tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1020279998144194267.post3698085951070320095..comments2024-03-21T06:33:44.760-04:00Comments on PLFantasy: Gameweek 23 Captain RankingsChrishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14124060389050404946noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1020279998144194267.post-71914305385830121632012-01-29T01:06:02.403-05:002012-01-29T01:06:02.403-05:00Mitchell - I think you're on a good course. Th...Mitchell - I think you're on a good course. The team looks very good and you've identified a good list of differential ideas to change things up going forward. I really like Zamora and Mata as high upside differentials. <br /><br />As for the best formation, the success of the big name forwards is making three forwards look very attractive while the struggles of the 'big' defenses makes 3 at the back look like a good way to go. I'd therefore agree that 3-4-3 is often going to be your best bet. I don't generally favour one and take each week as it comes but, without looking, I'd guess I've gone 3-4-3 or 4-4-2 most often (I had a budget forward in Graham until my wildcard).Chrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14124060389050404946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1020279998144194267.post-44918373378340402072012-01-29T00:58:33.498-05:002012-01-29T00:58:33.498-05:00Mr Greedy - it's a good point and one I haven&...Mr Greedy - it's a good point and one I haven't elaborated on yet as I was planning a piece for FFS on the very issue. I will touch on it here though. Standard deviation in itself isn't that useful, but as supplement to the other data I think it has some value. You're right that a player who scored 12-2-6-4 would have more than value a 2-3-2-2 player, but how about a player who scored 6-5-6-7 ? I would definitely want to own the more consistent player, and if playing from a strong position would want to captain him too (if playing catch up you may opt for upside).<br /><br />You're right that as stats go it's not the best, but I thought it had just enough value to warrant inclusion.Chrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14124060389050404946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1020279998144194267.post-5778116518211286882012-01-29T00:52:59.224-05:002012-01-29T00:52:59.224-05:00Chemikills - it's a downside that the rankings...Chemikills - it's a downside that the rankings now update every week, and thinking about it, if I were to save the tables as a new filename each week, I might be able to avoid this. If anyone uses Tableau let me know, or else I will keep experimenting to get this right.<br /><br />The script looks interesting. Are there any stats you or anyone else would like added to the player data tables?Chrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14124060389050404946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1020279998144194267.post-59322835699082906482012-01-29T00:49:20.728-05:002012-01-29T00:49:20.728-05:00Stoosher - it looks like Van Persie will play tomo...Stoosher - it looks like Van Persie will play tomorrow, and hence, you're right, at some point he's going to get a game off in the league, given the Milan game is now just over two weeks away. You'd point to Blackburn at home as a more likely fixture for him to take a break but he's going to be a risk for the next few weeks until he finally sits. It's a consideration for sure, but I've kind of given up trying to predict manager decisions, unless there's strong evidence.Chrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14124060389050404946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1020279998144194267.post-3045608670059356292012-01-29T00:46:59.543-05:002012-01-29T00:46:59.543-05:00Vanilla - it's a great question and one I'...Vanilla - it's a great question and one I've thought about trying to answer before. I've never been able to really come up with anything better than 'you need the new player to outscore his replacement by 4 points' to break even. Given that few players average 6 points a game, you;re left with a situation where the only obvious 4 point situations are where:<br />(a) you only have 10 players and thus your new arrival would only need to score 4 points to break even (with everything else being upside), or<br />(b) double gameweeks, where the new transfer is all but guaranteed 4 points and thus only needs to earn 2 more to help you break even.<br /><br />Now I have the new '% created' stat, I might try and make this analysis more scientific. If a player gets an assist or scores a goal, he is very likely to hit the magic 6 point line, so we should be able to work out a point at which the risk might be worth it.Chrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14124060389050404946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1020279998144194267.post-12074202857605181742012-01-29T00:37:10.940-05:002012-01-29T00:37:10.940-05:00Rutwik - a few people have asked about team value ...Rutwik - a few people have asked about team value before and honestly it's something I haven't had much success with in the past. I'm going to add a quick post on this after I answer these questions, as I have a few things to say on this