tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1020279998144194267.post8548147846173830921..comments2024-03-21T06:33:44.760-04:00Comments on PLFantasy: Lessons from historyChrishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14124060389050404946noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1020279998144194267.post-36388088959581975932010-12-08T17:48:01.282-05:002010-12-08T17:48:01.282-05:00Thanks for all the comments. Weekly preview to fol...Thanks for all the comments. Weekly preview to follow shortly (hopefully) followed by a piece on predicting team goals more effectivelyChrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14124060389050404946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1020279998144194267.post-49740765713395110822010-12-08T17:43:34.253-05:002010-12-08T17:43:34.253-05:00Simon - I agree with Tevez and Berbatov but I stil...Simon - I agree with Tevez and Berbatov but I still don't think Nasri is must own. I agree that he has been playing well and I agree that he will probably more significant minutes but I just don't see Wenger freezing out Arshavin, Walcott, Rosicky etc completely. If you are okay with a player whom might drop a 1 pointer/not play every 3 or 4 weeks then go ahead but for me I think better options can potentially be found.<br /><br />As for the focus on fixtures v team performance, this is something I am going to look at this week to try and understand which is a better indicator.<br /><br />Manamongst - Wenger sold Pires, Vieira, Henry, Petit etc etc Nasri would no doubt be in the team if they played a cup final next week but will he play every week?<br /><br />I know people aren't sold on my take on Nasri but where do you think he'll play? The only way it works is if either (a) Fabregas moves into the 2 centre mid positions which is against what Wenger has done to date of (b) Arshavin, Walcott etc are dropped every week.Chrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14124060389050404946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1020279998144194267.post-91007022240070723422010-12-08T11:39:04.221-05:002010-12-08T11:39:04.221-05:00I tried to tell you when you were talking about th...I tried to tell you when you were talking about that craziness, Wenger's French, do you thinkk he wouldn't shop Old ass Rosicky or Arshavin?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1020279998144194267.post-17335947458876803462010-12-08T08:32:47.928-05:002010-12-08T08:32:47.928-05:00Andrew: Thanks for that, I hadn't seen Chris&#...Andrew: Thanks for that, I hadn't seen Chris's analysis on these correlations. That said, having read through it, it certainly looks as though this season has rewritten the rule-book. Last season I can see that there was a good correlation between points and price with forwards, with Drogba, Rooney et al scoring by far the highest. A slightly lesser correlation in midfield with the likes of Lampard, Malouda, Fabregas etc scoring high, but with the odd bargain in there too. While there was very little correlation in Defence with last years highlights (Dunne, Baines, Hangeland etc) being relatively cheap while some more expensive choices scoring very low indeed. This year, however, I can see very little correlation with Price and Points. A glance at the most expensive players in teh game right now highlights so many poor value options: Lampard, Fabregas, Gerrard, Torres, Rooney, Van Persie, Evra, Vermaelen etc. I know that many of these are due to injury, but even if we look at the top scorers to date, there are so many bargain players available, I think at one point, if not right now, it was possible to actually buy the top 15 players for around 102/103 million (which most people have at the moment. What are your thoughts?Simon Ghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16522257775234454059noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1020279998144194267.post-97517204003036352010-12-07T18:38:13.386-05:002010-12-07T18:38:13.386-05:00Hi Chris,
I don't write in, but always read y...Hi Chris,<br /><br />I don't write in, but always read your blog, and luckily, only sometimes follow your advice. :) Keep your chin up and thank you for all the insightful analysis. You will bounce back. I ended up with the exact same scenario as you with Van der Vaart, but was lucky enough to replace him last week with Nasri. As far as Berbatov, we all have one of those on our teams. Bale and Malouda have been my two non-producing midfielders. Malouda is already jettisoned, but for some reason I'm still holding on to Bale. Finally, my big decision of the week is whether to replace Tevez (suspended) with Rooney (home vs Arsenal on Monday night). I'm going to wait until Friday to decide if I want to pull the trigger on this.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06644387168288480535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1020279998144194267.post-56986047376438120602010-12-07T17:41:12.784-05:002010-12-07T17:41:12.784-05:00Don'y be sorry Chris. Nobody expects you to be...Don'y be sorry Chris. Nobody expects you to be a fortune teller. Wife going on labour on game day, other injuries happen. something unpredictable. <br />Always appreciating your stats and analysis. CheersUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14092643171990873857noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1020279998144194267.post-62898980701515246462010-12-07T13:52:07.620-05:002010-12-07T13:52:07.620-05:00Simon: Earlier in the season, Chris did some stati...Simon: Earlier in the season, Chris did some statistical analysis about weighing different correlations between points and other factors such as fixture strength, price for the position, etc. If you haven't looked at it, I would check it out. I was definitely surprised at the weak correlation between fixture strength and points... really made me re-think my strategy this season.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14896703153560168328noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1020279998144194267.post-76077893903075527132010-12-07T08:09:49.749-05:002010-12-07T08:09:49.749-05:00Correction: 'hance' (?) should read 'b...Correction: 'hance' (?) should read 'but'Simon Ghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16522257775234454059noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1020279998144194267.post-23393181408726351022010-12-07T08:08:26.098-05:002010-12-07T08:08:26.098-05:00As much as I strongly agree with you evidence-base...As much as I strongly agree with you evidence-based, statistical reasoning as a way of choosing players and making transfers that would otherwise not be obvious, I think it's important not to overlook the more blatant facts that are presented to us. i.e.:<br /><br />Nasri has been scoring points like a daemon, must-own imho.<br /><br />Tevez has scored solidly throughout the season, which makes him a great every-week player. <br /><br />Berb might have scored 5 last week, but averaged over the 9 scoreless weeks previous, this doesn't amount to much - avoid.<br /><br />Great players are not always awarded for it if a. they play for poor performing teams, and b. they are overlooked by the FPL people. Everton's Baines for instance was immense at the weekend, hance only one BP.<br /><br />To sum-up - I think there should be less focus on the fixtures a team has, and more on the team's, and particularly the player's points-scoring form.Simon Ghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16522257775234454059noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1020279998144194267.post-44046919473996315012010-12-07T07:11:52.135-05:002010-12-07T07:11:52.135-05:00Great article Chris. Don't worry you've be...Great article Chris. Don't worry you've been extremely unlucky but you will bounce back. All your choices have been rationale so far. Ultimately this is what makes the difference over 30 gameweeks!Mister Sardinehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08450496421198077678noreply@blogger.com