't be too worried about spending ~4.5m if you prefer players in that price range, or their fixtures gel better with your premium players (that said, that pair are my favorite players from their respective teams' defense).

In midfield, the budget options are much thinner, and for that reason I would lean towards holding 5 useful options, preferring to save money in defense and up front instead. Looking at FFS's top 20 midfielders based on their ICT index, we see just a couple of sub-6.0m options with good underlying stats: O'Hara, Eagles, Faurlin and Moses. Moses has been brutal this year earning zero (!) points other than those awarded for showing up (and a couple of lousy clean sheet points) while Faurlin has just a single big game to his name. While I advise against relying on the past too much, it's also important to remember that players aren't robots and such a lack of production will be tough to overcome as players lose confidence. I'm not ready to totally give up on Moses but we need to see at least some production before he can considered ownable again. The likes of Eagles and O'Hara give us a couple of budget options who've started the season well but there really aren't too many others to shout about. With that in mind, I would be minded to try and stretch to a ~6.5m budget for your 5th midfielder, bringing the likes of Walters, Ramsey, Larsson and Cabaye into your price range.

Up front there are a number of good budget options, so there's no reason to be regularly a benching a Bendtner, Sturridge or Zamora type. The 6.0m range looks useful with Klasnic, Long and Hoilett bringing excellent underlying stats to match their production, but it's even further down the price list that my attention lies. Morison, Graham, Helguson, Best, Di Santo and Dembele have all provided value at some point this year and those first three at least have the kind of underlying stats which would imply their success should continue. We will delve into the detail there in a future post, but for now, we can certainly conclude that the depth of budget front men is fairly good and so again, there is no reason to have players not playing or contributing with that third forward slot.

I am amazed that more managers aren't employing a third budget forward (Graham 3%, Morison 1% and Helguson 1%), suggesting that the majority are either playing 3 up top every week or benching too much value on a weekly basis. If you're convinced that Ba or Klasnic will continue to score with every other shot that hits the target then he will deliver better production than these budget options, but if you believe that those kind of returns are unsustainable, the cheaper players make more sense (for what it's worth that's the direction I currently lean).

This rule probably hasn't told you much that you didn't already know (14 players are better than 11!) but I hope it's put into the context the fine line you need to tread between keeping a strong team and not overpaying for bench warmers. I don't generally advocate paying for transfers but it's vital to maintain your squad and remove dead weight as soon as possible, rather than keep using transfers only on your premium spots. The injuries are starting to mount, players are reaching the 5 yellow card mark, and Mancini continues to work his infuriating magic, so if your squad's a mess, it might be time to play your wildcard now; just make sure you do it right.

Playing Your Card Right Part I: Chasing Points

2011-11-21T04:02:00.001Z

It's getting to that time of year when fantasy squads start to develop too many common threads and managers begin to longingly look at that 'play wildcard' option when making transfers. With the second wildcard window looming in GW20-23, realistically the two strategies are to:

play your first wildcard now, re-load in GW23 and hope to survive the remainder of the year with that team, or
hold off until GW20, maximise your squad for the busy Christmas period (possibly taking advantage of the inevitable DGWs) and then switch out to a new team in or around GW30 for the final stretch.

There are advantages to both strategies and in all honesty, the fact you have made it this long without using your wildcard puts you ahead of many other managers (even if you have used your first wildcard, you might still pick up a few things to thing about below, so keep reading!)

The choice of when to use your wildcard is going to greatly depend on the idiosyncrasies of your league.

How far behind/ahead are you?
Have all your competitors used theirs already?
Are injuries/suspensions starting to rack up for your team?

What won't change however are the kind of things you should consider when deciding when, and how, to use your wildcard. The first thing we are going to look at is the distinction between chasing points, genuine stars and those players due for a strong second half.

Chasing Points vs. Genuine Stars
I would suggest that the most common mistake when making transfers in general, but more specifically when playing the wildcard, is placing too much weight on what has happened (particularly recently) and not enough on what will happen. Of course, none of us know exactly what will happen in the future, but the data available to us can give us a good idea, at least to the point that will be better than simply ranking all available players by points scored to date.

We've touched on the principle before, but it will form an important part of this analysis so it bears repeating again. Key passes made (KP) and shots attempted (Sh) have been good indicators of assists and goals respectively and so a player who has done well in these areas but has yet to see any production should be in for a improvement in fortunes in the future (or vice versa). It is worth noting though that, generally, their production will not 'over correct' to compensate for the weeks of below average production, but normalise to expected levels from now on. For example, if we say that on average one of every 10 key passes is converted into an assist, and a player has 30 key passes with just 1 assist, we would not expect 3 of his next 10 passes to be converted (thus giving him 4 from 40) but rather that his production will regress to a normal rate of 1 from 10 rather than his current rate of 1 from 30 in the future. That is still however an increase in production from the season to date and thus could indicate that a player is currently undervalued (and therefore under owned).

I had some concerns about being overly simplistic with this metric but looking at last season we see that the vast majority of players who played at least 10 games had their key passes converted at a rate of between 0 and 15 key passes per assist (for a league average of 10.5). We can therefore use this measure (with some care) to suggest that players who are seeing their key passes converted at a substantially lower rate will be due for an increase in fortune in the future (or vice versa).

It's a similar story for shots, which enjoyed an 80% correlation to goals last season. On average a goal was scored for every 9.8 shots, so again, if a player is taking shots but not getting returns, we might forecast him to have success in the future and thus be a target for your wildcard transfers.

On the flip side, you've got those players where everything they have touched has turned to gold (or goals as the case may be) and history tells us their productivity will (likely) decline. Of course, there are exceptions every year and statistics won't necessarily average out over 38 games (Mulumbu scored 6 goals from 8 shots last season) but if you're still with me, you probably have at least an interest in playing the odds.

With that in mind, below are a sampling of the top players whose underlying stats have not yet been converted into fantasy points, and those who appear to have been overly successful so far:

xG is the expected goals based on the shots taken to date and xA is the expected assists based on the key passes made. xFP is the expected fantasy points 'missing' from a player's scoresheet based on the underlying stats. Now, to be clear, we are not saying that a player will 'recover' these points, but that Moses is playing more like a 4 point player than a 2 point player and should play at that level in the future, all things being equal.

I don't want to reproduce too many of the stats from FFS as they pay Opta for the privilege but anyone who has a subscription can see the above data for all players and the logic should stand up for most players. The one group who this probably doesn't apply to are the elite class of forwards. The elite strikers have tended to convert at a much better rate than the average player, generally knocking in a goal every three or four shots. This holds up this year with Van Persie (13 from 43), Aguero (10 from 33) and Rooney (9 from 40) but these players are less important for this kind of analysis anyway so we won't dwell here.

I will reproduce the short list later in the week to highlight widely held players who fair badly on this, and other, analysis and thus should probably be avoided when playing your wildcard. Also stay tuned for the next few themes to consider when playing your wildcard including how to build a squad rather than a team, differentiating your team and playing the fixture list.

Lineup Lessons: Gameweek 12

2011-11-20T18:25:00.001Z

Arsenal
Szczesny, Koscielny, Mertesacker, Vermaelen, Andre Santos, Ramsey, Arteta, Song, Walcott, van Persie, Gervinho
Subs: Fabianski, Rosicky, Djourou, Arshavin, Chamakh, Benayoun, Coquelin.

Koscileny got a start at right back here in Sagna and Jenkinson's absence, though you have to expect he will drop out of the side when either recognised right back returns. Aside from that it's as expected with Van Persie underlying his claims of being the top fantasy option around. There is value to be had in this side with Ramsey, Arteta, Walcott and possibly Gervinho looking they need to be in at least included in the player pool.

Blackburn
Robinson, Salgado, Hanley, Dann, Givet, Rochina, Nzonzi, Dunn, Pedersen, Hoilett, Yakubu.
Subs: Formica, Petrovic, Blackman, Roberts, Goodwillie, Henley, Bunn.

The goals are a promising sign but it's still hard to know when and where the production is going to come from for this team and thus it's all but impossible to include anyone in your team. Yakubu is possibly worth thinking about as a poor man's Darren Bent but his production is going to be up and down as he gets rested and contributes little outside of goals. A lot of people have been high on Formica in the last couple of weeks but he continues to be rotated and deployed in varying positions. Until we see more consistency in both areas he remains out of the player pool.