issue.Chrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14124060389050404946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1020279998144194267.post-13696344964472818042012-01-29T00:32:37.928-05:002012-01-29T00:32:37.928-05:00Thanks JS-Shadow - the tables are still a work in ...Thanks JS-Shadow - the tables are still a work in progress and as Chemikilis points out below, it's not ideal that the old posts now update, though it makes my life ALOT easier by having them auto update.Chrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14124060389050404946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1020279998144194267.post-87251551709253224812012-01-29T00:31:47.826-05:002012-01-29T00:31:47.826-05:00David - The team looks great overall. There isn...David - The team looks great overall. There isn't a single player I would be targetting to sell, though my general concerns about a lack of differentiation may apply depending on your league situation.<br /><br />As for this week, the stats say play Vorm but most people's gut would lead them to take Sunderland given their opponent. If you believe the team is more important, take Vorm, if you believe the opponent is the key to clean sheets, take Mig.<br /><br />I'd play Fletcher on the basis that I believe he will contribute more consistently than McClean over a large sample size, but McClean is a useful play this week too. Liverpool can be good at the back and Wolves aren;t elite, though the generally get a goal or two at home and you like Fletch to be involved in most things they do.Chrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14124060389050404946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1020279998144194267.post-23481972618564397382012-01-28T10:58:26.277-05:002012-01-28T10:58:26.277-05:00Hi Chris,
I've used my wildcard and took on y...Hi Chris,<br /><br />I've used my wildcard and took on your advice on squandering a 6m midfielder each week on the bench. My current team for week 23 is <br /><br />Vorm / Skrtel, Evans J, Dawson / Dempsey, Bale (VC), McClean, Gerrard / Fletcher, Van Persie (C), Rooney<br /><br />Bench: Mingolet, Richards, Moses, Caulker.<br /><br />My reasoning for benching Richards is his poor record away from home and the logic that King is more likely to be rested for Wigan at home allowing Dawson to play. If Dawson doesn't play, being a defender he is less likely to get junk time in last 20 mins or so.<br /><br />For the rest of the season I have 0.6m in the bank, no wildcard and not planning a transfer this week in case there is some activity before midnight Wednesday (not expecting much) I'm c65K overall, top or there abouts in my smaller mini leagues but my main goals are to top 2k points and catch someone who is 79 points ahead of me (to win money)<br /><br />I have a habit of using 4 points most weeks and have a 50% strike rate of it being worth using.<br /><br />I'm now convinced that 3-4-3 is the best formation to use unless you have strong feeling that four clean sheets are very likely at the back.<br /><br />Players on my radar are Lindegaard in goal, Clark, Shawcross, Simpson, O'Shea and Rangel in def, Valencia, Mata and Petrov in midf and Zamora up front. While I don't want to ditch too many high scoring players, I do need a couple of differentials in the team to try and close some gaps, without getting caught myself.<br /><br />Anyone have any thoughts.Mitchell Stirlinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15055932436077463413noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1020279998144194267.post-8529133230638890682012-01-28T03:11:02.942-05:002012-01-28T03:11:02.942-05:00Loving the captain rankings, this is a great addit...Loving the captain rankings, this is a great addition to the blog. I'm just a bit worried about how useful the standard deviation statistic is. Do we necessarily want a low standard deviation from our captain? A player returning scores of 16, 6, 2, 13, 18, 2, 2 ... will have a very high S.D but be good captain material, especially if those high scores were from predictable easy home games. A player with 2, 2, 1, 2, 2, 2 ... is obv going to have a very low sd but would not be captain material. Even someone like Silva I would class his consistent 5, 6, 5, 6 style as a reason to not captain him, although he is a good VC.Mr Greedyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12932309765872687964noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1020279998144194267.post-43322682661772669782012-01-28T00:42:32.488-05:002012-01-28T00:42:32.488-05:00I was looking for a source for "points per ga...I was looking for a source for "points per game" stats to help compare some of those players that just don't get to play the full 90.<br /><br />I found this:<br />http://userscripts.org/scripts/show/34047<br /><br />It's super useful, figured some people on here might like to check it out.