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Showing posts from November, 2008

Gameweek 15 Diary Part II

Here we are, a super sunday if ever there was one. The Manchester derby, the two biggest London teams squaring off along with a couple of other interesting fixtures featuring fantasy studs such as Defoe, Johnson, Arteta among others. With minutes until kick off at the Middle Eastlands I am literally giddy for the action to start though I am (regrettably) predicting a United win. I can see City starting the brighter, perhaps even taking the lead though United's power and depth will possibly shine through in the end. Robinho to score first and 2-1 United pays 90-1, interesting. 13:31 We're under way and the main fantasy news is that Berbatov will start alongside Rooney and Ronaldo . Rafael gets his turn at right back making him a useful pickup for next week if Neville or Brown haven't returned. 13:38 Measured start by both teams, who are both trying to keep their shape. Rafael has been bombing forward though which could leave space in behind him as the game moves on. I

Gameweek 15 Diary

Apologies for the lack of action this week, I've been away for a few days, but thankfully back in time for this week's action. I've brought in Figueroa this week for the injured Dawson as I go 4-5-1 to allow for Zaki's injury and Cole facing Liverpool. 14:57 The team news is in from around the country with a couple of fantasy impacting moves. Luke Young has been passed fit to face Fulham which makes him a great buy at 4.4m. His team mate Carew misses out which will likely mean Ashley Young playing a more advanced role. Still no Dawson for Hull, whilst Daniel Cousin drops to the bench as Phil Brown goes 4-5-1. Bolton are unchanged, where as Sunderland welcome back Scotland international Craig Gordon between the posts. Melchiot has failed to fully recover for Wigan so Taylor retains his spot at right back. 15:00 News comes out that Jimmy Bullard is wearing a scarf! Come on Jimmy, I thought you were a man's man. I will now boycott him until at least March for my team.

Gameweek 15 Last Minute News

Lets get down to business with just an hour until the deadline closes for the week. Arsenal Nasri, Adebayour and Sagna are all doubts though the BBC suggests they will all play. Arsenal don't have great fixtures for the next 5 weeks so if you have a free transfer left move these guys on, if not, I'd feel okay about starting them due to their injury status, though the pickings will be slim against Chelsea. Diaby, Walcott, Eboue, Toure, Rosicky and Eduardo are all definately out and should not be held at this time. Aston Villa Reo Coker, Carew and Cuellar are all doubts which is a shame as Villa are against a poor Fulham side this week. Luke Young appears to have shaken off his injury concerns and looks set to take his place in the side (and is a great buy at 4.4m). As for the other three, I would not buy them at this time (as I learnt with Defoe last week) though owners could probably stick them in on the assumption that if they don't start they won't come on either and

Differentiators

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As is the case every year, by November-December alot of players' teams are starting to look very similar and it is increasingly hard to differentiate your team on a weekly basis. This is proven by the fact that when certain players do well ( Ronaldo , Anelka etc) like in week 13 we all get 70+ points but when these players draw blanks you find that everyone is kicking around with 30 and 40 point totals. The following team is made up of players held by at least 20% of ALL fantasy players: The key going forward therefore is to differentiate your team wherever possible, whilst still holding on to those must have players that underpin any championship team (such as Ronaldo 2007/08). As a side note, it is interesting to note that only 6 of the 15 players above feature in the season dream team. Potential buys Many of my potential buys from the early part of the season ( Zaki , Traore etc) are now widely held so we need to look elsewhere for the next wave of players. Here are a few id

Gameweek 14 Diary

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My team is a total mess at the moment. I stupidly chanced replacing Berbatov with Defoe who I thought would recover from his cramp - wrong! Anyway, lets see how things play out before I give up just yet: FIRST HALF 15:03 Traore, Alex and Defoe all miss out so I'm using my bench (which is weak) to the max this week. Unless Ronaldo goes nuts I'm looking at a 40 point week at best here, especially if Zaki doesn't make it back on Monday. 15:05 The big news at Arsenal is that Almunia will captain the side (keeping it warm for Cesc I bet) and Gallas is out. I used to thing Gallas was asound player but his actions of late have been disgrace. Its a young side for the Gunners with Hoyte, Djorou, Song and Bendtner all featuring. The bench is full of kids including Vela and Ramsey. Good game to watch for potential fantasy bargains. 15:07 Going back to Pompey, Traore is a sell now for me. With Kranjcar and Diarra both missing out he should be in that side but Adams obviously doesn'

Injury update

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Damn those friendlies, my team is in shreds. Here's a quick run though of the injury news, with further updates to come in the week. Arsenal The big news out of the international break for the Gunners is that Walcott is out for as long as three months (shoulder). He is an obvious sell for anyone who has him. In terms of replacements, Eboue will get a game over the next few weeks, especially because Sagna is also injured (ankle). Eboue has been injured himself though maybe back this week to face City, though don't expect a clean sheet as City have scored a massive 16 in 6 at the Middle Eastlands this season. Van Persie and Adebayour both return, though Fabregas will miss out due to suspension. The seemingly out of favour Toure has also picked up a knock and will probably not figure. A rare bright spot is that Eduardo is close to returning to training. Aston Villa Martin O'Neill is sweating on the fitness of Carew this week though he could be set to return having been nam