Bolton
Jaaskelainen, Riley, Wheater, Cahill, Robinson, Eagles, Reo-Coker, Muamba, M Davies, K Davies, Klasnic
Subs: Bogdan, Tuncay, Petrov, Knight, Pratley, Ngog, Kakuta.

Riley got another start this week, though he remains a squad player when everyone is fit, so I wouldn't get cute and try and save 0.5m there (not that you really want a Bolton defender anyway). Petrov's continuing decline confirms that he is unownable at the moment and Eagles is the only midfield option to consider here. Klasnic's penalty duties were a surprise here and, for me, they push him over the edge and make him an ownable player going forward. On the flip side, K Davies continues to struggle and will no longer be bailed out with set pieces. He is very close to dropping out of the player pool.

Chelsea
Cech, Ivanovic, Luiz, Terry, Cole, Ramires, Mikel, Lampard, Mata, Drogba, Malouda
Subs: Turnbull, Romeu, Torres, Meireles, Bosingwa, Sturridge, Anelka

I don't know what to make of this defense anymore. I thought they had settled on Bosingwa, then in came Ivanovic. I thought they had settled on Luiz and then Alex slotted in. Now Luiz is back (though that could have been an enforced move). The same confusion exists up top with Drogba, Torres, Sturridge and Malouda rotating apparently at random for two spots alongside the (apparently) safe Mata. We find ourselves in a situation where only Mata, Lampard, and, I suppose, Ramires are fantasy options in this side, and all of them look overpriced given the alternatives available in their price brackets. I'm not willing to wait for Villas-Boas' side to 'come good' and will wait for them to prove they are an elite offensive/defensive force before investing anywhere in this team.

Everton
Howard, Hibbert, Heitinga, Jagielka, Baines, Coleman, Fellaini, Osman, Drenthe, Cahill, Saha
Subs: Mucha, Bilyaletdinov, Stracqualursi, Gueye, Barkley, Vellios, Mustafi.

It would be unfair to not mention Baines' goal here after all the criticism I have thrown at his price tag (not his ability). I would however add that this week's game was one of the best chances at a clean sheet you're going to get and Everton once again came up empty. Therefore, despite the goals, I'm not willing to include either Baines or Jagielka in the player pool. The highest ranked midfielder in Fantasy Football Scout's ICT index is Fellaini, who is 58th. Man City have 6 (six!) players ranked higher than Fellaini, and newly promoted QPR and Swansea each have 4.

Fulham
Schwarzer, Hughes, Hangeland, Baird, Senderos, Dempsey, Murphy, Etuhu, Duff, Zamora, Dembele
Subs: Etheridge, Johnson, Kasami, Ruiz, Gecov, Briggs, Kacaniklic.

I want to like this defense but there are just too many changes every week to rely on anyone but Hangeland, who looks well overpriced at 6.2m compared to the likes of Richards, Jose Enrique or P Jones. Somewhat to my surprise, Baird looks like him is locked into a starting spot at the moment, though whether he will hold off Hughes once Riise returns still concerns me a bit. Given how the fixtures gel with Swansea, I think the best strategy here is to grab Schwarzer in a rotation strategy and save yourself a big headache. Offensively, Murphy has great underlying stats but only solid production while Dempsey (who has looked good) remains just a touch too pricey for my taste. The front line looks much too crowded to justify investment.

Liverpool
Reina, Johnson, Skrtel, Agger, Jose Enrique, Kuyt, Lucas, Adam, Maxi, Bellamy, Suarez
Subs: Doni, Carroll, Henderson, Downing, Spearing, Carragher, Kelly.

I seem to have cursed Downing by suggesting he was possibly the only Liverpool midfielder locked into the starting lineup, and Maxi's goal won't help his cause in that area. As I alluded to earlier in the week though, I like Adam here now Gerrard is gone for a few weeks and it's these consistent 5 pointers which help him to be a useful starter in most weeks. He lacks the upside of a A Young / Van der Vaart / Nani but if you can't quite afford that group or are looking to capitalise on Liverpool's good fixture list, Adam is the best option. Suarez has now gone 5 games without scoring and, more worryingly, has just 16 points to his name over that time. He does however lead the league in attempts and his 20 shots on target are behind just Van Persie (26) and Rooney (23). Based on statistical history his goalscoring record should improve if he continues to shoot at such a rate, though it's impossible to claim he is in the same fantasy class as that pair (or the City duo of Dzeko and Aguero) at the moment. Defensively, many will be tempted to pile on G Johnson after his goal this week; please don't be one of them.

Man City
Hart, Richards, Kompany, Lescott, Clichy, Nasri, De Jong, Toure Yaya, Milner, Balotelli, Aguero.
Subs: Pantilimon, Dzeko, Kolarov, Johnson, Barry, Silva, Toure.

I said this week that I've given up trying to guess what Mancini will do, and once again he shocked me, choosing to bench Silva who has been in irrepressible form and who played the least time on international duty of all the big names. I thought Nasri was pretty quiet throughout with Yaya, Milner and Balotelli all catching the eye above the former Arsenal man. Many will argue the prospects of Milner and Balotelli, and on other teams I would agree, but I still find it hard to waste a spot on this potent City team on a player who will not feature every week (though perhaps Milner is starting to play his way into being an every week starter). I rate Richards as the best defender to own in the league in terms of points (Jose Enrique in terms of value) and his goal and assist was a nice bonus this week to cover for the late blown clean sheet.

Man Utd
De Gea, Jones, Ferdinand, Vidic, Evra, Nani, Park, Carrick, Giggs, Rooney, Hernandez
Subs: Lindegaard, Evans, Berbatov, Young, Fabio Da Silva, Fletcher, Valencia.

It took a couple of weeks to play out but P Jones is rewarding our faith now, taking up a spot as the 2nd highest scoring defender around. If your budget can stretch to it, owning him alongside the aforementioned pair of Richards and Jose Enrique gives you access to the league's best defenses along with attacking potential and consistency: a very solid strategy. One would imagine A Young will be back next week and once he proves he is back to full fitness (and form) he might be a nice buy opportunity given the way his price has fallen. Nani has been quiet of late though Ferguson hasn't been overly quick to bench him or Young for Valencia so I'd feel fairly good owning either of these players over the next 6-8 gameweeks. Rooney was back up top, alongside Hernandez, which should give him the best chance to have success. Despite not getting among the points, he ranked as the 3rd best forward in FFS's ICT Index, posting his best total since GW7. It seems like a question of when, rather than if, Rooney returns to form and puts himself back among fantasy consideration for us all.

Newcastle
Krul, Simpson, S Taylor, Coloccini, R Taylor, Ben Arfa, Guthrie, Cabaye, Gutierrez, Ba, Sammy Ameobi
Subs: Elliot, Santon, Lovenkrands, Perch, Gosling, Smith, Shola Ameobi.

I was pleased to see Ben Arfa get a start as you have to feel he has the potential to be an impact player in this league. He looked busy early on and hit the woodwork in the second half, though better things should be still to come this year. Without proven starting minutes or production he isn't a genuine option just yet, but he definitely justifies our peripheral attention. I wouldn't read too much into this stingy defense surrendering three goals to City, many a good team will suffer the same fate (see United, Manchester).

Norwich
Ruddy, Naughton, R Martin, Barnett, Tierney, Crofts, Johnson, Fox, Pilkington, Hoolahan, Morison
Subs: Rudd, Drury, Holt, Jackson, Surman, Bennett, Wilbraham.

This lineup has settled down and Morison has really emerged as a good option over the past few weeks. His 22 shots ranked 8th among forwards though Norwich's style and his deployment are going to limit his assists somewhat. With a number of elite 10m+ forwards this year, it's good to have the likes of Morison, Graham and Klasnic as your pool of options for your 3rd forward.

QPR
Kenny, Traore, Hill, Gabbidon, Ferdinand, L Young, Faurlin, Mackie, Barton, Wright-Phillips, Helguson
Subs: Murphy, Orr, Derry, Buzsaky, Smith, Hewitt.

Needless to say, Taarabt is finished as a fantasy asset, and serves only as a warning against believing hype and translating Championship stats into Premier League success. Helguson has been superb since securing a first team spot here and Warnock faces a tough choice as to who to start when everyone is fit. Helguson will feature in the upcoming review of budget forwards, and should find himself towards the top of that list. It's now 8 goals conceded in 3 games for QPR and if this form continues next week at Norwich, it will be time to move on (before they face MnU and Liv in GW15 and 16).