<br />It's a script that adds a few things to your FPL page :)<br />I'm still playing with it so can't detail everything but it's very nicechemikillshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00171833035493756254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1020279998144194267.post-69015495130495405812012-01-27T16:10:00.883-05:002012-01-27T16:10:00.883-05:00New captain rankings are really good, love it. I&#...New captain rankings are really good, love it. I'll certainly be checking them weekly rather than checking your site here and there ;)<br /><br />I was attempting to be retrospective and point out how well your rankings did. Unfortunately your previous post has updated to the new rankings so I can't ^^<br />But from memory it was very good :)chemikillshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00171833035493756254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1020279998144194267.post-18758320219235251082012-01-27T13:54:08.009-05:002012-01-27T13:54:08.009-05:00Chris - great post, these new Captain's Rankin...Chris - great post, these new Captain's Ranking posts are fantastic. I wonder if anyone else has concerns about RvP; the Guardian Squad Sheets (I know, not all that accurate) has RvP starting on Sunday in the FA Cup. Then Arsenal have Bolton next Wed and Blackburn next Sat. 3 games in 6 days. If, indeed, he starts Sunday I'm a little less confident about the armband for Bolton. Anyone seen anything on Wenger's thinking ?stooshermadnesshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03618610422051586989noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1020279998144194267.post-91009520184692927722012-01-27T13:50:00.500-05:002012-01-27T13:50:00.500-05:00Future column idea (for slow days during internati...Future column idea (for slow days during international/UCL fixtures): variables that effect how useful an astute 4pt extra transfer can be. Yes, I've had some personal success in the transfer market this season. <br />Since I have been a steady 60-70 points back right from the go (I did not own Rooney or Ashley Young for the first month, while my competitors had them captained), I have found it easier to legitimize several 2-transfer weeks. <br />I took a 4pt hit to both diversify my team (remember that GW1 freebie wildcard bungle? it was instant death to shrewd teams) and to steal a march on rising stars. <br />As a result, I am ~4.3M higher than my league-leader in team budget. This means that my "subs" are not Gower/Moses/Kelly/Morison/Graham, but more like Fletcher/Enrique/Senderos/N.Taylor. <br />This is a boon for my team, because as someone mentioned in the comments on your previous post, this has been the Year Of The Rotation Dragon. <br />As a result, my lineup decision each week is not "which matchups do I avoid" (needing to take a punt on someone like Pilkington) but rather "which matchups are strongest" and "Do I really want to sit Fletcher at home against Liverpool so I can play all 5 of my midfielders"<br />The end result remains to be seen, but I've been able to shave the 80 point gap down to 30 over the course of the last 4 gameweeks. <br />Sorry about the long winded post.vanillahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06669928024054522852noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1020279998144194267.post-19947452024728121692012-01-27T09:36:07.911-05:002012-01-27T09:36:07.911-05:00@ Rutwik
You can use this site to tell you when p...@ Rutwik<br /><br />You can use this site to tell you when players are due to rise http://www.fiso.co.uk/crackthecode.php<br />Price increases are just based on NTI (Net Transfers In). Drops are a bit more complicated I think, the number of NTO needed to result in a drop depends on how many people own the player.DLLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10411430210541750340noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1020279998144194267.post-75111365134190988482012-01-27T07:17:24.611-05:002012-01-27T07:17:24.611-05:00Hey Chris great work.. can you write one on how th...Hey Chris great work.. can you write one on how the price of a player increases or how the FPL people work it out. Coz i think the extra cash helps a lot. I have seen teams with 110 mil value. it helps a lot.<br />Thanks :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1020279998144194267.post-16285377407807065202012-01-27T02:02:46.790-05:002012-01-27T02:02:46.790-05:00Chris! Thank you so much for your efforts!
The ta...Chris! Thank you so much for your efforts!<br /><br />The table and your "GREAT" comments combined makes the your captain rankings even better!! <br /><br />Can't wait to see your next week's posting!!!!JS_shadowhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11124635772372436455noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1020279998144194267.post-46300323206146349962012-01-27T00:14:53.707-05:002012-01-27T00:14:53.707-05:00Hi Chris! Thanks for the excellent info you put ou...Hi Chris! Thanks for the excellent info you put out every week! I am loving the tables by the way. What are your views on my team for this week:<br /><br />Vorm<br />Kompany, Riise, BAE<br />Silva, Dempsey, Bale(VC), Sess, McClean<br />Aguero, RVP(C)<br /><br />Mignolet / Fletcher, Williamson, Huth<br /><br />Going with stats from your tables I have chosen Vorm over Mignolet. You have the same keeper combo, which one will you be playing?<br /><br />Stats say play Fletcher but stats also say Liverpool are one of the best away defenses regardless of what happened last week. My gut says play McClean.<br /><br />What do you think of my team overall?<br /><br />Thanks again!Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11411925012553590143noreply@blogger.com