Gameweek 13 Running Diary

With 8 games today, 6 at 3pm, its a great opportunity for a running diary to discuss all things fantasy. 14:53 Just finished watching the Bolton-Liverpool in which Liverpool cruised to victory with goals from Kuyt (who I tipped to lose form) and Gerrard (who I keep saying is overpriced). On the bright side , I bought Agger this week, who along with Reina, has given me 2 clean sheets early on in the week. Reina also got 2 save points which gives me a great start to the week. It looks like it'll be needed as both Alex and Dawson are injury doubts and my bench is garbage right now. 14:56 Team news from around the league sees Ronaldo and Berbatov in the starting line up (phew!) though Rooney (chest and calf) and Ferdinand (back) do not even make the squad. Arsenal name an unchanged side that leaves Adebayour and Toure on the bench once more. Potential steal Bendtner and blog favourite Nasri are both in. Cisse and Jones start together in Sunderland in what looks like a pote

Market Watch

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Back on October 4 th I made a few recommendations of players to buy to make a capital gain over the coming weeks. The 'portfolio' saw initial success, but a month on it is time to look at the players and see how they've performed. I will then make some more predictions for the coming weeks. Portfolio performance Here's the tips I made back on October 4 th :Not too shabby at all (especially in today's economic climate). I would have removed the sell rating on Bent a couple of weeks ago too, and in fact he's on the shortlist to be a buy at the moment (as first noted by blog reader SilentJay ). Of course, at premierleague .com you only realise half the price rise as profit, but still, its over a million made in a month that could make the difference between a Sol Campbell and a Gael Clichy , or a Joe Hart and a Pepe Reina. Of the above tips I think Ronaldo has perhaps a small margin to rise, so I consider him a hold. I think Zaki ha reached his ceiling for now

Who gets the armband?

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For those of you with Ronaldo in your team - that's a quarter of you - the weekly question is whether anyone should take the armband from your premium midfielder. Since I bought him in week 7 I have captained Ronaldo every week and he has had 2 poor weeks, 2 good weeks and 2 monster weeks, averaging 8.33 points over that 6 game stretch. Last week was a stupid move captaining him against Arsenal rather than Lampard against Blackburn , and I am now cautious about captaining him again this week. I know I know, Stoke have shipped 10 in 6 on the road, and 19 in total, and I know that Ronaldo has now scored in his last 10 domestic home games, but my question is whether he will play. Looking back to last year is encouraging as Ronaldo featured in 34 league games, and of the 4 he missed, three were due to suspension. However, with his injury over the summer potentially still lingering, will Ferguson be tempted to drop his leading man? On the other hand, you can be almost certain that

Defensive Strategy

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After this week's disaster (34 points) I am planning a reshake and I was hoping to trigger some debate as to the best way forward. My basic strategies are to either: - lose Laursen and eventually Alex and replace them with budget defenders - replace the aforementioned pair with premium defenders based on availability. The focal point of the argument is basically whether you are better off with premium defenders, midfielders, or strikers for that matter. Lets looks at the facts: Pretty good scores from some of the defenders on offer. Alex is the pick of the bunch so far and should be held by everyone until Carvalho is out. A surprise for many (including me) is the inclusion of all four Bolton defenders who have been great value so far this season. I think Steinsson is the pick due to his desire to push forward but O'Brien is a lock in that team and is great value at 4.3m. The premium players are generally towards the bottom with the notable exception of Bosingwa who has been bri

One to watch: Antonio Valencia

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Valencia has been very quiet of late, earning just 10 points in his late 4 outings. However, these games included trips to Liverpool, Portsmouth and Fulham who have three of the best 7 home defenses in the league. Previous fixtures had seen Valencia notch 27 points over the same period when the opposition was Hull, Sunderland , Spurs and City. A quick look ahead sees games against Stoke, Newcastle, Everton and West Brom who all rank in the bottom 5 in total defense this season. This will hopefully see Valencia (and in all likelihood Zaki ) return to top form and he should be a good producer for the next month or so. Valencia is being sold right now (-35000) in the past few weeks so his value could fall to 6.1. However, even at 6.2 he could be a great replacement for the slumping Denilson , Ireland or Downing.

Strength of Schedule

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One of the most overlooked aspects of Fantasy Football is the matchups our players face each week. Most players seem to simply follow trends (which can sometimes work) and pick those players who have racked up alot of points to date or in the previous week. However, this obviously ignores the fixtures on the horizon and often leads to wasted transfers and point chasing. By assigning a figure (1, 2 or 3) to each team based on their performance to date - in terms of goals scored and conceded whilst at home and away - we can generate a strength of schedule for defensive and attacking players. Defensive players Based on the next 6 games, the best strength of schedules for defensive players are: - Liverpool 1.3 - Sunderland 1.3 - Aston Villa 1.7 - Blackburn 1.7 - Chelsea 1.7 - Hull 1.7 (an average schedule would be 2.0) This clearly shows that Liverpool have a combination of the league's second best defense along with the easiest defensive schedule, which should lead to bumper points fo

Gameweek 11 Running Diary (Part II)

16:09 Back under way in the Premier League with no notable substitutions to comment on. 16:12 100 league goals for Lampard as the goals keep flowing at Stamford Bridge. Lampard is in delicious form and is a must have for fantasy teams if your budget will stretch to it. I can almost feel the 3 bonus points. 16:13 Anelka hattrick! Okay so maybe it'll be 2 bonus points for Lamps. Another assist for Malouda too. Chelsea are rampant 5-0. 16:16 Bednar makes a claim to the top sub-6m striker title with his 4th of the season. At 5.4 he might be worth a look. 16:17 United get their 4th through Vidic, assisted by Rooney. That's Vidic's first this season. 16:22 West Brom take the lead as they punish 10 man Blackburn, no points for identifying the turning point of that game! This time its a sub-5m man, Ishmael Miller, who has tempted me in the past. If he continues to play he is a steal at 4.9m. Only the second time this season the Baggies have bagged two. 16:26 As we stand Pure Juice