Stoke City
Sorensen, Wilkinson, Shawcross, Huth, Higginbotham; Pennant, Whitehead, Delap, Etherington; Walters, Crouch
Subs: Begovic, Whelan, Jones, Fuller, Wilson, Upson, Palacios.

No Woodgate here again despite most sources suggesting he would play, and it's finally time for me to admit that he was always going to be too risky to own and move on. Shawcross' goal makes him look attractive and given the upheaval at the other positions he is probably the best pick on this back line, but note that this is not last year's unit so far in 2011/12. They've shipped 14 goals in the last 4 games after a promising start to the season and the whole defense looks overpriced on this form. Failure in this week's visit of Blackburn will surely end any hope for this unit for the foreseeable future. Going forward it's all about Walters who is living up to his billing as a midfielder deployed up front. I would temper expectations that he will continue this kind of goal scoring pace all year (3 in the last 5) but 8 goals for the year doesn't seem like a stretch, which would represent good value for the required outlay.

Sunderland
Westwood, O'Shea, Turner, Brown, Bardsley, Elmohamady, Colback, Cattermole, Richardson, Bendtner, Sessegnon
Subs: Carson, Gardner, Vaughan, Ji, Meyler, Noble, Egan.

While not an exciting unit, this defense has 4 clean sheets for the season and has generally excelled when facing weak attacking opposition (Swa, Sto, Bol, Ful). The back line is settled and reliable and deserves some attention if you are looking for short term options based on matchups (Wigan at home this week). I'm not all that sold on Bendtner and three back-to-back 2-pointers evidences why. He ranks 15th in FFS's ICT index behind the likes of Hoilett and Klasnic and only just ahead of Morison and Graham. I don't feel that he deserves to be played every week but at 6.4m he looks just a bit too pricey to regularly bench.

Swansea
Vorm, Rangel, Williams, Monk, Taylor, Sinclair, Routledge, Gower, Britton, Dyer, Graham
Subs: Tremmel, Dobbie, Lita, Moore, Allen, Richards, Moras.

Made a good account of themselves against the Champions with 49% possession and 9 attempts on goal (vs 13 for MnU) and only lost on a mistake from Rangel who tried to play his way out of defense once too often. After a worrying spell of conceding goals (GW6-9) Swansea have conceded just two goals in the last three games, despite facing MnU and Liverpool over that period. They have some decent games coming up and this settled unit looks worthy of continued investment.

West Brom
Foster, Reid, Olsson, McAuley, Shorey, Morrison, Mulumbu, Brunt, Thomas, Gera, Long
Subs: Fulop, Dorrans, Fortune, Tchoyi, Dawson, Jones, Cox

Long marked his return to the side with a goal, and is another player to throw his name into the hat as an ownable #3 forward. Until this defense can show improvement or someone can emerge in the middle of the park, Long may be the only ownable option here. McAuley is an option if you're desperate for a 4.0m player, though you should really try and grab 0.2m and get Simpson instead.

Wigan
Al Habsi, Stam, Gohouri, Caldwell, Figueroa, Moses, McCarthy, Gomez, Jones, Diame, Sammon.
Subs: Pollitt, Crusat, Watson, Maloney, McArthur, Rodallega, Lopez.

Di Santo has fallen off the face of the earth after a hot start, while Watson found himself benched after looking like a promising option himself. It's unclear where this Wigan side is going and despite their recent form, it's tough to understand the rationale behind leaving out your most talented players on a regular basis. Moses has some good underlying stats but his assist potential is always going to be limited and he hasn't shown an ability to find the back of the net. Al Habsi remains a rotatable option as his save totals can bail him out but outside of that, this team looks fairly useless.

Wolverhampton
Hennessey, Stearman, Johnson, Berra, Ward, Edwards, Henry, Milijas, Hunt, O'Hara, Doyle
Subs: De Vries, Elokobi, Craddock, Ebanks-Blake, Fletcher, Jarvis, Guedioura.

I'm pretty much out on this team given the manager's puzzling team choices (what does Fletcher have to do to get a game) along with the upcoming fixtures. O'Hara and Hunt are both suspended for next week and I would advise their owners moving on, and reconsidering this team in the new year when the fixtures are better.

Reader Questions

2011-11-18T17:49:00.001Z

@teekleton can you please update me on the goalkeeper combo strategy? did you try one? is it working? any good combos for the next 8 gwks?

The latest charts showing the best combos of GKs (as of GW11) are updated and can be found here. I am however conscious that I haven't yet done the analysis to prove that the GK-combo strategy has been a success this year, or whether in fact you should have gone with a De Gea type option. I will try and get that analysis knocked out over the weekend, though I would suggest that it will almost certainly have been preferential to employ the strategy so far with Vorm (originally 4.0m) leading all keepers in points by some distance. Throw in good starts for Krul, Al Habsi, Schwarzer and Hennessey and you have a recipe for a successful combo. In the pre-season (and before Vorm signed for Swansea) the recommended combinations were Given/Begovic or Begovic/Moreira (who became Vorm). Given has been a bit disappointing from that group, but I would surprised if both combos weren't close to or ahead of the De Geas and Reinas of the world.

@JamesGall13 Who to put my captain this week? Aguero, Silva, Adebayor, Suarez, Mata, Drenthe or Ramsey.

The upside picks are the City boys as normal though I wouldn't be surprised if either Silva and/or Aguero were rested this week. The somewhat reliable Guardian squad sheets suggests they will play, though there is undoubtedly a risk there. Adebayor also has a great fixture and should feature depite playing for Togo this week, though again there is a small risk of rotation (Redknapp could go with VdV and Defoe up top).

@ajmtosh hey Chris, need a replacement for Ashley Young and the budget doesn't stretch to VDV or Nani... Bale, Adam or Dempsey?

I would have said Bale two weeks ago, but with Gerrard's injury I am higher on Adam again and given Liverpool's upcoming fixtures he should be poised for some solid production. He's never going to be the kind of player to score double digit points very often, but I like his consistency more than the boom and bust nature of Bale. Spurs do have good fixtures though, so I wouldn't argue with the selection of Bale here. As for Dempsey, I mentioned last week that I feel his is being undervalued, but yet I wouldn't make now the time to pick him up. The next 7 GWs see Fulham face Man Utd, Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea along with tricky trips to Swansea and Sunderland. After that run I like him as a differentiator in the middle of the park but for now I'd go with the safe Adam or high ceiling Bale.

pp - What do you think about replacing VDV with Bale and replacing Aguero with Klasnic? In my view, they might not be fit.

As above, I like Bale but you have to accept that his production will be up and down and thus you have to (a) play him every week and (b) hold for a significant period or you risk missing out on the 'up' weeks. I personally hold Van der Vaart and Aguero and I don't plan to sell either. Aguero played for Argentina midweek and came through unscathed so while rotation is always a risk, he is at least fit. As for Van der Vaart, his chances of being fit were rated at 70% so you might consider moving him but I like him in the long term so I'm personally happy to wait a week, even if he sits this one out.

adamfarm - Love your posts, reading them has become a bit of an obsession this year. However, in spite of following the econometrics religiously I think it's important to temper this information with other information. For example, the math suggests Liverpool are a poor bet defensively, but they've kept clean sheets at the bridge 3 of the last 4 outings....combined with Chelsea's form of late I would suggest giving the likes of Enrique a good look this week in spite of the rankings. I know I'm not telling you anything you don't already know, and I appreciate that you often provide this type of counter-intelligence to your posts, but this seems particularly glaring to not call out.

You're absolutely right that there should be more factors to consider than the stats I provide but given my available time I struggle to cover all the bases. I shy away from past meetings between teams though, just because you can quickly get into irrelevant territory (different managers, players etc). My current rankings do factor in form by giving weight to the last 6 gameweeks, though I haven't really settled on whether this makes them any stronger or not (is there really such thing as 'form' or just random strings or results which sometimes look strange?).

The rankings won't always be right, and to be honest, you won't win the overall competition following them. To do that you need to take big risks and make big upside plays, which is not what I'm all about. I do however believe that if you make the logical play every week, you will generally get the best results. I would urge managers to use their own judgement if they like a particular fixture though, and there's a good argument to play Enrique this week based on his form and attacking potential.

PUI615 - I have a real dilemma on my hands: I have 3 possible options as a keeper defender strategy-
1.)De Gea and 4mil defender(Gabbidon or Mcauley) since I already have Simpson,Turner and Wilk.
2.) Howard, BAE
3.)Friedel, Hibbert

Which would you prefer and why. Thanks for any thoughts, need to bring in the defender next GW.

I generally go for the budget keepers so honestly I would shy away from all three of those suggestions and use the extra cash to improve your defense. The difference between Howard/Friedel and the cheaper keepers like Vorm, Al Habsi and Krul is slim (if it even exists) and that extra 1.0m could allow you to upgrade from a Assou Ekotto to someone like Jose Enrique or Phil Jones. If however you would prefer a top keeper, I would go with option one. De Gea is a bit of an exception among elite keepers of recent years in that he brings good save totals too, which could help him lead keepers in points (but not value) this year. Of the 4.0m options to accompany him I would probably go with N Taylor or Gabbidon.

Gameweek 12 Preview

2011-11-17T01:10:00.001Z

No matter what happens in the world or how I spend my time, the preview article after an international break is like trying to recall what you ate for dinner four weeks ago. Is Aguero still good? What kind of form is Amr Zaki in this year? Did I have pasta three nights running? I recently described Bolton's home form as improving 'a few weeks back', after they hammered Stoke. That's right, I have zero concept of time without my Saturday morning sun dial.

Lucky for us, pretty much nothing happened. Suarez was charged followed the alleged racist comments, though Sepp Blatter doesn't seem to be too concerned (is there anything more worrying than the head of any body being (rightfully) scolded by Rio Ferdinand: the beacon on common sense in this whole debate. This might be the sign of the apocalypse Harold Camping was waiting for). Aguero gave us a scare but then played for Argentina. England gave their fans just enough promise to overreact to and thus be crushed next year. Oh, and Barry Bannan can't drive.

So with no major issues, we can continue as before, starting of course with this week's rankings:

Clean Sheet Rankings

Not too much to add here, though the placement of Man United this week illustrates well the importance of home fixtures. The Champions face newly promoted Swansea, a team not perceived to be all that dynamic going forward, yet find themselves 10th in the clean sheet rankings. The prior year numbers illustrate why. Just 5 clean sheet on the road for Man Utd last year: less than or equal to all the top 6 teams this week managed at home last year. It is generally the rule that a good defense at home (Stoke, Spurs) will be a better consistent bet than a very good defense on the road (that sounds obvious but how many times do you see teams start Evra at Spurs rather than Shawcross at home to Wolves?).

One a side note, it is usually around this time that I start to lessen, and then remove the impact prior year numbers have on the forecasts, though I will still include them in the above table for reference purposes.

Attacking Rankings

Not too many shocks here, though it somewhat strange to suggest that Arsenal on the road are a stronger play than Spurs, Chelsea or City at home. The answer, simply, is that Arsenal have been pretty devastating of late (13 goals in their last 4 games) and have racked up 11 goals in 5 road games this year, despite travelling to Old Trafford, Stamford Bridge, White Hart Lane and the suddenly air tight St James' Park (I doubt anyone will be using the new sponsorship name anytime soon, even the local council). The forecast numbers are pretty high this week, and there could be some big scores for those who can manage to get 11 men on the field this week.

Captain Picks
The list of captain options seems to decrease by the week, to the point that the only non-City player who justifies consideration every week in Van Persie. Rooney, of course, should be on that list but with his recent deeper deployment and lack of goals, he is a borderline option at best. If you own him, you'll consider it, though my advice would be to save yourself the bother and bring in Van Persie or Aguero until Rooney can get back up front and scoring goals.

It's the same old story at Man City with Aguero, Dzeko and Silva representing potentially great options this week, though each played a role for their respective countries during the international break and thus carries some risk:

Silva played 45 minutes against England and then half an hour against Cost Rica (getting a goal in the process),
Aguero sat out against Bolivia as an injury concern but came back against Columbia with a goal,
Dzeko played 180 minutes as Bosnia lost out over two legs to Portugal, and
Balotelli played 180 minutes and added his first goal for the Azzurri

Balotelli (the least owned of the City front men) playing for Italy probably does fantasy managers a favour as it's no longer easy to simply bench the tired Aguero and Dzeko as Super Mario himself is also tired (based on the assumption that Balotelli suffers from the human condition of fatigue). As the most rested, Silva looks like the safest bet to play here, though to be honest I have started to give up trying to second guess Mancini too much, and just roll with the notion that unless strong evidence exists to the contrary, Aguero, Silva and Dzeko will play most weeks and you just have to take your hits when your man is benched.Gun to my head, I'd captain Silva, then Aguero, then Dzeko, but I wouldn't feel totally comfortable with any of the trio until the teams sheet is announced.

For anyone who owns him, it's going to be tough to take the arm band away from Van Persie. A great fixture and his scintillating form make for a winning combination and his 68 points over the past 6 GWs are some of the best returns I remember in fantasy history. Van Persie played in the 0-0 with Switzerland but missed the 3-0 defeat to Germany, and thus should be fit enough to play at Norwich this weekend. He will certainly wear the armband in that game for me this week.

They get a decent game at Swansea, but with A Young injured and Rooney playing deeper, it's tough to see captain value in this current United side. I have little doubt that Hernandez will have his moments this year but he isn't there yet, and while I've been more supportive than most of Nani, he's only completed 90 minutes once in the last 5 games and has just a lone assist and bonus point to show for his work over that period. Ownable, yes, but not captain material as things stand.

As United's options decline for a while, Chelsea's supposedly deep team continues to provide little fantasy value (at least going forward). That said, Lampard has been very productive this year and yet finds himself held by just 4% of managers. As we touched on earlier in the long list, Lampard has been pretty good this year, if a bit up-and-down, and for managers looking to play catch up in the early stages, he at least deserves a look. The fixture is a turn off however as Liverpool already have 3 road clean sheets this year and have generally defended well (aside from the Spurs game). The Chelsea side we have seen so far this year is just not likely to put 3 goals past a good side and that means the chances of big Lampard games are lower than you'd like. A outside bet, but one that's too pricey for my taste.

Van der Vaart and Adebayor represent classic fixture plays as Villa have struggled a bit on the road while Spurs have continued to be successful at the Lane. It's been rags or riches with Van der Vaart this year and he comes with an injury warning (which he says is not necessary) and thus becomes a very risky captain pick. Many have cooled on the prospects of Adebayor but he's added at least an assist or goal in 6 out of 8 games and his 6.0 P90 ranks among the elite forwards this year. I like this pair and can see an argument that this pair deserve captain attention every week, though I'd put them behind the City elite and Van Persie this week.

Now we're a good way into the season, I am going to ramp up the statistical side of the blog in the coming weeks, as we start to rely on the trends we are seeing a bit more. I will also try and get to the long promised wildcard piece, though I'm honestly struggling for what to write there, other than to own Van Persie, Aguero and/or Rooney, an elite midfielder or two and then stuff your defense with budget players and cheap links. Any radical ideas will be more than welcomed (below or @plfantasy).

Ramsey vs Arteta

2011-11-12T02:01:00.000Z

This will just be a quick post, to address a very good point raised by reader chemikills regarding the inclusion of Arteta in the recent 'long list' of underowned players (chemikills makes some other good suggestions of underowned players in the comments section, which are well worth taking a look at).

Anyway, I have a confession to make. The comment that Arteta will benefit from the opportunities afforded to Fabregas was a bit cheap and probably not really based in reality. Fabregas is one of the best players to play in the Premier League, and no matter who replaces him, to suggest they can enjoy the same heights was hyperbole. Anyway, the question did raise an interesting side point: who will benefit most from Arsenal's revival? Arteta or Ramsey? I had been fairly high on Ramsey a few weeks back, but I must admit, he has somewhat slipped from my mind in recent weeks.

Looking at the chalkboards from the last 3 weeks, I think it's hard to conclude that Ramsey, rather than Arteta, is playing in that 'Fabregas role' but equally, it's hard to argue that Arteta is taking up significantly better positions either, and thus may not be worth the extra 1.4m it costs to bring him.

If we look at the stats over at Fantasy Football Scout, then the story becomes even more confusing:

Arteta: 23 key passes (1 assist), 10 shots, 4 on target, 3 goals
Ramsey: 14 key passes (4 assists), 13 shots, 4 on target, 1 goal

Arteta looks like the more dangerous passer but has just one assist while Ramsey seems to be the bigger goal threat yet has just a lone goal. Based on history those totals with level out over time as each pair starts converting their shots (and having their passes converted) at a more consistent rate. Whether or not that will start to happen in the next few weeks, or even this season remains to be seen.

I am still aboard the Arteta express but this has definitely revived my interest in Ramsey. At 6.7m he is cheap enough that you could probably own him as a 4th midifielder or a very reasonable 3rd midfielder, thus allowing you to hold a pricier defense or to have 3 elite forwards. Gun to my head I'd still take Arteta to score more points from here on largely based on what I perceive as a more natural goalscoring touch and his set piece duties, though I wouldn't be surprised if Ramsey ends up the more valuable player, provided that is you put the money to good use and don't blow it on Leighton Baines (sorry, that's the last shot at poor Leighton I'll make all ~~year~~ day).

So thanks to chemikills for the reminder, and thus we have another underowned player to consider.

The Long List: Under Owned Players

2011-11-10T03:30:00.000Z

Following on from the earlier list of over owned players, here are a few players who still seem to be underrated, whether based on their production to date, underlying stats, or simply that they deliver better value than a comparable peer.

Defenders
Gabbidon (4%) - This is partly a symptom of Gabiddon's injury, but he is back entrenched in the first team now and should really be the highest owned QPR defender. Granted, the team shipped 6 goals in the past 2 weeks but they were at Spurs and against City so I wouldn't read too much into that. Gabiddon presents a great opportunity for Ferdinand (7%) and Young (2%) owners to save a bit of cash without losing much, if any, production.

McAuley (1%) - I wasn't 100% sure McAuley would lock down a place in this lineup on a weekly basis but he's done just that and has played every minute since GW6. West Brom have been a better defensive unit this year than last and while McAuley probably wouldn't warrant consideration every week, he is one of a handful of 4.0m players to be getting guaranteed minutes, and that kind of production cannot be ignored. I'd still rank him below Simpson and N Taylor but if the fixtures are right or if you already own, say, S Taylor and Vorm and need to spread your defense a bit, McAuley is a nice differentiating option along the back line.

Jose Enrique (33%) - He's the second most owned defender yet he still makes this list of under owned players. That might sound perverse but the point is to emphasize how potentially valuable Jose Enrique is. Liverpool have recorded 4 clean sheets this year, and have only conceded more than a single goal on once occasion (GW5 @ Tot). If they can start to be a bit more ruthless, this unit could quickly turn into one of the top couple of defensive sides around. Consider that you can still not only get access to that unit for 5.6m, but also that you are getting the better offensive force on that back line, and Enrique's value becomes evident. His 18 key passes far eclipse any defender other than Baines and only Richards has more assists to his name this term. 'Must own' is an overused term in fantasy circles but Jose Enrique's value and ceiling push him very close to that heralded category.

N Taylor (7%) - We discussed a couple of weeks back the merits of the promoted sides, all of whom have provided fantasy value in various forms this year. The Swansea defense may be the pick of the bunch here. This week's clean sheet an Anfield gave us three indicators that this side is legit and should be able to continue having defensive success as the season goes on. One, they were playing a good side. Two, they were away from home (their first 4 clean sheets all came and home). And three, they were able to hold possession for long periods of the game (55% overall) and didn't resort to simply throwing men behind the ball and trying to hold on for dear life. The team seems to understand how games (and points) are won and lost in the Premier league already. The science behind liking Taylor here is simple: he is the cheapest player on the back line (at least until we are certain whether Caulker or Monk will play every week). Rangel has impressed going forward but an 8 to 5 key pass advantage does not really warrant the extra 0.4m you need to get him. That said, Rangel (1%) should probably be on this list too, though I wouldn't go so far as to own both (especially given that Vorm is looking like a stud choice between the sticks).

Midfielders
Dempsey (6%) - Every year he's underrated and yet he always seems to deliver. I was spooked at the start of the season by how deep he was playing with Zamora, Johnson, Dembele and now Ruiz giving Fulham a decent stable of forwards from which to select their front pair. Fear not though, Dempsey hasn't missed a beat and finds himself 5th among midfielders in points having added 3 goals, 3 assists and 3 bonus points. His lack of ownership may be because of the 'stars and scrubs' mentality most people seem to be adapting this year but as the Christmas period arrives (and players start to get rotated) there is some logic (which needs exploring further) to hold players like Bale and Dempsey rather than Nani and Silva as they are less likely to be dropped given the comparative depth of their teams. I'm not ready to put Dempsey in the top class just yet, but at 2.0m less than that group, how you could spend that money at least deserves some consideration.

Arteta (5%) - Arteta's ownership went up almost 100,000 when he was sold to Arsenal and continued to rise through GW6 but has been falling ever since. Back to back productive games, and a glowing review from Wenger suggest that the Spaniard is starting to find his feet at the Emirates, which coincides with Arsenal's return to form (4 wins in a row and 13 goals scored). At 8.1m he is in the same category as Dempsey and could well be suffering from the same problems that managers don't put him in the elite group but can't afford to hold him as their 3rd, 4th or 5th midfielder. Arsenal's good run of fixtures continues for the foreseeable future and there's a good argument to be made that Arteta should benefit from many of the opportunities afforded to Fabregas, which helped him become a fantasy force. Of course, he isn't quite on the same level as Fabregas, but for fantasy purposes a player can be helped by his surroundings and few players find themselves in a better situation than Arteta.

Lampard (4%) - Honestly, I wouldn't buy Lampard as the upside of the front men this year is too high. I feel you need to own two from Aguero, Van Persie and Rooney, though there is an argument at least that the cheaper Dzeko should be in that group. However, it seems crazy to see the second highest scoring midfielder is owned by just 4% of players, especially given Lampard's history of delivering year after year. Yes, his price tag is high, but with it he brings a goal scoring record matched by few forwards, never mind midfielders, and set piece duties for a good side which can rescue poor games with a goal or assist from nowhere. If you're out in front in your leagues then I see little reason to ditch the elite front man strategy (all of whom have outscored Lampard), anytime soon, but, if you find yourself in a hole, you're not going to get out of it by playing Silva (44%), Aguero (34%) and Rooney (37%) so you need to take a risk somewhere. 6 of Chelsea's next 10 games come at home, with the road trips including Wigan and Wolves. Anyone planning on using their wildcard soon might consider taking a run with Lampard, before swapping back to a more conventional Silva/Rooney type combo with their second wildcard, in time for the rotation-risk-reduced period in February and beyond.

O'Hara (2%) - On paper, and looking at the underlying stats, O'Hara is a total stud who should be owned by a large portion of managers. He ranks 4th in key passes and 2nd in goal attempts, helping him to a 3rd place ranking in Fantasy Football Scout's ICT index (which essentially measures a player's threat to score fantasy points). Until the last couple of weeks however, O'Hara has not been able to convert these shots/passes into points and his production has been largely disappointing. I would normally caution against chasing points from players coming off a big week, but with O'Hara, he has the stats to back it up and big games could be more the rule rather than exception if he continues to play like he is. The return to fitness of Doyle and Fletcher will also help his cause, making him one of the most intriguing options around. As a final bonus, his price is yet to rise after his big GW11 meaning that anyone who gets in at the ground level should see their investment steadily rise over the coming weeks, from a reasonable starting spot of 5.7m.

Forwards
Van Persie (22%) - it's hard to find any forwards on this list, as it's hard to argue against everyone owning Aguero and Rooney, both of whom have been money in the bank this year. However, while I don't doubt the strategy, at the moment Van Persie is clearly a better option than Rooney. Past production alone would not lead to such a claim but with Rooney pushed into a deep position, it is worth using a transfer to get away from that situation immediately, even if it is only for a short period. In truth, the time to move was a few weeks ago when Rooney missed the Stoke game, but even now, with Arsenal's fixtures, Van Persie looks like the safer option yet enjoys as high of a ceiling as anyone in the league. I wouldn't move mountains or pay points to make the move as I would imagine Rooney will be back up front soon, but if you have the spare cash and a free transfer, Van Persie looks like the man to own for the next few weeks.

The Short List: Over Owned Players

2011-11-09T00:36:00.001Z

It's always interesting to look at who are most widely owned players as this can give us some ideas as to who we might be overlooking, who is still being overvalued, and finally, how crazy/lazy some managers are. The below isn't an exhaustive list of who to buy/sell, but just a few ramblings on ownership numbers which look strange at first glance.

*To be clear, I like some of the below players, and have actively boosted them on this site before. However, in each case there is at least one other option whose ownership numbers are significantly less without much explanation and thus there could be value to be found.

Defenders
G Cahill (23%) - I love Gary Cahill. He's one of the better defenders in the country and deserves to be linked with the likes of Arsenal and Liverpool on a regular basis. However, until that move happens he is not a fantasy asset. Under Coyle, Bolton have tried (and sometimes succeeded) to play more expansive football and despite the slow start this year, I think we can all agree they're a better side (at least aesthetically) than under Megson. That said, if you stack your team with the likes of Eagles, M Davies, Lee and Petrov you are going to lose something at the back, which is exactly what has happened at the Reebok. Perhaps Saturday's dismantling of Stoke (accompanied by a pleasing display at the back) will see a turnaround for the Whites but even then I'd prefer to go with Robinson (4.3m) or one of the myriad of better ~4.5m options. You're paying a premium for last year's defensive stats and 2009/10's goals, neither of which have any bearing on this year.

R Taylor (33%) and S Taylor (22%) - Newcastle have been one of the biggest surprises of the season, keeping 4 clean sheets and conceding more than a single goal on just one occasion (GW8). R Taylor has added a couple of goals and S Taylor has brought a decent bonus point haul but I'm not sure either are definitely better than Danny Simpson, who comes at a 0.9m discount. Simpson is widely held too (24%) but readers will know that I am firmly behind picking the cheap link in a defensive line but Simpson seems to be slightly overlooked here in favour of the bigger name Taylors.

Terry (13%) and A Cole (10%) - both players will probably finish around the top-20 among defenders this year but you're paying a premium over Bosingwa based on the uncertainty of his position to start to season, which is no longer an issue. He brings as good, or better, of an assist threat than Cole and while Terry has the goals to his name already, it's unlikely that he continues to score at a rate of 3 goals every 4 shots and hence a 1.2m premium looks tough to justify. Bosingwa is held by more managers than both this pair (22%) but that total really should be higher.

Jagielka (11%) and Baines (6%) - some players made the list on the basis that their teammate represented better value. This pair are on because no defender, nay, no player, from Everton is fantasy relevant at time of writing. Everton have a lone clean sheet all year (against lowly Blackburn) yet their players are priced as if they reside just outside the elite level (and in Baines' case, as the top dog). I like Baines, I really do, and I sometimes feel that this blog sounds like a personal mission against him, but going into the season he looked overpriced, and now his lofty price tag is laughable. Jagielka at least comes at a discount, and there is a circumstance where he could provide value at 5.4m, but right now you'd be better off with players from the likes of QPR and Swansea, each of whom have options at 4.5m or less.

Midfielders
Jarvis (15%) - this one I just do not understand. A huge start for Jarvis (20 points in the first 2 weeks) has been followed by 9 weeks of 3 points or less, including 3 games where he didn't even crack the starting eleven. I am a big fan of Wolves' midfield but the underlying stats have favoured O'Hara, and to a lesser extent Hunt, all season with Jarvis not doing a great deal to distinguish himself from his peers. It is all too easy to hold onto mid level players like Jarvis on the basis that they don't cost a fortune and will presumably score at some point, but with the front line basically picking itself this year, it is in these mid range slots that leagues will be won and you can't afford to have someone dropping 2 pointers every week. Do yourself a favour (and gain 0.3m to boot) and bring in O'Hara (we'll talk about him more in the upcoming under owned post).

Ferguson (13%) - I did a double take when I saw this name on the list but then remembered why I recognised the name from the pre-season: Ferguson has the dubious honor of being the only 4.0m midfielder (now 4.1m). While it is always tempting to try and plug cheap pieces in your squad to upgrade elsewhere, you should never just write off a bench spot, as when injuries and suspensions start piling up over Christmas, you're almost certain to be caught short. You should always be able to free up at least 0.5-0.7m to upgrade Ferguson to a Johnson/Moses/Fox type who at least gives you a chance at some success.

Yaya Toure (11%) - on any other team Yaya would not only be off this list, but could well be close to finding himself on the buy list. He brings consistent minutes along with a decent chance of goals and assists and comes at a discount to many of his teammates. However, such is City's power up front and at the back, I feel you really need to own Silva, Aguero/Dzeko and a defender which really leaves no room for the other options like Yaya, Johnson or Milner. Even if you don't like Silva to continue his form, I would then opt for a second defender rather than a good but unspectacular option like Yaya. If you are looking for a solid ~7.0m option, go for Ramires or Ramsey instead, who play for elite teams but don't hinder your ability to select their teammates.

N'Zogbia (9%) - unless N'Zog is back in a Wigan shirt, he has no business being owned by close to a tenth of all managers. His only non appearance points for the season came from a lone assist in GW8 and he's been pushed much deeper into midfield to accommodate the in-form trio of Agbolahor, Bent and Heskey (alright, the first two are in-form at least). At this point he is trading on past success and his play justifies a price tag of closer to 5.0m than 7.0m.

Forwards
Rooney (38%) - I'm not particularly down on Rooney as a long term prospect but when it comes to the premium forwards, you really can't afford to hold anyone for more than the odd week with depressed production. With ready made (and in form) replacements in Van Persie and Aguero, and Rooney's deeper role of late, it's hard not to recommend ditching the Englishman and waiting for him to return to his normal forward role, all the while reaping the benefits of an in form Van Persie.The downside (and thus the rationale for keeping Rooney) is that the fixture list looks pretty promising and Rooney could get back in goalscoring form at any time, but in my view that is a risky I'm not willing to take at this early stage of the season.

A sample of under owned players will follow tomorrow, and then we'll be back with the regular weekly preview and hopefully some wildcard thoughts at the end of the week, or next week. As always, post your questions below or @plfantasy and I'll answer them in the weekly preview.

Lineup Lessons: Gameweek 11

2011-11-07T03:55:00.000Z

If you ever needed proof of how far our society has changed during the past 10-20 years, imagine describing to someone my experience from last week. Cruising down (well, up) the Nile I was mad because I wasn't able to properly check my Twitter feed or update my fantasy football blog because the satellite internet USB stick I was using had a spotty connection. How many of those words even existed in the public domain 20 years ago? It's also a sad commentary on how some of us (i.e. me) live our lives that while on this awesome vacation, I would be momentarily bummed that I couldn't check the status of my fantasy team in real time because of said spotty (and pricey) connection. It's always good to meet people in the world who are genuinely happy and delighted to share stories with you despite having so few of the advantages we enjoy. It makes playing Jonathan Woodgate this week (somewhat) easier to take.

I hope everyone's fantasy teams have enjoyed comparably smooth sailing over the past few weeks and are getting ready to make the necessary moves that will undoubtedly be required over the coming Christmas schedule. We're also getting into prime wildcard territory so I will try and get some posts up on that topic over the coming week or so. Before then though, we need to get back to basics, so this week's lineup lessons and subsequent player pool movements are below:

Arsenal
Szczesny, Jenkinson, Koscielny, Vermaelen, Santos, Ramsey, Song, Arteta, Walcott, van Persie, Gervinho
Subs: Fabianski, Mertesacker, Rosicky, Park, Djourou, Arshavin, Benayoun

I'm not sure it has a huge fantasy impact but it was somewhat surprising to see Mertesacker dropped for Vermaelen, rather than the much maligned Koscielny. Personally, I never thought Koscielny was that bad and was always a bit confused by the outcry to sign a player like Mertesacker, who is solid but by no means world class. Anyhow, Vermaelen is an upgrade over either player and I suppose his return could make this unit ownable once again. I'm not there yet but if Arsenal continue to defend well, Jenkinson at 5.5m would be worth a look as Sagna remains sidelined for several months.

Having been away for a couple of weeks, I'd also be remiss if I didn't mention Van Persie's recent form. He now leads all forwards with 23 shots on target (leading to 11 goals), as well as delivering 15 key passes (leading to 3 assists). I'm pleased to say that this is one of the situations where following the process and looking to forecasted goals would have led you to select the Dutchman and I hope many of you have been reaping these benefits over the past few weeks. The current data suggests that Arsenal should be able to continue their success over the coming weeks, starting with Norwich in GW12 and with other prize assets slowing down, Van Persie looks as good as anyone at the moment.

Back-to-back good games from Walcott and Arteta are also worth noting and whenever you have someone in the form that Van Persie is showing, others are always going to benefit. Arteta's 23 key passes and Walcott's 17 shots suggest that both of these players deserve monitoring once again.

Aston Villa
Given, Hutton, Dunne, Collins, Warnock, N'Zogbia, Herd, Petrov, Heskey, Bent, Agbonlahor
Subs: Guzan, Jenas, Ireland, Albrighton, Delph, Clark, Cuellar

Darren Bent drives me crazy. He's consistently one of the best goalscorers in the league but his 46 points only just put him ahead of the likes of Graham and Zamora because he simply refuses to contribute anything in the other scoring categories. Luis Suarez has the same number of assists (7) in 1900 minutes at Liverpool as Bent does over his last 7400 minutes at Villa/Sunderland. Suarez of course has slowed of late so I'm not saying one is better than the other here, more noting that Bent's upside will always be limited by this one dimensionality.

Such problems do not befall Agbonlahor and I've really been sleeping on him so far this year. I continue to be spooked by the underlying numbers with just 8 shots on target (5 resulting in goals) and 12 key passes (6 resulting in assets) not looking particularly special. That said, he continues to have fantasy success and defy logic so if you hold him, there's a strong argument to just ride the hot hand. I would point out that the fixtures look tough in the coming weeks and Agbonlahor hasn't really set the world alight against the best teams, but then again, I've been doubting him all year, so perhaps I need to find a new indicator for the Villa front man.

Blackburn
Robinson, Lowe, Samba, Givet, Olsson, Rochina, Nzonzi, Pedersen, Hoilett, Formica, Yakubu
Subs: Bunn, Dunn, Petrovic, Blackman, Goodwillie, Vukcevic, Hanley

I like Hoilett and he's worth owning in custom league's where depth is useful (indeed he's served me fairly well in the SimPrem league) but in the main pl.com game 6.0m is too steep a price for a player on such an inconsistent team. Samba picked up an injury here which should finally encourage to the 4% of managers who cling to him to move on and stop overpaying for the chance of the odd goal (which is more than offset by the ZERO clean sheets Blackburn have managed this term).

Bolton
Jaaskelainen, Riley, Cahill, Wheater, Robinson, M Davies, Muamba, Reo-Coker, Eagles, Klasnic, K Davies
Subs: Bogdan, Sanli, Petrov, Knight, Pratley, Ngog, Kakuta

Where did this come from? Klasnic has now scored 5 times in 6 starts but yet cannot seem to find guaranteed starting minutes in this side. Petrov's decent start has lost pace over the past few weeks and having started on the bench for Bolton's best performance of the year, it's tough to see him earning an immediate return to the starting eleven. Riley was superb at full back but he is still very much a depth player and will likely sacrifice his spot to Steinsson or Boyata in the coming week or two.

Eagles continues to tease us and as soon as he looks dead and buried, he earns a spot back in the starting eleven and racks up 33 points in 4 gameweeks. He's obviously back on the radar but with the big games coming against Wigan and Stoke, I'm somewhat reluctant to chase the points here. He's worth thinking about again though.

Chelsea
Cech, Ivanovic, Alex, Terry, Cole, Ramires, Mikel, Lampard, Mata, Sturridge, Malouda
Subs: Turnbull, Romeu, Torres, Meireles, Bosingwa, Lukaku, Kalou

The benching of Bosingwa really hurt here, as his owners sat through four weeks of crappiness (1, 2, -2 and 0 points) only for Chelsea to notch just their second clean sheet of the season with Bosingwa watching on the sidelines. Villas-Boas has shown a commitment to his countryman this year so I'm not too concerned about the long term prospects. though Ivanovic is clearly a useful replacement to have in the background, and thus Bosingwa's value does take a small hit.

I mentioned a few weeks back that I thought Lampard was worthy of fantasy consideration once again and he's done pretty well in the past few weeks. It's tough to spend ~12.0m on him these days but with so many other premium players struggling and the Chelsea front line being a rotation nightmare, Lampard is once again an intriguing prospect. For all his praise (none more so than this site), it's pretty amazing to think that Silva has just 6 points more than Lampard through 11 weeks. I'm not there yet given the availability of others at a lower price, but I am certainly interested, which seemed unlikely at the start of the year.

Everton
Howard, Hibbert, Heitinga, Jagielka, Baines, Coleman, Neville, Rodwell, Drenthe, Osman, Saha.
Subs: Mucha, Bilyaletdinov, Stracqualursi, McFadden, Distin, Cahill, Vellios

It's amazing to see Distin and Cahill on the bench by choice here but it's just another piece of evidence of how badly this Everton team are struggling at the moment. 15 forwards have more points than all Everton forwards combined, while Drenthe is the only (somewhat) bright spot in a midfield which has totally collapsed from prior years where it served as a point of strength. The only point of interest with this team is how long the remaining 6% of managers will continue to hold Baines (6 points over the last 7 gameweeks).

Fulham
Schwarzer, Grygera, Baird, Hangeland, Riise, Duff, Murphy, Sidwell, Dempsey, Dembele, Zamora.
Subs: Etheridge, Kelly, Kasami, Ruiz, Etuhu, Frei, Briggs

The backline had started to settle down at Craven Cottage but now Grygera has taken a knock and Senderos appears to be ready to return to action, thus muddying the waters once again. Baird's versatility appears to be serving him well and he looks like the best value for those unable to bring in Riise or Hangeland (that is, of course, if you can see value in this inconsistent unit).

Liverpool
Reina, Johnson, Skrtel, Agger, Jose Enrique, Henderson, Lucas, Adam, Downing, Carroll, Suarez.
Subs: Doni, Maxi, Coates, Kuyt, Spearing, Kelly, Bellamy

Gerrard is injured again (ankle) and so Henderson got a rare start here. With Kuyt and Carroll also vying for what essentially boils down to two positions, he still isn't guaranteed minutes and remains too risky to own. The rest of the team looks pretty settled, though aren't really hitting the heights some forecast with just 3 goals in the last three promising games (Norwich, West Brom and Swansea).

Defensively however, this unit is emerging as one of the best around with 3 blanks in their last 5 and just 2 goals conceded. Jose Enrique (who also enjoys excellent key passes numbers) remains the top pick but anyone looking to double down can also feel confident in Skrtel's place in this side. Such a strategy looks ill advised in the short term though, with Chelsea and City on the horizon for Dalglish's men.

I haven't seen any of Suarez's last three games so I feel a bit uncomfortable being too harsh on the front man, but the facts speak for themselves and it's now 4 games without a goal, despite the seemingly weak opposition. I'm not advocating we abandon Suarez just yet, but the lack of goals for Liverpool is certainly becoming a concern. Again, with the tricky fixtures coming up, anyone holding the Uruguayan should at least be considering his options over the international break.

Man City
Hart, Richards, Savic, Lescott, Kolarov, Barry, Toure Yaya, Milner, Silva, Aguero, Dzeko
Subs: Pantilimon, Zabaleta, Johnson, Nasri, Clichy, Toure, Balotelli

Remember when a group of managers bailed on Silva and crowned Nasri the must own City midfielder after his explosive against Spurs? Well, since then he's started 4 games and topped 4 points just once. I'm not quite ready to cut Nasri from the player pool but Milner's form is clearly hurting him and his place in the first team is no longer assured. I must say I liked Silva more anyway, but with this latest slight on Nasri, I personally would sell him, as you can't afford to waste 9.5m and a City spot on your bench.

Kompany missed out here due to suspension and will presumably return next week, though Savic's start (along with his start against Villareal) suggests he has firmly planted himself as the team's number three centre back, and the go too man should Lescott or Kompany suffer injury or suspension.

Aguero has slowed of late while Dzeko continues to roll and there is growing rationale for opting to go with the cheaper player in Dzeko. I still think Aguero finishes the season with more goals and fantasy points but there is definitely merit in going with Dzeko if you could use the cash elsewhere (and to be honest, this year, who couldn't use an extra couple of million to use on your backline?). Three of the next four homes games see City welcome teams with shaky road records and so its likely you'll want one of this pair in the side as soon as possible. Which one really depends on how you want to set your team up.

Man Utd
Lindegaard, Jones, Ferdinand, Vidic, Evra, Nani, Fletcher, Rooney, Park, Welbeck, Hernandez
Subs: De Gea, Evans, Berbatov, Carrick, Fabio Da Silva, Valencia, Diouf

The big story continues to be Rooney's deployment, which has already been discussed at length all over the web in my absence (see the always excellent Fantasy Football Scout here). You have to think that Rooney will push forward again in the future and this move appears to be a short term measure to steady the ship rather than a long term shift in philosophy, but as we all know, fantasy football is too short of a season to wait on managers to prove a point with a 12.0m player. The next two games (@Swa and New) are much harder than they sound (Swansea have conceded once at home, Newcastle just 3 times on the road) and with Rooney's price plummeting, it might be a sound idea to get out now (if you haven't already) and reassess in a couple of weeks. Gun to my head, I think he's back to normal against Swansea but I would understand anyone's nerves in this area and someone like Van Persie looks awfully attractive as a replacement.

Young missed out with injury though his absence will presumably be short lived. His form however (at least in terms of fantasy production) is worrying to say the least and he's been left behind by the likes of Silva, Van der Vaart and Nani in recent weeks. Indeed, its tough to place Young in that group's class at the moment and he'd be close to the top of my sell list for the 15% of managers who still hold him, though the situation is far from desperate.

Newcastle

Krul, Simpson, Coloccini, S Taylor, R Taylor, Marveaux, Cabaye, Guthrie, Gutierrez, Best, Ba
Subs: Elliot, Santon, Ben Arfa, Lovenkrands, Perch, Gosling, Sammy Ameobi

As we said a couple of weeks back, R Taylor is here to stay, though with his price now matching S Taylor's, I'd prefer to go with the latter who faces less competition (and threat of resting) as the tough part of the season kicks in. The next three games are pretty much as tough as it gets (@MnC, @MnU, Che) but after that they open up nicely and Ba could find himself as the pick of all sub-8.0m forwards.

Norwich
Ruddy, Naughton, R Martin, Barnett, Tierney, Bennett, Johnson, Hoolahan, Pilkington, Holt, Morison
Subs: Rudd, Crofts, Surman, Fox, Jackson, Wilbraham, De Laet

Fox missed out here for the first time since GW4, with Pilkington once again the man to own. Given his price (and the previously discussed underlying stats) I might still shade towards Johnson, but Pilkington is making a strong case for consideration as he continues his good run of form.

QPR
Kenny, Young, Gabbidon, Ferdinand, Traore, Mackie, Barton, Faurlin, Wright-Phillips, Bothroyd, Helguson
Subs: Murphy, Orr, Hill, Derry, Smith, Andrade, Puncheon

Gabbidon is back and is once again a nice 4.0m pickup (don't be too concerned about shipping 6 goals to Spurs and City, this is a decent defensive unit against weaker sides). Taarabt appears to have simply been benched for this game and with Warnock appearing to lose faith with him, it is finally time to cut him from the player pool. He's served as a good reminder to this blogger about getting overly excited by names and talent and he never really did enough (despite a couple of good displays) to warrant the faith I've shown him this year. It'll take a heck of a turnaround to get into my good graces again.

Stoke
Begovic, Wilkinson, Woodgate, Upson, Huth, Pennant, Delap, Whelan, Walters, Crouch, Jerome.
Subs: Sorensen, Higginbotham, Jones, Diao, Whitehead, Shotton, Palacios

Shawcross' absence is good for Upson and Woodgate's minutes though how valuable they will be in his absence is questionable. The pairing lack the pace required in today's Premier League and they were cut apart by Newcastle (after Shawcross' departure) and Bolton with relative ease. QPR and Blackburn at home in the next two might be a good tonic to anyone's problems but this unit is certainly worse without Shawcross if he can't shake off his injuries soon.

Sunderland
Westwood, Bardsley, Brown, Turner, Richardson, Larsson, Cattermole, Colback, Sessegnon, Bendtner, Wickham
Subs: Carson, Gardner, Ji, Meyler, McClean, Elmohamady, Egan

Sessegnon's value was largely derived from his advanced deployment, which may be a thing of the past with Bendtner and Wickham starting up top. It's a shame given he had started to find his scoring touch and we'll monitor closely how the team develops over the next couple of weeks before making any rash decisions. That said, the presence of Wickham clearly hurts Sessegnon one way or another (be it by deeper deployment or rotation risk) and alternative plans should be at least considered if not put into action.

Swansea
Vorm, Rangel, Monk, Williams, Taylor, Gower, Britton, Allen, Routledge, Graham, Dyer
Subs: Tremmel, Sinclair, Lita, Moore, Agustien, Richards, Moras

Sinclair was a surprise benching here, though it could be a symptom of the opposition rather than an indictment of Sinclair's play. Swansea's fixtures look pretty good after the United game in GW12 and one would predict Sinclair will find himself back in the starting lineup to benefit from those games. Whether or not he is worth 1.5m more than his teammates is another issue, but this single game shouldn't have a massive impact on that debate.

Tottenham
Friedel, Walker, Kaboul, King, Assou-Ekotto, Lennon, Parker, Modric, Bale, Van der Vaart, Adebayor
Subs: Cudicini, Defoe, Bassong, Corluka, Livermore, Sandro, Pienaar.

This team looks like the first choice and several of these players make good fantasy options despite the goals coming from some of the less owned players this week. Bale has been feast or famine this year with three double digit games and seven of 3 points or less. I try to avoid having too many up and down players but providing you are set to play him every week, it doesn't really matter how the points come, and thus Bale deserves ownership consideration. Spurs have scored twice or more in 8 straight games and the upcoming fixtures look nothing short of fantastic. I would still target Van der Vaart as the main midfielder to own but if your budget doesn't stretch that far or you want to double down, Bale is a good option in the middle of the park: a position which is lacking star power this year.

West Brom
Foster, Reid, McAuley, Olsson, Jones, Morrison, Dorrans, Brunt, Cox, Gera, Thomas
Subs: Fulop, Tchoyi, Shorey, Mulumbu, Dawson, Thorne, Fortune

Odemwingie missed out again and his fitness is a real concern, keeping him out of the player pool. With Long sidelined for several weeks this side lacks attacking options and Brunt's value is diminished as sides should be able to smother the creativity in the middle without fear of being exposed by the pace of the absent frontmen. With the talented pair out, it's tough to see much value here in the near future.

Wigan
Al Habsi, Boyce, Gohouri, Figueroa, Alcaraz, Watson, Moses, Diame, Jones, Di Santo, Rodallega.
Subs: Pollitt, McCarthy, Crusat, Gomez, McArthur, Sammon, Lopez

The team is settled and still looks okay on paper, but they just aren't getting anything done. Watson's penalty duties (should he hold onto them after missing this week) give him some value, while Moses' underlying numbers fail to hide the fact that he has failed to top 3 points all year. There really isn't much to like here, though if you still hold anyone, it's probably worth giving them the home game against Blackburn before ditching them.

Wolverhampton
Hennessey, Stearman, Johnson, Berra, Ward, Edwards, Henry, Guedioura, Hunt, O'Hara, Doyle
Subs: De Vries, Elokobi, Ebanks-Blake, Fletcher, Jarvis, Hammill, Milijas

O'Hara has had the best underlying numbers in Wolves midfield for some time, but it is only in the last 3 weeks that these have translated into fantasy production. With Jarvis finding himself rotated with increasing frequency, it looks like the former Spurs man is the best play here. Fletcher was fit enough to make the bench but his services weren't required, so we will have to see if he slots straight back into the team when fit. He looks like he could be excellent value at 5.9m if given a sustained run in the side when fully fit.

Player Pool movements
In: Walcott, Jenkinson, Eagles, S Fletcher
Out: M Petrov, Jagielka, Gerrard, Taarabt, Moses, Jarvis

Gameweek 9 Preview (abbreviated)

2011-10-21T19:51:00.001+01:00

The weekly preview is cut short for this week and the next couple as I'm heading to Egypt for a couple of weeks. I'll try and get as much access as possible but updates may be a bit limited: